摘要:

Controversy has arisen concerning the extent near eradication of malaria affects mortality in tropical countries. Guesses of malaria's contribution to the classic fall in mortality in post-war Sri Lanka have varied from zero to 100 percent, while more serious estimates range from 21 percent (Gray 1974) to 48 percent (Newman 1965, 1970). In this article a general model is devised in which the previous estimating equations may be embedded. The Box-Cox approach to nonlinear regression analysis is then used to estimate close approximations to this model. The method yields a “best” estimate of 44 percent but also yields fairly wide margins of error.

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1977.10480988

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1977

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models are developed for birth time series, and their relationship with classical models for population growth is investigated. Parsimonious versions for the ARIMA models are obtained which retain the most important pieces of information including the length of generation of the population. The technique is applied to birth time series data for Norway.

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1977.10480989

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1977

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

A procedure is presented for finding clusters of individuals in situations where every individual is classified with respect to each of a set of attributes, which may have ordered states (interval or ordinal) or nonordered states. The procedure is based on a probabilistic measure of similarity generated entirely from the given data. It can use but does not require measurement data, permits mixtures of kinds of attributes, and has been successfully used to reveal nonindependence of attributes as well as to cluster for taxonomic purposes. It appears to give results with measurement data nearly identical to those of methods that require such data.

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1977.10480990

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1977

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

A procedure for rating high school or college football teams is developed by applying linear-model methodology to the point spread for each game. The model includes effects for the home-field advantage and for the mean performance levels of the participating teams. The procedure can be modified to use only win-loss information or to ignore victory margins greater than a given margin. When applied to the results of the 1975 college football season, it produced predictions whose accuracy compares favorably with those of sportswriters and bookmakers.

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1977.10480991

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1977

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

Home value plays an important role in a variety of fields of research. In this paper, three commonly used measures of home value are evaluated and compared using a framework developed by Jöreskog and Goldberger (1975) for estimation of causal models containing unobserved variables. The paper extends ideas presented by Kain and Quigley (1972) and Kish and Lansing (1954).

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1977.10480992

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1977

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

Auditors wishing to estimate the total amount of errors in a set of accounts have tended to use estimation procedures which rely on approximate normality for large sample sizes. Since this reliance is often not well-founded for sample sizes used in auditing practice, efforts have been made to circumvent this difficulty. This paper will briefly describe these efforts and then present a new approach based on the multinomial probability distribution which yields confidence bounds with known confidence levels for all sample sizes.

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1977.10480993

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1977

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

Procedures which classify individuals into discrete categories are often evaluated by the fraction of individuals correctly classified. If the individual behavior is truly stochastic rather than deterministic, the expected fraction of correct classifications would be less than one, even when the procedure is based upon perfect estimates of every individual's probability of belonging to a category. For the binary case of two categories, the expected fraction which is correctly classified is between 50 and 100 percent. The exact value depends upon the mixing distribution of probabilities in the population.

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1977.10480994

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1977

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

In the two-way contingency table with ordered categories, commonly used measures of association include Γ, τb, τc, the correlation coefficient, and Spearman's rank correlation. We propose a new formula for the asymptotic standard error (ase) of each statistic, and compare its behavior to that of previous formulas when used in a test of the hypothesis that the measure is zero.

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1977.10480995

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1977

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

A recent paper by Smith and Charrow (1975) shows how easily misunderstandings about statistical independence can confuse assessment of the extent to which a combination of unusual traits reinforces evidence against a suspect. A simple example illustrates the importance to the calculation of a probability of exact specification of the way in which data and ancillary information are obtained.

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1977.10480996

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1977

数据来源: Taylor

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1977.10480997

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1977

数据来源: Taylor