摘要:

This article considers the implications of recent research on judgmental processes for the assessment of subjective probability distributions. It is argued that since man is a selective, sequential information processing system with limited capacity, he is ill-suited for assessing probability distributions. Various studies attesting to man's difficulties in acting as an “intuitive statistician” are summarized in support of this contention. The importance of task characteristics on judgmental performance is also emphasized. A critical survey of the probability assessment literature is provided and organized around five topics: (1) the “meaningfulness” of probability assessments; (2) methods of eliciting distributions; (3) feedback and evaluation of assessors; (4) differential ability of groups of assessors and (5) the problems of eliciting a single distribution from a group of assessors. Conclusions from the analysis with respect to future work include the need to capitalize on cognitive simplification mechanisms; making assessors aware of both human limitations and the effects of task characteristics; and emphasizing feedback concerning the nature of the task at hand.

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1975.10479858

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1975

数据来源: Taylor

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1975.10479859

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1975

数据来源: Taylor

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1975.10479860

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1975

数据来源: Taylor

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1975.10479861

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1975

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

Birth and marriage series are viewed as simultaneous mixed auto-regressive and moving average processes with known coefficients, subject to random rates of nuptiality and marital fertility. The theoretical spectra and cross-spectrum are calculated under various hypotheses and compared to empirical estimates for historical birth and marriage series. We reject the “natural fertility” hypothesis and conclude that nuptiality and marital fertility were equally variable and very highly correlated. We also use the model to explain how the age structure of reproduction and nuptiality and duration structure of marital fertility act as filters which transform white noise variation into 30-year cycles in series of births and marriages.

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1975.10479862

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1975

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

Extending earlier work by the authors [3, 4], this article examines in more detail the internal and external behavior of a jury. The internal analysis sheds light on the decision-making process from the first ballot position to the final outcome. Data in Kalven and Zeisel [6] have been employed to test the tenability of the models. The external analysis explores questions regarding the correctness of jury decisions and the effect of changes in jury size and in majority requirements for decisions.

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1975.10479863

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1975

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

In 1961, James and Stein exhibited an estimator of the mean of a multivariate normal distribution having uniformly lower mean squared error than the sample mean. This estimator is reviewed briefly in an empirical Bayes context. Stein's rule and its generalizations are then applied to predict baseball averages, to estimate toxomosis prevalence rates, and to estimate the exact size of Pearson's chi-square test with results from a computer simulation. In each of these examples, the mean square error of these rules is less than half that of the sample mean.

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1975.10479864

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1975

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

An account is given of a recently devised method of prediction based on sample reuse techniques. It is most useful in low structure data paradigms that involve minimal assumptions. A series of applications demonstrating the technique is presented.

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1975.10479865

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1975

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

This article presents a new randomizing device to obtain discrete quantitative as well as qualitative data on sensitive problems. The total number of balls in the randomizing device and the ratio of the different color balls which represent different sensitive characteristics are shown to affect the efficiency of estimates.

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1975.10479866

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1975

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

A computational algorithm is developed for generating the cumulative distribution of successes in a sequence of dependent trials, characterized by a Markov model, for which tables of the distribution may be compiled. Such tables may be used to assess the impact of such dependence on the calculation of confidence intervals and the testing of hypotheses. Examples are presented to show how such confidence intervals and hypothesis tests deteriorate with increasing dependence.

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1975.10479867

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1975

数据来源: Taylor