摘要:

In 1699 John Craig published an underappreciated book on the probability of historical events. A new interpretation of Craig's work is offered, and it is argued that his formula for the probability of testimony was tantamount to a logistic model for the posterior odds. A modern model for the transmission of evidence is given that is qualitatively similar to Craig's, and Craig's attempt to date the Second Coming of Christ is discussed. Finally, Craig's model is fit to more modern data (from 1882) on the birth date of Laplace.

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1986.10478346

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1986

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

Three widely used classes of methods for forecasting national populations are reviewed: demographic accounting/cohort-component methods for long-range projections, statistical time series methods for short-range forecasts, and structural modeling methods for the simulation and forecasting of the effects of policy changes. In each case, the major characteristics, strengths, and weaknesses of the methods are described. Factors that place intrinsic limits on the accuracy of population forecasts are articulated. Promising lines of additional research by statisticians and demographers are identified for each class of methods and for population forecasting generally.

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1986.10478347

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1986

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

This article presents a new approach to forecasting U.S. marital fertility, nuptiality, births, and marriages. The analysis represents a wedding of demographic and statistical time series in models amenable to Box-Jenkins techniques of model identification, estimation, diagnosis, and forecasting. The models demonstrate the advantages in this approach in forecasting both rates and events as opposed to the common practice of simply forecasting events. Using the best models of indexes of fertility and nuptiality, forecasts of births and first marriages are made for the U.S. for the years 1983–2000. Analyses of these forecasts are made with discussions of their demographic realism in terms of their forecast confidence intervals.

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1986.10478348

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1986

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

Incomplete growth curve data can be analyzed by the successive differences (SD) method, which uses the difference in consecutive pairs of observations for all subjects having two or more repeated measures. We have generalized it to handle varying observation times as well by partitioning the time interval spanned by all repeated measures into subintervals. The model is developed, including test statistics for the hypotheses of parallelism and of no change in response level over time, assuming parallelism. This generalized SD method is then applied to repeated serum cholesterol measurements on a subsample of 1,072 men from a prospective cohort study of 8,006 Hawaiian Japanese men living on Oahu.

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1986.10478349

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1986

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

The variance of the estimated hazard ratio between two groups when there is one categorized continuous gamma-distributed covariate is derived using exponential and Weibull regression models and asymptotic theory. Categorizing a continuous covariate increases the variance of the estimated hazard ratio and decreases the efficiency of the analysis. The efficiency of categorization is studied as a function of the strength of the relation between survival time and the covariate, the choice of cut points used in categorizing, and the number of categories. An application of the results to an advanced lung cancer clinical trial is given.

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1986.10478350

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1986

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

A common problem in fishery management is to infer the growth history of a population of fish from a single sample of fish. On each fish, one can measure its length at capture, age, and yearly increments between concentric annual rings in a scale. Linear models for growth from the scale increments are proposed. A method of inferring changes in length from the available data is then discussed. Results are illustrated by an example.

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1986.10478351

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1986

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

An error model for dual frame survey designs is developed. It includes components of error for sampling variance, interviewer variance, and bias in each frame. A cost model that attempts to capture the complexity of a full scale dual frame survey is presented. The error and cost models are applied to a large national survey, the National Crime Survey, and the effect that alternative levels of bias in both frames have on the optimal allocation of sample to the two frames is examined for two types of crime.

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1986.10478352

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1986

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

This article discusses two aspects of using daily expenditure records, commonly referred to as diaries, in a household expenditure survey, based on the experience of the 1979–1980 Hong Kong Household Expenditure Survey. In particular, the article investigates the determinants of the decision by individual household members to fill out diaries, conditional upon the household having agreed to participate in the survey. In addition, estimates are presented of the additional reporting that results from household members keeping individual diaries, as opposed to one member keeping one household diary book.

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1986.10478353

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1986

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

Problems involving causal inference have dogged at the heels of statistics since its earliest days. Correlation does not imply causation, and yet causal conclusions drawn from a carefully designed experiment are often valid. What can a statistical model say about causation? This question is addressed by using a particular model for causal inference (Holland and Rubin 1983; Rubin 1974) to critique the discussions of other writers on causation and causal inference. These include selected philosophers, medical researchers, statisticians, econometricians, and proponents of causal modeling.

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1986.10478354

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1986

数据来源: Taylor

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1986.10478355

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1986

数据来源: Taylor