摘要:

It is a consequence of the likelihood principle that identical likelihood functions imply identical inferences. If the rule by which sample size is determined—the stopping rule—is reflected in the likelihood function, as it should be, apparently identical likelihood functions (without allowance for stopping rule) may in fact be different. This can happen if the stopping rules are informative. If the stopping rule is informative, the analysis must take the rule into account, and additional information may be recovered by so doing. Examples of informative stopping rules are given for two simple problems in estimation of the size of finite populations, and an illustrative Bayesian analysis is shown in each problem. Other informative stopping rules are briefly discussed.

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1967.10500893

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1967

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

In the Bayesian framework, quantified judgments about uncertainty are an indispensable input to methods of statistical inference and decision. Ultimately, all components of the formal mathematical models underlying inferential procedures represent quantified judgments. In this study, the focus is on just one component, the prior distribution, and on some of the problems of assessment that arise when a person tries to express prior distributions in quantitative form. The objective is to point toward assessment procedures that can actually be used.

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1967.10500894

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1967

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

In this paper the problem of choosing among point estimators on the basis of their small sample properties is discussed from the sampling point of view. The indeterminacy of most Monte Carlo studies is analysed and resolved within the framework of statistical decision theory. A first order autoregressive model is worked through in detail both for its own sake and to illustrate how a complete Monte Carlo study might be done.

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1967.10500895

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1967

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

Although there are many linear least squares programs available for use on the electronic computer, the algorithms specified in many of these programs are numerically more appropriate for the desk calculator than for the electronic computer. Routines which may be efficient for desk calculators may not be efficient for electronic computers. Since most computers carry about eight digits in the calculations, routines which do not take the problem of round-off errors and truncation into account may produce inaccurate numerical results.1The difficulty is that the user will not know whether the results are accurate. Experiments with routine test problems using economic data indicated that either the data must be modified to fit the program or that the program must be altered to fit the data before numerical accuracy could be obtained on most programs tested. If the full potential of the electronic computer is to be achieved, an understanding of the basic arithmetic operations and their effect on the accuracy of the results is essential.

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1967.10500896

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1967

数据来源: Taylor

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1967.10500897

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1967

数据来源: Taylor

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1967.10500898

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1967

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

Given a national census and a life table we may wish to infer the birth rate and hence the rate of natural increase. The model for making the inference here presented specifies the form of the preceding births and an intuitively selected life table if death statistics are not available. A signal on the appropriateness of the model is provided by (a) the resemblance of the age distribution derived from the model to the observed age distribution, and (b) the closeness of the inferred death rate to the observed death rate which has been implicitly fed into the computation; when either of these disparities is too great no result is printed out. Three other ways of obtaining an estimate of births are presented, each with its own characteristic properties. When the four methods agree with one another they can be applied to provide a birth rate in default of birth statistics, or to suggest a correction for birth statistics which are deficient. A table showing results on the four methods for 25 cases enables the reader to judge the practical usefulness of the system.

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1967.10500899

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1967

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

Application of human capital concepts to migration holds promise, not only for calculating “gains and losses,” but also for conceptualizing and analyzing empirically both individual and social investment choices regarding the locus, duration, and sequences of schooling and experiential learning.

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1967.10500900

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1967

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

A description is given of the system of replicated samples introduced into the Consumer Price Index as of December 1963. Essentially simple in concept, the main difficulties related to implementation of the design throughout the complex CPI structure. Estimates of sampling error in the CPI, the first such estimates for a major national price index, are given, and their adequacy and limitations evaluated. The results indicate that any change in the published CPI of .2 per cent (not index points) over a monthly, quarterly or longer period is significant at the 5 per cent level.

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1967.10500901

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1967

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

Formulae for the first two moments of the order statistics from a geometric distribution are presented in closed form. Brief illustrative tables of the first two moments of the order statistics from a geometric distribution are included and two related dice games are discussed. The distribution of the range of a set of independent observations from a geometric distribution is presented in closed form. A system of redundant components which performs a given task repetitively at discrete times and its statistical equivalent, an inverse sampling scheme, are studied. The distribution of the number of stages until the scheme terminates or the system fails is shown to be identical to the distribution of a specific order statistic from a geometric distribution. A Markov chain formulation is presented which facilitates certain system reliability and cost analyses.

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1967.10500902

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1967

数据来源: Taylor