摘要:

Economic statisticians do not enjoy an untarnished reputation for accurate forecasting. We have managed, over the years, to come up with some memorable failures. While we have also had our share of successes, they are not as well remembered nor as numerous as we should like. Recently, however, we have begun to pay more attention to the record, and a substantial body of evidence on forecasting performance has accumulated. In this paper I propose to review this record, try to arrive at a balanced appraisal, and offer some suggestions for improvement.

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1969.10500952

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1969

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

Bode's law has usually been evaluated subjectively by means of overall judgment and opinions differ regarding its significance. Here we analyze it in some detail, with use of the axioms of probability, but still subjectively. The subjective Bayes factor in favor of Bode's law's being not a mere accident is given as between about 300 and 700. More tentatively, the existence of Bode's law seems to provide a factor of about 20 in favor of a non-cataclysmic origin of the solar system and hence in favor of there being an extremely large number of planetary systems in the galaxy. These factors would I think be much increased by taking into account “Dabbler's Law,” which is concerned with the mean distances of the saturnine satellites. It is pointed out that Dabbler's law has had predictive value and can be used for a further prediction.

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1969.10500953

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1969

数据来源: Taylor

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1969.10500954

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1969

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

The paper is concerned with testing an application of a theory of investment behavior based on the neo-classical theory of optimal capital accumulation. The demand for capital is determined to maximize net worth under the neo-classical conditions of production. With the assumption of a lag in the completion of investment projects, gross investment is a distributed lag function of period-to-period changes in desired capital stock.

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1969.10500955

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1969

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

The purpose of the study is to throw some light on the saving behavior of urban Indian households. The nature of the effects on saving of income and net worth and their interactions are examined in detail for different socio-economic sub-groups. There is strong evidence that income and net worth significantly influence the level of saving. Contrary to the studies in advanced countries, home-owners had a much lower saving-income ratio than renters although the former had a slightly higher average income. A major reason for this may be the uncommon-ness of amortized mortgages in India, with no contractual commitment to save. Except for age 65 or over, mean income, saving and the saving-income ratio increased with age up to 45 years and thereafter declined. The age group 65 or over had a higher average income and saved the highest proportion of income. This is perhaps due to the prevalence of joint families in India.

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1969.10500956

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1969

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

This paper presents the results on the construction of a Working Life Table for males in Ghana, 1960. Comparisons of working life tables for Ghana and other industrialized countries such as the United States, England and Wales are made. In addition, some aspects of the uses of working life tables are considered, particularly the examination of annual losses from the actual working population and the factors determining the pattern of losses. It was estimated that out of the total number who left the working population of Ghana in 1960, 89.9% left on account of death and only 10.1% left on account of causes other than death. The total loss rate for Ghana in 1960 amounted to 23.3 per 1000 male working population; made up of rates 20.9 per 1000 for losses due to death and 2.4 per 1000 for losses due to retirement and other causes respectively.

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1969.10500957

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1969

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

In an effort to provide probabilistic measures of the accuracy of population projections, stochastic models for population growth are defined from the classical discrete deterministic model by assuming respectively that (1) the deterministic model is subject to additive random errors; (2) the elements of the transition matrix represent probabilities, rather than rates; and (3) the transition matrices are random variables. The mean of each process is shown to reproduce the deterministic process, while the variance can be expressed as the weighted sum of one-step conditional variances. For the second model, these “innovation variances” will be small for large populations, while for the first and third models their size will depend on the observed variability of, respectively, prediction errors and vital rates. Since it is known empirically that both the latter are quite variable, these models could be expected to yield relatively high prediction variances, and this expectation is confirmed by a numerical example.

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1969.10500958

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1969

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

Consider a clinical trial to compare two treatments where response is dichotomous and patients enter the trial sequentially. This paper investigates the conduct of such a trial where the “Play the Winner Rule” (PWR) is used to assign patients to the different therapies. The implementation of the PWR in a clinical trial tends to place more patients on the better treatment. Both theoretical and numerical investigations show that over a wide range of situations this rule leads to near optimum results when used in a two-stage manner. Furthermore, these results are insensitive to optimum sample size requirements.

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1969.10500959

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1969

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

The up-and-down method in bioassay using multiple samples in each trial is investigated. The bias and precision of the estimators forED50applying the dose-averaging formula and probit analysis are computed and relatively efficient sampling schemes are discussed. The use of the method to estimate extreme percentage doses is developed. It is shown that the estimators from this method are generally more efficient than the non-sequential estimators and are as good as other comparable sequential estimators. Several numerical examples of the asymptotic distribution of the dose-levels from this sampling procedure are tabulated.

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1969.10500960

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1969

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

In many scientific investigations, it is desired to bring together, or link, two or more documents which represent the same individual, even though these documents do not contain a unique identifier and were derived from different sources. In medical and public health research and elsewhere, this problem is known as the document linkage problem. This paper considers some aspects of classifying pairs of documents into one of two populations when their items are identifying information, where each item of information can take on three distinct values correct, incorrect or missing.

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1969.10500961

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1969

数据来源: Taylor