摘要:

Three methods of cohort analysis are presented for a statistical model wherein the explanatory or exposure variables act multiplicatively on age × calendar year specific death rates. The first method, which assumes that the baseline rates are known from national vital statistics, is a multiple regression analysis of the standardized mortality ratio. The second method is a variant of Cox's proportional hazards analysis in which the baseline rates are treated as unknown nuisance parameters. The third method consists of case-control sampling from the risk sets formed in the course of applying Cox's model. It requires substantially less computation than do the other two. In illustrative analysis of respiratory cancer deaths among a cohort of smelter workers, all three approaches yield roughly equivalent estimates of the relative risk associated with arsenic exposure. The discussion centers on the tradeoff between efficiency and bias in the selection of a particular method of analysis, and on practical issues that arise in applications.

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1983.10477915

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1983

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

Population projections are key elements of many planning and policy studies but are inherently inaccurate. This study of past population projection errors provides a means for constructing confidence intervals for future projections. We first define a statistic to measure projection errors independently of the size of the population and the length of the projection period. A sample of U.S. Census Bureau and United Nations projections indicates that the distributions of components of the error statistic are relatively stable. We then use this information to construct confidence intervals for the total population of the United States through the year 2000. We find that for projections of total population size, simple projection techniques are more accurate than more complex techniques.

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1983.10477916

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1983

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

Despite the enormous potential of regression-discontinuity, quasi-experimental procedures, they have to date rarely been used in the evaluation of large-scale social programs. In this article, we report an evaluation of such a program in which a regression-discontinuity analysis is employed. Through a change in legislation, the program in question extended eligibility for unemployment benefits to prisoners after their release from prison. The regression-discontinuity approach proved practical and effective; it revealed that the program cut recidivism rates by 13 percent.

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1983.10477917

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1983

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

The form of the distribution underlying common stock returns has many implications for financial modeling. Among the frequently proposed models for stock return distributions is the family of stable distributions. Numerous studies of stock return distributions have also proposed various types of mixtures of normal distributions. This article examines the characteristics of several different combinations of mixtures of normal and stable distributions, and compares them with actual stock price distributions. The principal tests applied are based on the stability-under-addition property of stable distributions.

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1983.10477918

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1983

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

A problem that economic statisticians frequently face is to estimate the true movement in a time series on the basis of two or more imperfect indicators. A well-known example is nonagricultural employment as indicated (a) by a monthly survey of households and (b) by a monthly survey of employers. This article describes a procedure for estimating true changes in a time series as a linear combination of two indicators, with weights for indicators chosen so as to minimize errors. It applies the procedure to two examples, nonagricultural employment and capital goods prices.

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1983.10477919

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1983

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

This article reviews the state of multiparameter shrinkage estimators with emphasis on the empirical Bayes viewpoint, particularly in the case of parametric prior distributions. Some successful applications of major importance are considered. Recent results concerning estimates of error and confidence intervals are described and illustrated with data.

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1983.10477920

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1983

数据来源: Taylor

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1983.10477921

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1983

数据来源: Taylor

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1983.10477922

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1983

数据来源: Taylor

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1983.10477923

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1983

数据来源: Taylor

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1983.10477924

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1983

数据来源: Taylor