ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1966.10502006

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1966

数据来源: Taylor

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1966.10502007

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1966

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

The classical dowry, secretary, or beauty contest problem is extended in several directions. In trying to find sequentially the maximum of a random sequence of fixed length, the chooser can have one or several choices (section 2), no information about the distribution of the values (section 2), or at the other extreme, full information about the distribution and the value of the observation itself (section 3). He can have an opponent who alters the properties of the sequence (section 4). The payoff function may be 0 or 1 (sections 2–4), or it may be the value of the observation itself as in certain investment problems (section 5). Both theoretical and numerical results are given for optimum and near optimum play.

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1966.10502008

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1966

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

An investigation of stratification is reported for a universe with strong positive skewness. The choice of stratification variable, the method of constructing strata, the sample allocation, and the number of strata are considered. Comparisons are made among four types of allocation in combination with the corresponding optimum stratifications. For four simpler methods of stratification, equal allocation and allocation proportional to stratum aggregates are contrasted. Gains from stratification are examined for several estimation variables. Illustrations utilize data for the 1961 universe of United States nonfederal, general medical hospitals for short-term care. However, the findings apply to the stratification of other populations having similar distribution functions.

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1966.10502009

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1966

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

This paper presents the results of two studies investigating the prevalence of response and non-response errors in consumer reports of demand deposits. The source of the data is two consumer panels in which sample members were selected from the files of cooperating financial institutions and continuous checks could be made, unknown to the respondents, of the reported balance of certain financial holdings. Only one of these studies was designed specifically to validate demand deposits, and this only for part of the sample, with the sample size being reduced further because of administrative difficulties. Nevertheless, the findings would seem to be of considerable interest, particularly because this appears to have been the first time that an attempt was made to measure nonsampling errors in individual consumer reports of this asset; the few previous comparisons have been in terms of aggregates.

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1966.10502010

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1966

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

It is claimed that investment anticipations are very useful in short-term forecasting for predicting actual investment expenditures. This hypothesis is examined and the predictive record of the anticipations for the period 1952 to 1962 is compared to several naive models, a function of endogenous variables only, and a combination of endogenous and anticipatory variables. The authors find that anticipations predict better than naive models in general, but not at turning points. In the manufacturing sector the inclusion of anticipatory variables improves predictions made with a function composed only of endogenous variables, but the inclusion of anticipations does not improve similar predictions in the non-manufacturing sector.

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1966.10502011

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1966

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

The one-in-a-thousand sample from the 1960 Census of Population and Housing was used to investigate the determinants of the movement of youth into and out of the labor force. Individuals in the sample between the ages of 14 and 24 were stratified on the basis of whether they worked in the preceding year, sex, age, and whether living at home. Separate regressions were run on each stratum. The dependent variable was the labor force status of the individual at the time of the enumeration. The independent variables included educational enrollment and attainment, family income, non-earned income of the youth, geographical region, and degree of urbanization. It was found that the first of these variables was the most influential in effecting the probabilities that a youth would enter and leave the labor force. In general, the results were consistent with the earlier findings of Eleanor H. Bernert which were based on the 1950 Census of Population.

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1966.10502012

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1966

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

We consider an errors in variables model in which the ‘true’ part of the determining variable is generated by a simple forecasting mechanism. It is shown that the Least Squares errors in variables bias can be interpreted in terms of the parameters of the forecasting mechanism; and that the ‘standard’ result for this bias may no longer hold in this situation. An empirical illustration of the results is given.

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1966.10502013

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1966

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

The paper reports the results of several sampling experiments investigating the sensitivity of various simultaneous-equations estimators to errors in the exogenous variables, stochastic coefficients, heteroskedastic disturbances and auto correlated disturbances. The estimates studied are direct least squares, two-stage least squares, Nagar's unbiasedk-class estimator, limited-information maximum likelihood, three-stage least squares, and full-information maximum likelihood. Stochastic coefficients altered the ranking of the estimators and increased their dispersions greatly. The other conditions did not produce great changes in the rankings of the estimators, the central tendencies of their distributions or the usefulness of their standard errors.

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1966.10502014

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1966

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

This paper presents a procedure for estimating the components in an economic time series assuming a constant seasonal component and a trend which may be estimated locally by a polynomial. The procedure is to estimate the trend and seasonal components for each consecutive two-year time span of quarterly data using conventional least-square techniques. Thus, for each quarter in the series, except the first seven and last seven, there are eight estimates for each of these components. A weighted average of these estimates is obtained using weights such that the variance of the average is a minimum. This procedure is used to adjust male unemployment in the United States for seasonal variation, and the results compare favorably with the official adjustment of the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

ISSN:0162-1459    

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1966.10502015

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1966

数据来源: Taylor