ISSN:0277-6715    

DOI:10.1002/sim.4780121502

出版商:Wiley Subscription Services, Inc., A Wiley Company    

年代:1993

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0277-6715    

DOI:10.1002/sim.4780121503

出版商:Wiley Subscription Services, Inc., A Wiley Company    

年代:1993

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractThis paper describes a Bayesian approach to the design and analysis of clinical trials, and compares it with the frequentist approach. Both approaches address learning under uncertainty. But they are different in a variety of ways. The Bayesian approach is more flexible. For example, accumulating data from a clinical trial can be used to update Bayesian measures, independent of the design of the trial. Frequentist measures are tied to the design, and interim analyses must be planned for frequentist measures to have meaning. Its flexibility makes the Bayesian approach ideal for analysing data from clinical trials. In carrying out a Bayesian analysis for inferring treatment effect, information from the clinical trial and other sources can be combined and used explicitly in drawing conclusions. Bayesians and frequentists address making decisions very differently. For example, when choosing or modifying the design of a clinical trial, Bayesians use all available information, including that which comes from the trial itself. The ability to calculate predictive probabilities for future observations is a distinct advantage of the Bayesian approach to designing clinical trials and other decisions. An important difference between Bayesian and frequentist thinking is the role of randomization.

ISSN:0277-6715    

DOI:10.1002/sim.4780121504

出版商:Wiley Subscription Services, Inc., A Wiley Company    

年代:1993

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0277-6715    

DOI:10.1002/sim.4780121505

出版商:Wiley Subscription Services, Inc., A Wiley Company    

年代:1993

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0277-6715    

DOI:10.1002/sim.4780121506

出版商:Wiley Subscription Services, Inc., A Wiley Company    

年代:1993

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0277-6715    

DOI:10.1002/sim.4780121507

出版商:Wiley Subscription Services, Inc., A Wiley Company    

年代:1993

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractThis paper examines the two principal justifications that have been offered for the standard conditions that clinical trials be randomized and controlled, with the conclusion that, strictly speaking, neither justification is valid. It is argued, on the other hand, that a Bayesian analysis of clinical trials affords a valid, intuitively plausible rationale for selective controls, and marks out a more limited role for randomization than it is generally accorded. The feasibility of retrospective trials is then considered in the light of these conclusions.

ISSN:0277-6715    

DOI:10.1002/sim.4780121508

出版商:Wiley Subscription Services, Inc., A Wiley Company    

年代:1993

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0277-6715    

DOI:10.1002/sim.4780121509

出版商:Wiley Subscription Services, Inc., A Wiley Company    

年代:1993

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractThe current widespread practice of usingp‐values as the main means of assessing and reporting the results of clinical trials cannot be defended. Reasons for grave concern over the present situation range from the unsatisfactory nature ofp‐values themselves, their very common misunderstanding by statisticians as well as by clinicians and their serious distorting influence on our perception of the very nature of clinical trials. It is argued, however, that only by fully understanding the reasons why they have become so universally popular can we hope to change opinion and introduce more sensible ways of summarizing and reporting results. Some of the ways in which this might happen are discus

ISSN:0277-6715    

DOI:10.1002/sim.4780121510

出版商:Wiley Subscription Services, Inc., A Wiley Company    

年代:1993

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0277-6715    

DOI:10.1002/sim.4780121511

出版商:Wiley Subscription Services, Inc., A Wiley Company    

年代:1993

数据来源: WILEY