摘要:

State‐sponsored lotto games, because they are pari‐mutuel and because jackpots with no winner are rolled over into the next drawing, present an excellent opportunity to test for market efficiency. Using data from Massachusetts, Kentucky, and Ohio, we investigate bettors' responses and test for weak‐form efficiency. Lotto bets do not have positive net expected returns, thus weak‐form efficiency exists. To evaluate strong‐form efficiency we utilize the concept of a rational expectations equilibrium. We find that in general lotto bettors' decisions to play generate a level of sales that conform to their original forecasts of expec

ISSN:0095-2583    

DOI:10.1111/j.1465-7295.1995.tb01855.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1995

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

When taxes raise the full price of a good above that in nearby jurisdictions consumers have an incentive to cross into the lower‐price jurisdiction to make purchases. Using a simple microeconomic model of the consumer's border‐crossing decision, we derive an econometric model to test the significance of border crossing and estimate the magnitude of the resulting sales. Examining cigarette sales in the continental U.S. over the period 1960 to 1986, we find strong evidence that border crossing is a significant factor in explaining sales differentials between states. Implications for demand estimation and excise tax policy are discus

ISSN:0095-2583    

DOI:10.1111/j.1465-7295.1995.tb01856.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1995

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

This paper focuses on an old issue—the linkage between money announcements and the exchange rate. It shows that the magnitude of the time‐varying response of the spot exchange rate to an unanticipated money announcement is mainly driven by agents' expectations of the Federal Reserve's time‐varying response to the deviation of the actual money supply from a prespecified target. The inference is, the magnitude of the exchange rate's response to economic announcements depends on market participants' expectations about the announcements and the Fed's probable monetary policy res

ISSN:0095-2583    

DOI:10.1111/j.1465-7295.1995.tb01857.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1995

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

This paper examines the effect of Catholic schooling on high‐school dropout rates and educational attainment. Particular attention is given to the effect of selection into the Catholic school sector. After adjusting for self‐selection, we find that sophomores in the Catholic schools are still substantially more likely to graduate with their class. It is also shown that seniors in the Catholic schools are not more likely to acquire more schooling than other seniors if selection is taken into acco

ISSN:0095-2583    

DOI:10.1111/j.1465-7295.1995.tb01858.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1995

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

We analyze employee‐based discrimination using historical data on workers attributes from Michigan's furniture industry. The data provide compelling evidence of employee‐based discrimination in the form of a compensating wage differential. A one percentage point decrease in the share of the work force from the worker's own ethnic group increased the wage about 0.1 percent. This response was larger in small firms, in small towns, and among certain ethnic groups. Protestants were generally paid more to work with Catholics. The additional labor costs generated by employee‐based discrimination were probably offset by several benefits which rendered complete segregation unnece

ISSN:0095-2583    

DOI:10.1111/j.1465-7295.1995.tb01859.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1995

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

We consider the well‐known theorem of Alchian and Allen that adding a per unit charge to the price of two substitute goods increases the relative consumption of the higher price good. The current literature misspecifies the conditions under which the theorem holds. When applying the theorem the fixed cost should be applied on a per unit basis, rather than in terms of an entry fee for consumption. We state the necessary conditions for the theorem to hold when the consumers are shipped to the good

ISSN:0095-2583    

DOI:10.1111/j.1465-7295.1995.tb01860.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1995

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

This paper examines the role that work incentives play in the determination of work hours. We use a conventional efficiency wage model to analyze how firms respond to worker preferences regarding wage‐hours packages. In contrast to previous work, we study markets in which workers have heterogeneous preferences. In this context we demonstrate that job offers will specify both wages and work hours and many individuals will not be able to work their preferred number of hours. We show that the labor market equilibrium may be characterized by a less than optimal number of short‐hour j

ISSN:0095-2583    

DOI:10.1111/j.1465-7295.1995.tb01861.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1995

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

This paper develops statistical tests which show that in Federal Open Market Committee voting, Federal Reserve bank presidents, as a group, prefer less expansionary monetary policy than Federal Reserve board members. Further tests show that a subset of Federal Reserve bank presidents vote in a manner which is consistent with the partisanship of the U.S. president during whose term they were appointed. Membership in this subset is highly correlated with a career as an economist. These results have implications for reforms which would alter the voting power of bank presidents on the FOMC.

ISSN:0095-2583    

DOI:10.1111/j.1465-7295.1995.tb01862.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1995

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

This paper derives a theory of religious behavior and organization from the assumption that people seek to limit the risk associated with their religious activities. Alternative risk reduction strategies lead to different styles of religion: one centering on collective production, exclusivity, and high levels of commitment; another centering on private production, diversified consumption, and fee‐for‐service transactions. Western religions, particularly their more sectarian forms, exemplify the collective style, whereas Asian and New Age religions approximate the priv

ISSN:0095-2583    

DOI:10.1111/j.1465-7295.1995.tb01863.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1995

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

If consumers become pessimistic about the state of the economy, can there be a slowdown in output, even if their pessimism is not based on economic fundamentals? Recent macroeconomic models show the answer is yes, if there are “strategic complementarities” and multiple equilibria. We investigate the link between consumer confidence and economic fluctuations using vector autoregressions. In all models, after controlling for economic fundamentals, the hypothesis that consumer sentiment does not cause GNP (in the Granger sense) can be rejected. Variance decompositions suggest that consumer sentiment accounts for between 13 and 26 percent of the innovation variance of

ISSN:0095-2583    

DOI:10.1111/j.1465-7295.1995.tb01864.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1995

数据来源: WILEY