摘要:

Prior findings that federal government budget deficits promptly lead to increases in the monetary base are unreliable. These findings are due largely to inadequate treatment of seasonality in post‐war quarterly data. Once seasonality is properly modeled, no further short‐run relation is apparent. Theory suggests that there may be a long‐run relation between deficits and money growth. If such a relation exists, the sample of postwar U.S. data is too small to identi

ISSN:0095-2583    

DOI:10.1111/j.1465-7295.1990.tb01232.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1990

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Political models of the business cycle have typically been ignored because they appear inconsistent with rational behavior and because empirical evidence is inconclusive. This paper addresses the second issue, demonstrating for U.S. real GNP, unemployment, and inflation that electoral cycles (persistent patterns across electoral terms) are significant, but apparently only for Republican incumbents, and that partisan cycles (persistent differences between parties) are also significant. These findings are consistent with the conjecture that a minority party is more constrained by electoral concerns, whereas a majority party is freer to pursue partisan objectives.

ISSN:0095-2583    

DOI:10.1111/j.1465-7295.1990.tb01233.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1990

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

In many empirical studies the short‐run demand for money includes a lagged dependent variable; this is usually attributed to some cost of adjusting money balances toward their desired level. This short‐run money‐demand equation is sometimes used as a structural equation in models in which market clearing is also assumed (in the sense that money supply equals short–run money demand). In this paper, a theoretical counterexample demonstrates that this use of a short‐run money demand equation is not generally valid. This finding challenges the usual interpretation of the lagged dependent

ISSN:0095-2583    

DOI:10.1111/j.1465-7295.1990.tb01234.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1990

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Using a new data set consisting of a matched sample of workers and firms, and including explicit measures of match quality, the authors estimate a structural model and find new evidence of a strong positive relation between wages and tenure. Inclusion of firm‐fixed effects does not significantly reduce the estimated returns to tenure. The results also shed light on the relative importance of human capital and job matching theorie

ISSN:0095-2583    

DOI:10.1111/j.1465-7295.1990.tb01235.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1990

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

This paper explains indirect lending as a strategy for reducing a bank's cost of screening borrowers. Commercial banks appear to “ration” credit by rejecting some direct loan applicants, although they accept higher‐risk borrowers who apply for loans indirectly through retailers. However, the more thorough credit check on direct loans causes applicants to sort themselves according to risk. Indirect applicants signal their higher risk through their choice of financing. Since banks gather more accurate information on direct applicants, the two types of contracts should differ in predictable ways. These implications are tested with Federal Reserve data on 5,000 automobile

ISSN:0095-2583    

DOI:10.1111/j.1465-7295.1990.tb01236.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1990

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Although numerous studies on the effects of vehicle safety regulation exist, few are devoted to consumer demands for vehicle safety. This study uses an extensive data set combining vehicle specific information with responses from a national household survey of new car buyers to estimate individual demand for safety. It finds, ceteris paribus, purchase probability rises with an increase in safety features. In particular, an index of vehicle crashworthiness is a strong determinant of purchase decisions. The results favor a policy of posting crash test results and suggest that passive restraint systems enhance the likelihood of purchasing a given model.

ISSN:0095-2583    

DOI:10.1111/j.1465-7295.1990.tb01237.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1990

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Labor economists now believe that wages and hours are jointly determined, creating a premium in the hourly pay of full‐time workers. The size and nature of this premium, however, varies considerably by race. It is shown here that full‐time work carries a far lower premium for black workers than for white workers and has very different implications for blacks' occupational sta

ISSN:0095-2583    

DOI:10.1111/j.1465-7295.1990.tb01238.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1990

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Mark‐up pricing policies result in a loss of profits compared to marginal pricing behavior. These losses, however, are often very small, even for large changes in the money supply. But by adopting a simple pricing rule the firm does not have to forecast the future, and avoids the informational and computational costs required to determine the profit maximizing price each period. Thus, even if these costs are small, mark‐up pricing policies may be optimal, or approximately so, at least for some firms. In a macro model this is likely to imply large monetary non‐neutral

ISSN:0095-2583    

DOI:10.1111/j.1465-7295.1990.tb01239.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1990

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

A theory of the politically optimal tax is developed where tax rates are endogenous and determined by forces in the political market. The theory is used to explain the levels of alcoholic beverage taxes between states in the United States. It is shown that these rates are influenced by the ownership structure existing in the liquor industry, the consumption externalities associated with drinking, the minimum drinking age laws, the earmarking of tax revenues, the enforcement of regulations and real income.

ISSN:0095-2583    

DOI:10.1111/j.1465-7295.1990.tb01240.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1990

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

For the past six years the State of Alaska has engaged in a unique program in which annual direct cash distributions have been made to the populace. These distributions represent in a sense dividend payments made to citizens on their individual shares of Alaska's mineral wealth. This paper provides a historic perspective of the Alaska dividend distribution program and examines actual distributions to determine whether they are consistent with utility maximization. We found that either a dramatic change in preferences took place over the past six years or that distributions were inconsistent with intertmporal utility maximization.

ISSN:0095-2583    

DOI:10.1111/j.1465-7295.1990.tb01241.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1990

数据来源: WILEY