摘要:

NBER business“cycle” reference dates and aggregate economic time series are examined for evidence of regular cyclic behavior. A simple contingency table test is used on the reference dates, and aggregate series are fit with a second‐order autoregression. The results are negative. Apparently the business “cycle” is an optical illusion or, as Irving Fisher called it, a “Monte Carlo cycle.” These are the cycles superstitious gamblers believe gove

ISSN:0095-2583    

DOI:10.1111/j.1465-7295.1975.tb00251.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1975

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

This paper examines the behavior of riot participants in the context of an expected utility maximization model. The basic hypothesis is that a riot presents the participants with a constantly changing set of opportunities, and that their behavior can only be understood in light of these changing returns and costs. The model is tested using data collected by the National Advisory Committee on Civil Disorders. The results are consistent with the hypothesis of maximizing behavior.

ISSN:0095-2583    

DOI:10.1111/j.1465-7295.1975.tb00252.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1975

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

The Cagan, Barro, and Allais analyses of hyperinflation have been shown to be questionable. Their impressive empirical results are a direct result of the method used to solve their models. Their solution does not depend on the input forcing function (the rate of change of the money stock) of their differential equation systems but expresses one dependent variable, real money balances, as a function of another dependent variable, the rate of change of prices. As a result, price changes which are unrelated to changes in the money stock acting through the dynamic structure of the model will incorrectly yield a good fit of the data.

ISSN:0095-2583    

DOI:10.1111/j.1465-7295.1975.tb00253.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1975

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

This paper applies the mean‐variance portfolio model to the analysis of one facet of the production decision confronting the oil exporting countries. Specifically we assume that the countries in question seek the optimal solution to the problem of diversifying their assets between oil reserves in the ground and other non‐petroleum investment alternatives. With respect to the group of countries which tend to accumulate money resources in excess of their domestic development needs (e. g., Saudi Arabia and Kuwait) the availability of an “inflation‐proof” investment outlet whose principal and interest are linked to a general index of the change in world prices is likely to enhance these countries' incentive to extract oil from the ground on portfolio considerati

ISSN:0095-2583    

DOI:10.1111/j.1465-7295.1975.tb00254.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1975

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

This paper develops a majority voting model to analyze the determination of taxes and transfers in a system of pay‐as‐yougo social insurance. The major implication is that the equilibrium size of the system is too large if votes are fully aware of the consequences of the policy. In addition, it seems likely that voters are rationally ignorant of a large portion of the cost of social insurance due to the hidden nature of the employer contribution and to the effect of the system on capital accumulatoin. This fiscal illusion works to exacerbate the overexpansion of the social insurance sys

ISSN:0095-2583    

DOI:10.1111/j.1465-7295.1975.tb00255.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1975

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

This paper provides empirical estimates of the effects of selected aspects of the unemployment insurance scheme on unemployment rates in the five economic regions of Canada. Separate five equation econometric models are estimated for each region, using annual time series data for the period 1953–1972. The results indicate that the unemployment insurance scheme had a substantial effect on unemployment rates, and that this effect varied considerably among region

ISSN:0095-2583    

DOI:10.1111/j.1465-7295.1975.tb00256.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1975

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

This paper uses disaggregated data taken from union collective bargaining agreements to test several hypotheses on the impact of labor market structure on the wage levels of union members in U. S. manufacturing. The structure of collective bargaining, specifically the bargaining unit, is shown to play an important role in the determination of wage levels although this role is in some cases different than has generally been believed.

ISSN:0095-2583    

DOI:10.1111/j.1465-7295.1975.tb00257.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1975

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

This paper determines the terms of trade between Yugoslavia and members of COMECON between 1966–1968 and Yugoslavia and the Soviet Union between 1957–1969. The results, based on prices prevailing in Yugoslavia's trade with Western Europe, show that Yugoslavia consistently paid lower prices and received higher prices in Bloc trade. The measured price deviations are then used to test two hypotheses, both related to the effect of dependence on measures of discrimination. The results indicated that as Yugoslavia became more integrated into Western markets (less dependent on COMECON trade), her discriminatory power increa

ISSN:0095-2583    

DOI:10.1111/j.1465-7295.1975.tb00258.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1975

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

This paper reviews the development of monetarist theory and the circumstances under which emphasis shifted to “fiscalism,” discusses Bent Hansen's view that the controversy is largely a sham dispute, and suggests two types of research needed to assess, historically and theoretically, the relative practical importance of the two approaches to reduction or elimination of economic instabil

ISSN:0095-2583    

DOI:10.1111/j.1465-7295.1975.tb00259.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1975

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0095-2583    

DOI:10.1111/j.1465-7295.1975.tb00260.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1975

数据来源: WILEY