摘要:

AbstractThis paper discusses the operations analysis in the underwater search for the remains of the submarineScorpionThe a priori target location probability distribution for the search was obtained by monte‐carlo procedures based upon nine different scenarios concerning theScorpionloss and associated credibility weights. These scenarios and weights were postulated by others.Scorpionwas found within 260 yards of the search grid cell having the largest a priori probabilityFrequent computations of local effectiveness probabilities (LEPs) were carried out on scene during the search and were used to determine an updated (a posteriori) target location distribution. This distribution formed the basis for recommendation of the current high probability areas for searchThe sum ofLEPs weighted by the a priori target location probabilities is called search effectiveness probability (SEP) and was used as the overall measure of effectiveness for the operation.SEPandLEPs were used previously in the Mediterranean H‐bomb searchOn‐scene and stateside operations analysis are discussed and the progress of the search is indicated by values ofSEPfor various periods during the oper

ISSN:0028-1441    

DOI:10.1002/nav.3800180202

出版商:Wiley Subscription Services, Inc., A Wiley Company    

年代:1971

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractMuch work has been done in search theory; however, very little effort has occurred where an object's presence at a location can be accepted when no object is present there. The case analyzed is of this type. The number of locations is finite, a single object is stationary at one location, and only one location is observed each step of the search. The object's location has a known prior probability distribution. Also known are the conditional probability of acceptance given the object's absence (small) and the conditional probability of rejection given the object's presence (not too large); these Probabilities remain fixed for all searching and locations. The class of sequential search policies which terminate the search at the first acceptance is assumed. A single two‐part optimization criterion is considered. The search sequence is found which (i) minimizes the probability of obtainingnrejections in the first n steps for all n, and (ii) maximizes the probability that the first acceptance occurs within the firstnsteps and occurs at the object's location for alln. The optimum sequential search policy specifies that the next location observed is one with the largest posterior probability of the object's presence (evaluated after each step from Bayes Rule) and that the object is at the first location where acceptance occurs. Placement at the first acceptance seems appropriate when the conditional probability of acceptance given the object's absence is sufficiently small. Search always terminates (with probability one). Optimum truncated sequential policies are also considered. Methods are given for evaluating some pertinent properties and for investigating the possibility that no object occurs at any locatio

ISSN:0028-1441    

DOI:10.1002/nav.3800180203

出版商:Wiley Subscription Services, Inc., A Wiley Company    

年代:1971

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractThe random variables in two‐stage programming under uncertainty are generally treated in a passive manner in that no information regarding the random variables or the process generating the random variables may be obtained. This paper develops the economics of information for the case in which the probability distributions are discrete. A multinomial process is assumed to generate the random variables, and the parameter vector of that process is assumed to be unknown. A Dirichlet prior distribution on the parameter vector is used, and the computation of the value of information thus involves a Dirichlet‐multinomial distribution on the random variables. An example involving producing to meet uncertain demands is presen

ISSN:0028-1441    

DOI:10.1002/nav.3800180204

出版商:Wiley Subscription Services, Inc., A Wiley Company    

年代:1971

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractD. P. Heyman, M. Sobel, and M. J. Magazine among others have shown existence of an optimal policy for control of single server queuing systems. For queues under periodic review existence of an analogous rule is established for multi‐server systems. Formulation as a dynamic programming problem is given and proofs for existence are presented for finite horizon, infinite horizon and average cost criteri

ISSN:0028-1441    

DOI:10.1002/nav.3800180205

出版商:Wiley Subscription Services, Inc., A Wiley Company    

年代:1971

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractA paradox arises when a transportation problem admits to a total cost solution which is lower than the optimum and is attainable by shipping larger quantities of goods over the same routes that were previously designated as optimal. That is, fallingtotalcosts are present in moving to the greater shipment quantities. Necessary conditions for this to occur are established and an algorithm for solving this expanded transportation problem is supplied.

ISSN:0028-1441    

DOI:10.1002/nav.3800180206

出版商:Wiley Subscription Services, Inc., A Wiley Company    

年代:1971

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractThis paper presents a procedure akin to dynamic programming for designing optimal acceptance sampling plans for item‐by‐item inspection. Using a Bayesian procedure, a prior distribution is specified, and a suitable cost model is employed depicting the cost of sampling, accepting or rejecting the lot. An algorithm is supplied which is digital computer orien

ISSN:0028-1441    

DOI:10.1002/nav.3800180207

出版商:Wiley Subscription Services, Inc., A Wiley Company    

年代:1971

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractCurrent scientific, technical, and management progress is characterized by the generation of a tremendous amount of data for analysis. This, in turn, poses a significant challenge: to effectively and efficiently extract meaningful information from the large volume of data. Two relatively young professions, computer science and statistics, are intimately linked in any response to the challenge. They have consequently become indispensable to scientific, technical, and management progress, occupying a position at its very heartComputer science and statistics have each been separately documented by many books as well as numerous papers. However, the interface of computer science and statistics, the area of their interaction, has been documented only in part. This paper begins characterization of the entire interface by providing a structure and an historical background for itA structure for the interface is introduced initially, followed by an historical background for the interface presented in two parts. First to be summarized is the evolution of the interface from an interweaving of the mechanical prerequisites to the computer and mathematical prerequisities to computer science and of the foundations for probability and statistics. Development of statistics prior to 1900 then is reviewed.

ISSN:0028-1441    

DOI:10.1002/nav.3800180208

出版商:Wiley Subscription Services, Inc., A Wiley Company    

年代:1971

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractFor a young science and even for most old ones, the intensity and variety of activities involved in computer science are unsurpassed. In an effort to provide the extremely varied training needed in the field, curriculum planners have tended to slight probability and statistics. Rarely has it been a requisite and only occasionally a desired electiveHowever, not only is an adequate foundation in probability and statistics necessary for such external computer applications as tracking and other data reduction, Monte Carlo techniques, gaming, operations research, traffic analyses, etc., but it also plays an important role in internal applications to computer science and technologyThis effort in Rand's continuing study of computational mathematics and its applications offers a number of examples in various areas of computational mathematics and computing machine arithmetic‐to say nothing of computer design, time sharing, and the like‐to support the thesis that probability and statistics should be a requisite, not simply an elective or, even worse, ignored, at any institution offering a program in computer science. Further more, a potentially profitable source of research problems can be found in the interface between probability and statistics and computer scie

ISSN:0028-1441    

DOI:10.1002/nav.3800180209

出版商:Wiley Subscription Services, Inc., A Wiley Company    

年代:1971

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractThis paper introduces an extended iterative weighted least squares procedure, denoted by EIWLS, for solution of a classical problem in analysis of scientific and technical information: estimation in the presence of complications, of the coefficients for linearly independent component signals in a linear model, from observations on the component signals and a composite signal containing the linear model plus noise which is nonstationary and/or correlated with unknown covariance matrix. An iterative weighted least squares procedure, denoted by IWLS, is developed for estimation in the absence of complications. Then IWLS is extended to perform the estimation subject to: (1) estimators being consistent with a priori information describing the random variation of coefficients over all possible states of nature (e. g., all systems of a specified type from a production process); (2) utilization of data from all pertinent channels in the estimation of coefficients which appear in the linear models for more than one data channel; and (3) replacment of the linear model by a new linear model containing only representative component signals which are highly‐descriptive, but not highly‐related, when there is a large number of component signals in the linear model and some of them are highly‐related. FORTRAN computer programs have been written to implement IWLS and EIWLS on the IBM 7094 for the case of nonstationary and uncorrelated

ISSN:0028-1441    

DOI:10.1002/nav.3800180210

出版商:Wiley Subscription Services, Inc., A Wiley Company    

年代:1971

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0028-1441    

DOI:10.1002/nav.3800180211

出版商:Wiley Subscription Services, Inc., A Wiley Company    

年代:1971

数据来源: WILEY