ISSN:0004-9018    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-8462.1992.tb00578.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1992

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

This quarterly two‐year forecast from the Access Economics Murphy (AEM) model updates that presented in the corresponding article in the 4th quarter 1991 issue of the Australian Economic Review.As predicted in the previous forecast, the economy entered a slow recovery in the December quarter of 1991. Steady growth averaging close to 1 per cent per quarter is likely during 1992–93 and 1993–94.Unemployment may peak at around 10 3/4 per cent in mid‐1992, before slowly falling to a year‐average level of around 9 per cent in 1993–94.Under the influence of the recent recession, CPI inflation is likely to be around 2 per cent per annum on a year‐on‐year basis for both 1991–92 and 1992–93. With economic recovery, it is forecast to rise to 4.5 per cent per annum in 1993–94.While the recession has helped bring the current account deficit down from near 6 per cent of GDP in 1989–90 to around 3 per cent for 1991–92, it will rise with economic recovery, and is forecast to exceed 5 per cent of GDP by 1993–94, compared with a sustainable level of 3 to 3 1/2 per cent.The economic recovery is not proving to be as strong as forecast in One Nation.However, there is a recovery clearly underway, and any further easing of monetary and fiscal policy risks prejudicing a substantial part of the recent impressive gains on inflation and creates a major medium‐ter

ISSN:0004-9018    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-8462.1992.tb00579.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1992

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

This article suggests that Australia could benefit from observing more closely Singapore's current development strategy. The production of labour intensive manufactures primarily by foreign firms and for export formed the core of Singapore's successful economic advance in the 1960s and 1970s. While a factor endowment strength—comparatively cheap labour—lay behind this achievement, the Singapore government actively supplemented this strength by creating a business environment highly favourable to the needs of foreign investors.With full employment and rising wage levels since then, Singapore lost its comparative advantage in the production of low wage manufactures to other East Asian countries. Recently, its development has been based more on created than inherited advantages. The Singapore government argues that the resources crucial to sustained per capita income advance in middle and higher income countries are not natural resources but rather information, technology, investible funds, research and development (R&D) spending and professional people. Singapore aims to develop its business environment to attract such resources to Singapore.The government's vision for Singapore is a nation where the share of professional and highly skilled manpower in the workforce rises over time. This employment goal informs the government's approach to all policy matters: infrastructure development, education, urban development, microeconomic reform, taxation, fiscal, monetary and exchange rate policy, support for manufacturing and service activities, and attitudes to foreign investors.By comparison with Australia, Singapore has a very level playing field. The government sees no conflict between intervening to attempt to create competitive advantage while vigorously pursuing microeconomic reforms to make the playing field in Singapore still more le

ISSN:0004-9018    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-8462.1992.tb00580.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1992

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

There has been much debate about the redistributive implications of a consumption tax and the treatment of low income households. This article presents a general model which allows for the interdependence between income and consumption taxes, while allowing for transfer payments to the low paid. The appropriate adjustment of transfer payments in response to a change in the tax mix, in order to maintain a fixed real value of transfers, is examined. The use of exemptions, of those goods for which the proportion of expenditure falls as total household expenditure rises, in order to increase the progressivity of consumption taxes is also considered. The model enables changes in the tax mix, which are both revenue and progressivity neutral, to be devised.

ISSN:0004-9018    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-8462.1992.tb00581.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1992

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Critics of immigration often argue that by providing a cheap alternative to training, immigration acts as a disincentive for employers to invest in training. Immigration, therefore, may be partly responsible for Australia's poor record in the area of industry training. This article evaluates this argument using data recently collected by the ABS.Probit models explaining the determinants of three types of training—in‐house, external and on‐the‐job—are estimated for the Australian‐born workforce. These models are then augmented with a variable representing the impact of skilled immigration. Initial estimates indicated that immigration was significantly and inversely associated with the probability of Australian‐born workers receiving in‐house training.This inverse association, however, may result not because employers hire skilled immigrants in preference to providing training, but because skilled immigrants are over‐represented in low training industries. A two‐step procedure, involving first identifying the size of industry fixed effects on training and then isolating the impact of immigration on these fixed effects, confirms that it is industry‐specific effects which are of most importance. It is concluded, therefore, that immigration is currently not displacing any training ac

ISSN:0004-9018    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-8462.1992.tb00582.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1992

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

This article provides new estimates of the size of the cash economy in Australia over the period from 1950–51 to 1989–90. This series is used to estimate income tax revenue losses for each year and to examine the factors which influence the incentive to evade income

ISSN:0004-9018    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-8462.1992.tb00583.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1992

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0004-9018    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-8462.1992.tb00584.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1992

数据来源: WILEY