摘要:

AbstractA slow recovery, commencing in the December quarter of 1997, is expected from the current recession. Overall, gross domestic product (GDP) may increase by 2.8 per cent in the year to the June quarter of 1992, and continue to increase at a similar rate thereafter.This subdued recovery is likely to see the unemployment rate at over 70 per cent to the end of 1992, before moving down slowly to around 8.5 per cent by the mid‐1990s.Consumer price index (CPI) inflation may fall sharply from a peak of 8.0 per cent in 1989‐90 to a trough of under 3 per cent in 1997‐92, due to the recession and movements in oil prices. With a slow recovery, inflation may then increase to 5 per cent per annum in the medium term.The current account deficit has fallen from 6.0 per cent of GDP in 1989‐90 to 4.7 per cent in 1990‐91, despite a fall in the terms of trade of 5 per cent. However, this has been due to the cyclical downturn. With a slow recovery in demand, and rising real labour costs hampering expansion in export and import‐competing industries, the current account deficit may once again reach 6 per cent of GDP by the mid‐1990s, implying steady increases in the foreign debt‐to‐GDP ratio.This forecast assumes monetary policy targets an inflation rate of 5 per cent per annum. Any further easings in monetary policy may undermine the credibility of the inflation objective with the result that the trade weighted index (TWI) exchange rate may dro

ISSN:0004-9018    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-8462.1991.tb00399.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1991

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0004-9018    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-8462.1991.tb00400.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1991

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractThe ORANI computable general equilibrium model of the Australian economy has traditionally been used to estimate the effects of changes in the economy on industries. In this article the ORANI model is extended to include corporations. Medium‐run forecasts of the Australian economy over the period 1988‐95 89 to 1994‐95 are used to estimate the effects on revenue and costs for selected corporations. These forecasts are generated by weighting the industry projections by the holdings of corporations across indus

ISSN:0004-9018    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-8462.1991.tb00401.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1991

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractThis article examines the linkages between long‐term unemployment and two important recent debates in Australia: first, whether unemployment exhibits hysteresis tendencies; second, the nature of the relationship between unemployment and real wages. Our findings favour the hysteresis account in that the evidence rejects an equilibrium relationship between long‐term and total unemployment. Also, the effect on real wages of an increase in the number of longterm unemployed is found to be both positive and signific

ISSN:0004-9018    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-8462.1991.tb00402.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1991

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractRecent reviews indicate that research on wealth in Australia has been limited by a lack of reliable data. The Economic Consequences of Marital Breakdown Survey containing data on the wealth of couples about to divorce, and items from the National Social Science Survey, provide new data for analysis. Shares of net wealth of housing (55 per cent) and superannuation (1 4 per cent) are comparable to those in previous studies. A ‘wealth function’ was developed taking account of age, gender, years of schooling and further education. There was a 2.6 per cent gain for each year of age and a decumulation of assets after age 58 years. Each year of schooling adds another 10 per cent to net wealth. There is a 16 per cent gain for those who have undertaken some further education after completing school. Some 22 per cent of adult Australians report ever receiving an inheritance. This new information begins to provide some of the answers on ‘how’ and, by inference, ‘why’ Australian hous

ISSN:0004-9018    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-8462.1991.tb00403.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1991

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0004-9018    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-8462.1991.tb00404.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1991

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0004-9018    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-8462.1991.tb00405.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1991

数据来源: WILEY