ISSN:0004-9018    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-8462.1989.tb00318.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1989

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractThis article puts forward the view that there are considerable benefits to be gained from foreign borrowing and that policy actions of a macro nature should be diverted towards internal balance.In Section 2 a brief history of the evolution of approaches to the current account is set out. Recent theories imply that the current account indicates the optimal amount of foreign borrowing both by firms and households, at least with zero fiscal deficits. The present conventional Australian approach to current account issues (Section 3) would seem to be based on theories which were relevant in an era of pegged exchange rates.In Section 4 it is suggested not only that the current account should not be a target of macroeconomic policy, but that any microeconomic policy directed at reducing it should be justified by the existence of externalities in the borrowing/debt process.

ISSN:0004-9018    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-8462.1989.tb00319.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1989

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractMonetary policy has steadily become tighter over the past twelve months. In various statements, the Government has indicated its view that monetary policy needs to be tight in order to subdue an ‘excessively high’ rate of growth of domestic demand. This article asks whether the current stance of monetary policy is now too restrictive and, if so, what the consequences might be for the pattern and growth of economic activity during 1989‐90. A number of scenarios based on alternative settings of monetary policy in 1989‐90 are derived from a short‐term simulation model of the Australian economy. The scenarios suggest that, if monetary policy remains at the current degree of tightness, the Australian economy may well experience a recession in 1989‐90. Some easing of monetary conditions is mandatory if a sharp and unnecessary slowdown of economic activity is to be avoided. Exactly how far monetary policy should be eased depends crucially on the rate of growth of autonomous

ISSN:0004-9018    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-8462.1989.tb00320.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1989

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractAustralia's current account deficit is large by historical standards and so is the boom in private investment spending. The net effect is a level of thrift that is not unusually low. A major uncertainty facing policymakers is how far unemployment can be reduced without causing an inflationary spiral. If unemployment can be reduced without igniting inflation, then there is a case for loosening monetary policy.

ISSN:0004-9018    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-8462.1989.tb00321.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1989

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractThis article argues that Australia's savings behaviour relative to its investment opportunities ensures a structural current account deficit which is fundamentally sustainable. In fact considerable scope seems to exist for it to widen further, irrespective of fiscal tightening that has occurred during the last few years, without alarming macroeconomic consequences.

ISSN:0004-9018    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-8462.1989.tb00322.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1989

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractIn this article indices of exchange rate uncertainty are measured from the perspective of potential impacts on trade flows. Empirical evidence based on movements in the Australian dollar spot rates and forward rates indicates that there has been an increase in currency risk between 1969 and 1987, which is not surprising given the progressive relaxation of the exchange rate regime during this period. More surprising is the finding that exchange rate uncertainty indices have risen relative to domestic financial price uncertainty indices. This would not have been expected to occur if increased currency risk had been solely due to growing instability of the underlying economic environment. However, since there is evidence that currency risk has been offset by domestic risk, the risk burden of diversified international traders may not have been adversely affected.

ISSN:0004-9018    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-8462.1989.tb00323.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1989

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0004-9018    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-8462.1989.tb00324.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1989

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0004-9018    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-8462.1989.tb00325.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1989

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0004-9018    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-8462.1989.tb00326.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1989

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0004-9018    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-8462.1989.tb00327.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1989

数据来源: WILEY