摘要:

AbstractA slow recovery is expected from the current recession. Since reaching a trough in the September quarter of 1990, real gross domestic product (GDP) has followed a flat path which is likely to continue through to the September quarter of 1991. A slow recovery may then commence in the December quarter of 1991. This is consistent with real GDP growth of ‐0.9 per cent in 1990‐91 followed by 2.4 per cent in 1991‐92 and around 3 per cent per annum to the mid‐ 1990s compared with ‘normal’ growth of 2.5 per cent per annum.This recovery is likely to see the unemployment rate at over 10 per cent for most of 1991‐92, before moving to around 8 per cent by the mid‐1990s.Inflation may fall sharply from a peak of 8.0 per cent in 1989‐90 to a trough of 3 to 4 per cent in 199 1–92, due to the recession and movements in oil prices. With a slow recovery, inflation may increase to 4 to 5 per cent per annum in the medium term.The current account deficit has fallen from 5.9 per cent of GDP in 1989‐90 to a likely level of 4.1 per cent in 1990‐91, but part of this gain is cyclical rather than structural. Thus the deficit is expected to increase to around 5 per cent during recovery and remain flat to the mid‐ 1990s, implying steady increases in the ratio of foreign debt to GDP.Looser monetary policy would erode part of the forecast sustained reduction in inflation. Looser fiscal policy would lead to a highe

ISSN:0004-9018    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-8462.1991.tb00384.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1991

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractA more competitive and export‐oriented manufacturing sector is an important objective of the Australian Labor Government's economic strategy. In furthering this objective levels of tariff protection have been lowered and foreign exchange markets deregulated. The strategy has been boosted by the competitive gain afforded by depreciation of the Australian dollar in 1985 and 1986. This article offers estimates of the size of Australian manufacturing investment in export‐creating capacity over the period 1980‐81 to 1987‐88. A breakdown of these estimates by individual industries is also provided.Our estimates indicate an improving trend since depreciation of the Australian dollar. However, this improvement has been from a low base. Moreover, the levels of investment in export‐creating capacity have yet to attain the levels prevailing in the early 1980s, and there are worrying signs that the improving trend stalled toward the end of the period. However, the breakdown of our estimates by industry groupings shows positive changes in the pattern of investment in export‐creating capacity. There has been a movement away from resource‐based manufactures and a larger share for elaborately transformed manufactures. This is a favourable shift in emphasis since such technologically sophisticated manufactures have been amongst the fastest growing

ISSN:0004-9018    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-8462.1991.tb00385.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1991

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractThis article argues that the recent implementation of monetary policy in Australia has been dominated by the response to a large range of unanticipated shocks. In the process of trying to minimise the adverse effects of such shocks, considerable uncertainty has been created about likely outcomes in the medium term. This makes medium‐term objectives harder to achieve. Taking the reduction of inflation as an example of an appropriate medium‐term objective, simulations are presented using the Murphy model of the Australian economy. The simulations demonstrate that a tightening of monetary policy will reduce inflation more slowly if private agents believe that the tightening is unlikely to be sustained for long. Under uncertainty, monetary policy will have to be tighter and real GDP significantly lower to achieve a given reduction in inflation. A confingency rule of medium complexity is suggested as one way in which appropriate medium‐term objectives might be achieved while allowing some flexibility to react to unexpected outcomes in the shor

ISSN:0004-9018    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-8462.1991.tb00386.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1991

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractThe argument against competition based on natural monopoly is questioned. A true natural monopolist needs no protection. Rapid product innovation and technical advance render the telecommunications industry not a natural monopolist.Telephones may involve two sources of external benefits: benefits to callers and benefits to receivers. Neither source justifies treating country areas more favourably since the access externality also applies, probably with larger magnitudes, to metropolitan areas.The Cellular Mobile Telephone Service (CMTS) involves the use of parts of the radio frequency spectrum. The spectrum should be treated as a scarce resource. Competitive bidding is probably the most efficient method of allocation if the whole spectrum is to be reallocated. However, with only a small band allocated to CMTS, auctioning need not be the most efficient outcome though it is better than maintaining its monopolised usage.Even if competition results in a higher cost initially, the gain in dynamic efficiency can offset this initial loss. A minimum estimate of the benefits to the public of introducing competition in CMTS gives a present value of $2.4 billion.

ISSN:0004-9018    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-8462.1991.tb00387.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1991

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0004-9018    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-8462.1991.tb00388.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1991

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0004-9018    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-8462.1991.tb00389.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1991

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0004-9018    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-8462.1991.tb00390.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1991

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0004-9018    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-8462.1991.tb00391.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1991

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0004-9018    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-8462.1991.tb00392.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1991

数据来源: WILEY