摘要:

This two‐year quarterly forecast from the Access Economics Murphy (AEM) model updates that presented in the 2nd quarter 1992 issue of the Australian Economic Review.The economic recovery is patchy, with only public final demand and housing investment moving forward decisively, but could broaden in 1993, if private business fixed investment begins increasing. It has fallen by a recession‐inducing one‐third since the middle of 1989.GDP growth could rise from a mediocre 2.4 per cent in 1992–93 to a strong 4.3 per cent in 1993–94.Unemployment may remain around 11 per cent for the remainder of 1992–93, before falling to a year‐average level of about 10 per cent in 1993–94.CPI inflation under 2 per cent per annum on a year‐on‐year basis is likely in 1992–93 but, with economic recovery and the flow‐through effects of the depreciation, it is forecast to rise to 4 per cent per annum in 1993–94. The current account deficit is rising with economic recovery, and by 1993‐94 could be 5 per cent of GDP, compared with a sustainable level of 3 to 3.5 per cent.An assessment of the accuracy of the AEM model and government official economic growth forecasts in the recession years of 1990–91 to 1992–93 was conducted, using the forecasts from the Business Review Weekly's panel as a reference point. The high accuracy ranking of the AEM forecasts is consistent with international evidence that the most accurate forecasts are model‐based with judgmental adjustments. The official forecasts met international standards of accuracy from 1978–79 to 1989–90, and the recent

ISSN:0004-9018    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-8462.1992.tb00594.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1992

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

In this article we present the results of a recent survey of economics professors in Australia. We found that there is a comfortable measure of consensus in many areas of economic science, including several contentious issues which currently worry policymakers and the general public alike. We show that there is good evidence to suggest that Australian academic economists share a world economic culture with their western European and (to an even greater extent) their American colleagues.We also asked the professors to share their thoughts on university economics education. There was good consensus that the professors wanted a rigorous classical economics education for their students, but they were not willing to sacrifice breadth: the ideal student, it appears, is one technically competent in economics with a head for the social and political dimensions of the profession. Overwhelmingly, the professors voted the economics department of the Australian National University as the best place for such an education, with those of Melbourne, the University of New South Wales, and Monash, close behind.Finally, the professors gave their opinions on the understanding of economics by government agencies, business and community groups.

ISSN:0004-9018    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-8462.1992.tb00595.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1992

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

The major macroeconomic challenge facing the Government is to reduce the unemployment rate without increasing inflation and the current account deficit. The Budget for 1992–93 gave the Government an opportunity to set out its policy for meeting this challenge.In this article we assess the Budget from a macro‐economic point of view. We ask whether the Government could have done more to address the problem of unemployment.Our analysis is in two parts. In the first, we answer the question: has the Government made believable forecasts for 1992–93, given its assumptions and the set of Budget policies. In the second part we consider whether, given the Budget assumptions, the chosen policy is the best one.To answer the first question, we used the COPS short‐run forecasting model (see the Appendix to the article) to obtain projections for 1992–93 under Budget policies and assumptions. These projections are almost identical to those of the Government, prompting a ‘yes’ to the first question. To answer the second question, we used our model to set out the effects of a more stimulatory budget strategy under five different sets of assumptions. These differ with respect to the exchange rate, private investment and wage rates. We find that a more stimulatory policy might help in increasing GDP and employment growth. However, nervousness in the foreign exchange market concerning the PSBR, resistance in the labour market to real wage reductions and sensitivity of private investors to increases in interest rates all combine to make the more stimulatory polic

ISSN:0004-9018    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-8462.1992.tb00596.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1992

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Long‐term visions serve to focus on essentials for sustained economic and social welfare. We now have to face up to the challenge of globalisation (growing international capital mobility), at a time when we are undoing our historic, self‐imposed protectionism. This also creates new opportunities, in particular in the dynamic Asia‐Pacific economies.There still is a ‘window of opportunity’ before an aging population will become a dominant problem. In the next 25 years, business will have to cope with high real interest rates and major uncertainties that now surround environmental policies.If we are to take on these challenges in constructive and beneficial ways, we have to develop an institutional order that enables the utilisation of knowledge by enterprising people. This requires a simple, transparent and reliable legal and regulatory framework, which supports competitive market processes, and the defence of openness to international trade and capital flows against particular interest groups.It seems plausible that the Downunder economy can grow over the next 25 years at about 3.5 per cent per capita if the right institutional conditions are created. If we fail to do so, a growing share of the capital, the skills and the enterprise made Down‐under will move to offshore locations which encourage a better use of knowledge and capital by enterprising people. This would deprive many of economic opportunity. The central challenge therefore is to develop a system of government and labour relations which makes the Downunder economy internationally

ISSN:0004-9018    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-8462.1992.tb00597.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1992

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

While it is widely acknowledged that labour market reform is a necessary ingredient of the strategy to make the Australian economy world‐competitive, there are divergent views on what the nature of the reform process should be. The changes being currently implemented and mooted may not provide the basis for strong productivity growth; holistic enterprise bargaining and voluntarist labour market arrangements are require

ISSN:0004-9018    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-8462.1992.tb00598.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1992

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0004-9018    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-8462.1992.tb00599.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1992

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0004-9018    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-8462.1992.tb00600.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1992

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0004-9018    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-8462.1992.tb00601.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1992

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

I received with interest the papers from the tertiary entrance year from a number of states. There is a similarity of content but a wide difference in the presentation of the papers—one of eight pages; one of forty pages (this one is the full paper—spots for answers provided); and one state with Papers J and 2. I selected the type of problem that seemed to be generally set in most sta

ISSN:0004-9018    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-8462.1992.tb00602.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1992

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0004-9018    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-8462.1992.tb00603.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1992

数据来源: WILEY