摘要:

TheChallengerdisaster evoked a national resolve to reduce the risk of future space flight tragedies. A part of that resolve was to estimate the present risks as accurately as possible. This article illustrates and compares several such ways of incorporating past experience into the process of estimating such risks. Failure data from five military solid rocket programs, as well as pre- and post-Challengerspace shuttle data, are used in selected Bayes, empirical Bayes, and Bayes empirical Bayes methods. The derived posterior distributions are used to estimate the required probability of catastrophic failure of the solid rocket boosters on the space shuttle for theGalileomission, which occurred in October 1989. The point estimates are in fairly close agreement, while the credibility intervals differ substantially. We estimate the probability of catastrophic failure to be 1/60 with 90% credibility interval of 1/578 to 1/21.

ISSN:0003-1305    

DOI:10.1080/00031305.1992.10475846

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1992

数据来源: Taylor

ISSN:0003-1305    

DOI:10.1080/00031305.1992.10475847

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1992

数据来源: Taylor

ISSN:0003-1305    

DOI:10.1080/00031305.1992.10475848

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1992

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

A proposal is made to take advantage of (a) exact relations between the tails of discrete distributions and those of continuous distributions, and (b) the computing environment today that easily enables the computation of the tail probabilities associated with common, continuous distributions. The proposal will enable one to compute probabilities for the Binomial distribution (and those of other common discrete distributions) without the use of tables or inadequate approximation methods.

ISSN:0003-1305    

DOI:10.1080/00031305.1992.10475850

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1992

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

Expert testimony, based on statistical data and inference, has become a routine part of legal proceedings. This article describes the role of statistics as evidence in a variety of cases and how the relevance of statistical exhibits relates to legal standards and burdens of proof.

ISSN:0003-1305    

DOI:10.1080/00031305.1992.10475851

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1992

数据来源: Taylor

ISSN:0003-1305    

DOI:10.1080/00031305.1992.10475852

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1992

数据来源: Taylor

ISSN:0003-1305    

DOI:10.1080/00031305.1992.10475853

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1992

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

This article has no abstract

ISSN:0003-1305    

DOI:10.1080/00031305.1992.10475835

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1992

数据来源: Taylor