摘要:

In recent years there have been notable advances in the methodology for analyzing seasonal time series. This paper summarizes some recent research on seasonal adjustment problems and procedures. Included are signal-extraction methods based on autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models, improvements in X–11, revisions in preliminary seasonal factors, regression and other model-based methods, robust methods, seasonal model identification, aggregation, interrelating seasonally adjusted series, and causal approaches to seasonal adjustment.

ISSN:0003-1305    

DOI:10.1080/00031305.1980.10483017

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1980

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

Some governments rely on centralized, official sets of population forecasts for planning capital facilities. But the nature of population forecasting, as well as the milieu of government forecasting in general, can lead to the creation of extrapolative forecasts not well suited to long-range planning. This report discusses these matters, and suggests that custom-made forecasts and the use of forecast guidelines and a review process stressing forecast assumption justification may be a more realistic basis for planning individual facilities than general-purpose, official forecasts.

ISSN:0003-1305    

DOI:10.1080/00031305.1980.10483018

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1980

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

The importance of correct implementation of statistical methodology in a wide variety of research is widely acknowledged. Few universities, however, have given thought to providing a means of ensuring that their research efforts employ statistics in an appropriate manner. Specifically, many universities have not established any formal structure for the delivery of statistical consulting services. This article addresses this problem by discussing how the consultant, the consultee, and the institution fare under a number of different organizational structures. The conclusion reached is that a separately funded consulting center operated as a division of a department of statistics is the most appropriate way to provide statistical consulting and to ensure quality research, although at many universities alternate organizational structures are probably more feasible at this time.

ISSN:0003-1305    

DOI:10.1080/00031305.1980.10483019

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1980

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

A graphical technique, similar in spirit to probability plotting, can be used to judge whether a Poisson model is appropriate for an observed frequency distribution. This “Poissonness plot” can equally be applied to truncated Poisson situations. It provides a type of robustness for detecting isolated discrepancies in otherwise well-behaved frequency distributions.

ISSN:0003-1305    

DOI:10.1080/00031305.1980.10483020

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1980

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

A technique is presented for approximating convolution densitiesf * gby forming the convolution of step-function approximations offandg.This technique, amenable to the electronic calculator or computer, provides suitably accurate graphs for illustrating concepts in probability and statistics. Several examples are included.

ISSN:0003-1305    

DOI:10.1080/00031305.1980.10483021

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1980

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

ForXwith binomial (n, p) distribution the usual measure of the error ofX/nas an estimator ofpis its standard errorSn(p)= √{E(X/n – p)2} = √{p(1 –p)/n}. A somewhat more natural measure is the average absolute errorDn(p) = E‖X/n – p‖. This article considers use ofDn(p)instead ofSn(p)in a student's first introduction to statistical estimation. Exact and asymptotic values ofDn(p), and the appearance of its graph, are described in detail. The same is done for the Poisson distribution.

ISSN:0003-1305    

DOI:10.1080/00031305.1980.10483022

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1980

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

Basu (1958) and Raj and Khamis (1958) have shown that in sampling with replacement the average over distinct units possesses lower variance than the average over the entire sample, including repetitions. While Basu proves the result by the use of the Rao-Blackwell theorem, Raj and Khamis prove it by making use of the distribution of the number of distinct unitsuin the sample, and the proof is quite involved. Here, an elementary algebraic proof is given.

ISSN:0003-1305    

DOI:10.1080/00031305.1980.10483023

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1980

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

A wish list of desirable statistical computing capabilities is presented. This may help one question which of these capabilities can be satisfied by existing packages, which might be met through reasonable extensions to these packages, which might require substantial new development, and which ought to be supplied by the computing environment rather than the packages. These questions are explored, taking into account the nature of the statistical work and the choices presented by technology. Attention is given to the barriers to be overcome if future statistical packages are to take full advantage of new technology.

ISSN:0003-1305    

DOI:10.1080/00031305.1980.10483024

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1980

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

The Consistent System (CS) is an interactive computer system for researchers in the behavioral and policy sciences and in fields with similar requirements for data management and statistical analysis. The researcher is not expected to be a programmer. The system offers a wide range of facilities and permits the user to combine them in novel ways. In particular, tools for statistical analysis may be used in combination with a powerful relational subsystem for data base management. This paper gives an overview of the objectives, capabilities, status, and availability of the system.

ISSN:0003-1305    

DOI:10.1080/00031305.1980.10483025

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1980

数据来源: Taylor

ISSN:0003-1305    

DOI:10.1080/00031305.1980.10483026

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1980

数据来源: Taylor