ISSN:0263-0257    

DOI:10.1080/02630259608970195

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1996

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

Probability statements in applied science cannot be verified, i.e., shown to be true. But, as shown, the models or methods that generate probability statements can be validated in the sense that they can be assessed using real or simulated data. The performance of probabilistic models can be compared in terms of likelihood, Shannon information or entropy. Likelihood and information provide equivalent measures of relative validity. Examples drawn from weather forecasting and seismic engineering illustrate the approach.

ISSN:0263-0257    

DOI:10.1080/02630259608970196

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1996

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

In the spring of 1993, the Utah Special Improvement District project was initiated to improve sidewalks, curb and gutters, and driveway approaches (aprons) in Salt Lake City. One of the critical problems faced during this project was how to recommend the most appropriate treatment decision at the roadway improvement job sites. Therefore, the research was conducted to demonstrate the use of an expert system on a portable computer at the construction job site. A prototype Portable Inspection Expert System (PIES) was developed based on the following factors: displacement, surface condition, water effect, tree root effect, and condition of adjacent sections. PIES can decide if replacement, jacking, or do nothing treatment of concrete sections is required.

ISSN:0263-0257    

DOI:10.1080/02630259608970197

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1996

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

Since the transposition of the 1985 E.C. Directive on Environmental Impact Assessment into Irish law in 1988, it has been the experience that complex Environmental Impact Statements, produced to help decide the best option from a range of alternatives, often contain large volumes of information on the relevant impacts, but make relatively little effort to organise this information into a decision assisting framework that enables the relative merits of the options to be directly compared.

ISSN:0263-0257    

DOI:10.1080/02630259608970198

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1996

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

This paper presents a project-level evaluation of highway maintenance options using the state increment life-cycle cost analysis method. The case study utilizes pavement management data specific to the New York State Thruway Authority (NYSTA). The study demonstrates that the state increment method can be used at the project-level to: (1) assess the effect of treatments on pavement condition and remaining life, (2) determine the optimal time and condition for various treatments using stochastic dynamic programming, (3) evaluate the effects of uncertainty in pavement performance, (4) rank alternatives for each state based on life-cycle cost, and (5) provide remaining life estimates. Based on the case study results, a reasonable probabilistic representation for the pavement state transitions is selected and the condition-treatment matching rules are suitably modified. It is concluded that the presented comprehensive project-level evaluation of highway maintenance has helped adjust and validate the modeling information used in decision making.

ISSN:0263-0257    

DOI:10.1080/02630259608970199

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1996

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

An Artificial Neural Network (ANN) approach was explored for supporting construction bid decisions, since such decisions are heavily dependent on practitioner expertise, which in turn is generally encapsulated in case histories. One of the ANNs described here was trained on knowledge from a sample of the entire Sri Lankan construction industry, and was used to predict the preferred job sizes for firms of differing characteristics; such information could help firms in their bid/no-bid decisions. The other ANN was trained on case histories elicited from a single contractor, and was used to predict the percentage mark-up. The network outputs were obtained in both binary output and continuous valued output formats. The former format had some distinct advantages over the latter, as it provided greater information for decision making instead of being a “black box” output. The influences of the middle layer size, output format and allowable error during training, on the training duration and accuracy of prediction were studied.

ISSN:0263-0257    

DOI:10.1080/02630259608970200

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1996

数据来源: Taylor

ISSN:0263-0257    

DOI:10.1080/02630259608970201

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1996

数据来源: Taylor

ISSN:0263-0257    

DOI:10.1080/02630259608970202

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1996

数据来源: Taylor