ISSN:0263-0257    

DOI:10.1080/02630259608970189

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1996

数据来源: Taylor

ISSN:0263-0257    

DOI:10.1080/02630259608970190

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1996

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

The results of a case study involving two major construction contracting companies are presented indicating the informational and other needs and considerations of construction contract bidding adjudication decision makers. A strategic information model is described and the development of prototype decision support system based on Executive Information System Technology.

ISSN:0263-0257    

DOI:10.1080/02630259608970191

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1996

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

A stochastic streamflow model is used to develop a risk methodology for operation of reservoirs. The model is based upon representation of the flood series as a Poisson counting process. From this model, probability distributions of maximum peak flows, durations, and interarrival times can be obtained. With these distributions known, the flood volumes can be obtained using a triangular hydrograph approximation. Using the derived distribution functions, risk evaluation curves are developed which aid the reservoir operator in making important real time decisions. The procedure can also be used to evaluate the efficiency of alternative design strategies.

ISSN:0263-0257    

DOI:10.1080/02630259608970192

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1996

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

Formulations are presented for estimating probability of failure considering uncertainty of distribution parameters in time invariant and time variant reliability analyses. Based on the formulations the probability of failure can be calculated by recursively using the first order reliability method. Also, a more efficient approximate analysis procedure by using the point estimate method to estimate the probability of failure is given. In this analysis procedure, the point estimate method is used to discretize the uncertain distribution parameters in the time invariant reliability analysis, and to discretize the time-independent random variables and uncertain distribution parameters in the time variant reliability analysis. The probability of failure is then obtained by weighting the probability of failure conditioned at each of discrete points. The conditional probability of failure can be calculated by using first order reliability method, second order reliability method or any other convenient methods. The use of point estimate method to treat uncertain distribution parameters in calculating probability of failure is less computer time consuming than the one of recursively using FORM. Illustrative numerical examples of calculating probability of failure are presented.

ISSN:0263-0257    

DOI:10.1080/02630259608970193

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1996

数据来源: Taylor

ISSN:0263-0257    

DOI:10.1080/02630259608970194

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1996

数据来源: Taylor