摘要:

The basic concepts of probability and utility, as well as their interrelationship, are reviewed. The duality embodied in the definitions of these quantities is emphasized. The assumptions of exchangeability as an alternative to independence, in assessing the implications of data sets and in problems of inference, is shown to offer the opportunity for considerable improvement in statistical analysis. Exchangeability implies that the order of a sequence of random events or quantities is not of significance. The use of a basic urn model in formulating problems involving exchangeability is demonstrated. The extension of the analysis to continuous random quantities as well as to problems of extremes is summarized. An example of the analysis of arrival of icebergs at discrete points in time at the location of an offshore structure is included and it is shown that the results include the uncertainty resulting from short data bases. The added risk associated with this uncertainty is acknowledged implicitly in the methodology.

ISSN:0263-0257    

DOI:10.1080/02630258408970349

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1984

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

Large-scale engineering projects often entail large financial and environmental risks because of their size and long life. Decisions usually have to be made long before the risks can be appreciated. Decision theory should be helpful in this but utility curves are needed for its application and these are almost impossible to obtain. The Kelly criterion, which involves maximizing the expected value of the logarithm of wealth, offers an approach to minimizing financial risk; and Shannon's measure of information offers a criterion for the design of networks for environmental monitoring for early detection of hazards whose characteristics may not be known in advance. Both measures implicitly involve logarithmic utility functions.

ISSN:0263-0257    

DOI:10.1080/02630258408970350

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1984

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

This paper addresses the problem of locating emergency services in urban areas. Location analysis has developed several complex models to help decision makers. These models are computationally efficient but have not been accepted by public sector decision makers. Two case studies illustrate that simple analysis based on conventional wisdom are more useful in resolving these issues.

ISSN:0263-0257    

DOI:10.1080/02630258408970351

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1984

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

The parameters of mathematical programming models for many civil engineering problems can only be stated imprecisely and this leads to the formulation of fuzzy programs. Considerable progress has been made recently in the solution of such programs. The fundamental problem in a Bayesian decision analysis is the evaluation of least-biased estimates of the prior probabilities. If the prior statistical knowledge is stated crisply then the problem reduces to one of nonlinear programming. Where the prior knowledge is itself imprecise, the problem becomes one of fuzzy nonlinear programming. This leads to a general extremum principle which contains the Jaynes-Shannon formalism as a special case.

ISSN:0263-0257    

DOI:10.1080/02630258408970352

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1984

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

Leachate leakage is a major risk associated with sanitary and hazardous waste landfills. This paper describes how two simple performance models, time to breakthrough and leachate leakage flux, can be used in conjunction with a cost model to develop cost-effectiveness relationships which can be used to assist the leachate control system design and planning decision-making process, and, thereby, reduce this risk.

ISSN:0263-0257    

DOI:10.1080/02630258408970353

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1984

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

The concepts of state and state variables are introduced. From a mathematical point of view the concept of state variables provides the means of transforming a differential equation of any order into an equivalent set of first-order equations. From a physical point of view the state of a system, specified by numeric values of the system state variables at a given time, contains all the relevant information about the system necessary to predict the behaviour of the system in the future. The state variable concept is thus very much suited for analysis of dynamic systems. Examples of the state variable concept applied to analysis of discharge from a reservoir and from two reservoirs operating in series are presented.

ISSN:0263-0257    

DOI:10.1080/02630258408970354

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1984

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

Recent research has shown that probabilistic and non-probabilistic dynamic programming techniques can be applied beneficially in the solution of optimal design and management problems in surveying. The survey design system is presented. A non-probabilistic dynamic programming solution of a second order, one dimensional optimal survey design problem is outlined and some applications of Bayesian dynamic programming to survey logistics and management problems are demonstrated. A useful 'technology transfer' technique is included to illustrate one method of introducing systems theory and operations research to survey engineering.

ISSN:0263-0257    

DOI:10.1080/02630258408970355

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1984

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

Decisions in civil engineering systems have to be made in the face of uncertainty. Probability theory has been used to quantify this uncertainty. Claims for the use of fuzzy set theory in accommodating semantic ideas have been made. The relationship between these two theories as expressions of uncertainty in decision making is explored by means of Saaty's two by two construction for the assessment of subjective probabilities and fuzzy supports, and by an examination of the psychological evidence with respect to fuzzy set theories.

ISSN:0263-0257    

DOI:10.1080/02630258408970356

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1984

数据来源: Taylor

ISSN:0263-0257    

DOI:10.1080/02630258408970358

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1984

数据来源: Taylor

ISSN:0263-0257    

DOI:10.1080/02630258408970360

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1984

数据来源: Taylor