摘要:

In 1979–80 the rate of inflation in Australia was greater than in the previous year and, despite the highest rate of growth of real non‐farm output for three years, the number unemployed was greater at the end of the year than at the beginning. This article reviews the current state of the economy and looks at the prospects for 1980–81. In the light of the apparent failure of macroeconomic policy that this review reveals, it discusses the basic strategy of policy, with particular reference to fiscal policy, and considers the extent to which it would be possible to improve the performance of the Australian economy with respect to unemployment and inflation by a change in macroeconomic pol

ISSN:0013-0249    

DOI:10.1111/j.1475-4932.1980.tb01684.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1980

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

The very high levels of teenage unemployment experienced in Australia since 1974 have largely been thought to be he to the diyerential impact of employment demand on the youth labour market. In this paper we show that during the recession teenage employment has been favoured relative to the employment trend of the past and that the large increases in teenage unemployment have largely arisen from the marked change in the labour force participation rate. The paper goes on to examine factors which seem to have been important in generating the changed supply response —changes in school participation rates, the increased importance of part‐time work, increases in unemployment benefits, the permissible income levels for unemployment benefit recipients, changes in wage levels and the important interactions between these various fact

ISSN:0013-0249    

DOI:10.1111/j.1475-4932.1980.tb01685.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1980

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Utilizing bivariate techniques developed by Pierce and Haugh, the causal relationship between the Australian money supply (defined as either M1 orM3) and various monetary base measures is examined. The evidence generally suggests a two‐way causal or feedback relationship with a strong positive contemporaneity, a positive relationship between money and lagged base measures and a negative feedback (or policy reaction) between the monetary base and lagged money. It suggests the possibility of bias in ordinary least squares estimates of money/reserve base ‘reduced form’ relationships in the Australian co

ISSN:0013-0249    

DOI:10.1111/j.1475-4932.1980.tb01686.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1980

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

This paper develops a system‐wide model in which the consumer simultaneously allocates his income to money holdings and consumption. The model is estimated with annual Australian data and the results indicate that relative prices have a significant influence on money holdings. The results are used to decompose the rate of inflation into its. various components, the main ones being money supbly, real income and relative price

ISSN:0013-0249    

DOI:10.1111/j.1475-4932.1980.tb01687.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1980

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

SNAPSHOT is a programming model (of the type often found in the Development literature) of the Australian economy. This paper contains (i) a brief critical overview of the SNAPSHOT theory and (ii) an illustrative application. Forecasts, derived from work by the Bureau of Industry Economics and the IMPACT project. of industry technology in 1990 are wed as an input to SNAPSHOT. The model results then provide a bash for discussing some of the implications of ‐technical change for industry growth prospects and employment prospects by occupatio

ISSN:0013-0249    

DOI:10.1111/j.1475-4932.1980.tb01688.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1980

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Time series studies of labour force participation tend to be rather ad hoc regressions of participation rates on unemployment. The author builds an explicit model of flows into and out of the labour force in which flows are forced by important cyclical variables such as vacancies and duration of unemployment as well as the unemployment rate. The resulting nonlinear model is fitted for Australian data. Among the conclusions of interest is that discouragement eflects are not constant but vary according to the stage of the business cycle. Over moderate ranges of unemployment, discouragement is less than that found by other authors.

ISSN:0013-0249    

DOI:10.1111/j.1475-4932.1980.tb01689.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1980

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

A basic IS‐LM model is used to discuss how parameter estimates may be affected if the observation period on data collected by policy makers (the model builders) differs from that of agents whose behaviour generates the data but who are not policy makers. Estimates may be both biased and inconsistent. In addition. the statistical inconsistency is a function not only of the difference in time horizons. but of the values of the policy instruments used by the policy makers. Optimal economic policy here thus involves the establishment òf instrument settings and particular levels of statistical inconsistencies in the estimated mode

ISSN:0013-0249    

DOI:10.1111/j.1475-4932.1980.tb01690.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1980

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Using a portfolio of similar risk as a control, this study reveals that the application of various sized filter rules failed to earn abnormal returns on the New Zealand Stock Exchange in the 1967–76 period. The risk‐return relationship is given by the well‐known capital asset pricing model. The results are consistent with capital market efficiency in the ‘wea

ISSN:0013-0249    

DOI:10.1111/j.1475-4932.1980.tb01691.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1980

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Book reviewed in this article:Inflation and Employment in Open Economies, edited by Assar LindbeckStudies in the Immigration of the Highly Skilled, by M. J. SalterCommunal Endeavours:Migrant Organizations in Melbourne, by R. UnikoskiDomestic and Multinational Banking:The Effects of Monetary Policy, by Rae WestonPolitics and Policy in Australia, by Geoffrey Hawker, R. F. I. Smith, and Patrick Weller

ISSN:0013-0249    

DOI:10.1111/j.1475-4932.1980.tb01692.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1980

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0013-0249    

DOI:10.1111/j.1475-4932.1980.tb01693.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1980

数据来源: WILEY