ISSN:1080-8620    

DOI:10.1111/1540-6229.00478

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1989

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

This paper reviews the financial option model of under‐utilizing urban land, with primary attention to the question of whether and how the model might move beyond the academic realm toward practical and quantitative applications. It is argued that the theoretical underpinnings that give the option model such power in the financial securities field do not extend to land applications, making it more important to justify the model empirically. Numerical analysis using a “decision analysis” type model of land option value is used in the paper to help guide and focus such empirical study. It is noted that while the option model focuses primary attention on uncertainty in future building values as the cause of land being held undeveloped, previous deterministic models focused on expected future growth in such values as the main cause for land speculation. As these two causes can have different policy implications, it would be desirable to use empirical analysis to gauge their relative importance. A strategy for empirically testing the option model of land is suggested, and concludes that definitive empirical tests will be difficult to achieve, in part because of the subjective nature of many of the model i

ISSN:1080-8620    

DOI:10.1111/1540-6229.00479

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1989

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:1080-8620    

DOI:10.1111/1540-6229.00480

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1989

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Many papers have attempted to explain Intelmetropolitan variations in the price of housing using multi‐equation models of the metropolitan housing market. This paper uses a long‐run equilibrium urban asset model to explain such variations. The model builds upon previous models that introduce uncertainty into the dynamic urban model of land conversion. The empirical results strongly support the asset approach to valuing land in urban ar

ISSN:1080-8620    

DOI:10.1111/1540-6229.00481

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1989

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:1080-8620    

DOI:10.1111/1540-6229.00482

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1989

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Asymmetric information about borrower default probabilities may lead to inefficient credit rationing of low‐risk borrowers in otherwise competitive markets. In a simple model having these properties, we show that some types of government loan programs, such as loan guarantees issued through lenders, might improve economic efficiency. But the incentive for high‐risk borrowers to misrepresent their loan quality is worsened by other government loan programs, notably those that try to target aid directly to rationed borrowers. As such, cost‐effective programs may increase inefficiency. This surprising result highlights the need to conduct model‐specific policy analyses, as opposed to analyses based on model‐free performance i

ISSN:1080-8620    

DOI:10.1111/1540-6229.00483

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1989

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:1080-8620    

DOI:10.1111/1540-6229.00484

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1989

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

This paper addresses the efficiency of the allocation of the capital stock between housing and other types of private capital. Using national income data from 1929 to 1986 the returns to housing capital relative to all other private fixed capital are computed. The analysis indicates that the real returns to capital have been much smaller and much more variable for housing than for non‐housing fixed capital in the U.S. econom

ISSN:1080-8620    

DOI:10.1111/1540-6229.00485

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1989

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:1080-8620    

DOI:10.1111/1540-6229.00486

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1989

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Accurate measurement of the returns to real estate investment are essential to sound analysis. This paper improves upon the traditionally employed method—collecting comparable sales data. A dynamic model of real estate appraisal is developed in which agents have incomplete information, heterogeneous search costs, and varying expectations. Various types of simulation analysis of the model indicate it performs best in the sense that the return estimate converges to the true value faster than other simpler rule

ISSN:1080-8620    

DOI:10.1111/1540-6229.00487

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1989

数据来源: WILEY