摘要:

This paper uses mortgage history data from the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation to analyze the prepayment behavior of homeowners and to test whether borrowers exercise their prepayment options in a manner consistent with contingent claims models. A variety of hazard models are estimated from individual data on more than 6000 mortgages issued during the 1976–1980 period. In these models, it is clear that the extent to which the prepayment option is “in the money” has a strong effect on behavior. However, it is less clear that the option is exercised quite as ruthlessly as the theory pre

ISSN:1080-8620    

DOI:10.1111/1540-6229.00520

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1990

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

The paper uses quarterly indexes of existing single‐family home prices estimated with microdata on properties that sold more than once to estimate excess returns to investment in owner‐occupied housing. Housing prices and excess returns are estimated over the period 1970:1 to 1986:3 for Atlanta, Chicago, Dallas, San Francisco. Using time‐series cross‐section regressions we test for the forecastability of prices and excess returns using a number of independent variables. Price changes in one year tend to continue for more than one year in the same direction. The ratio of construction costs to price, changes in adult population and increases in real per capita income all are positively related to excess returns or price changes over the subsequent year. The results add weight to the argument that the market for single‐family homes is in

ISSN:1080-8620    

DOI:10.1111/1540-6229.00521

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1990

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Existing estimates of movements in vacant land prices are limited to a few metropolitan areas and infrequent time intervals. This paper develops a new methodology for estimating vacant land price trends for subareas within states and metropolitan areas. It utilizes data from a sales ratio study, a large database available in most states. The methodology uses assessed value to control for “hedonic characteristics” associated with the property and its location. A model is developed to correct assessed value for measurement errors. Statistical results for forty‐one Connecticut towns indicate that the model provides a reasonable compromise between data availability and accuracy of price trend esti

ISSN:1080-8620    

DOI:10.1111/1540-6229.00522

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1990

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

This paper formulates and tests a model of rent change based on the natural vacancy rate hypothesis. It incorporates the Haurin [6] hypothesis in which the natural rate for particular units is determined by their atypicality. Estimates of the model indicate a natural rate of 6.5%. However, the rate is shown to vary systematically across individual units: the more atypical an apartment unit, the higher the natural rate.

ISSN:1080-8620    

DOI:10.1111/1540-6229.00523

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1990

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

The determinants of lease rentals are of fundamental importance to real estate researchers and practitioners. Retail leases are unique in that they typically have two rental components: a base rent and an “overage” rent equal to a percentage of the tenant's gross sales above some threshold level. In this paper, we develop and test a simple cash flow model of retail lease valuation that predicts that base rents are lower with higher percentage rent rates and are higher with greater threshold levels of sales. Using a sample of shopping center leases, regression analysis indicates that these tradeoffs are observed in the mar

ISSN:1080-8620    

DOI:10.1111/1540-6229.00524

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1990

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

We test some of the qualitative properties of mortgage pricing models. The models use option pricing techniques, focusing on prepayment as a call option. They imply a quite nonlinear relationship between mortgage price and coupon, interest rates and volatility. We test for both the first and second derivatives of the effects of these variables using data on Ginnie Mae mortgage backed securities. We find that the model is largely supported by the data.

ISSN:1080-8620    

DOI:10.1111/1540-6229.00525

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1990

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

This paper examines the relationship between the asset price of housing and median sales price. We demonstrate: (1) median house prices (as reported by the National Association of Realtors) overstate the increase in constant‐quality house prices by about 2% per year over the 1976–1985 period; and (2) regional differences in median house prices and their rates of increase, respectively, are systematically related to regional differences in real incomes and their rates of increase. We use these results to evaluate the recent proposal to raise the FHA maximum loan limit ceiling from the current ceiling of $124,750 to 95% of the area median house pr

ISSN:1080-8620    

DOI:10.1111/1540-6229.00526

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1990

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

In this paper, a simulation model of commuting behavior in a metropolitan area with decentralized employment and congestion is developed. The model is used to explore the linkage between the dispersed land use patterns in U.S. cities and long commuting journeys which cause congestion and air pollution. The results show that increasing the number of suburban subcenters in a metropolitan area could reduce commuting by 15% to 50%. However, only about one quarter of total urban travel is for commuting. Therefore the reduction in total urban travel that could be expected to result from even drastic policy measures to decentralize employment would probably be low—perhaps as small as 5%. Data are also presented giving private versus social costs of commuting per mile in central cities and suburb

ISSN:1080-8620    

DOI:10.1111/1540-6229.00527

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1990

数据来源: WILEY