摘要:

Capital budgeting models for project selection have been extensively explored, but relatively little attention has been given to the aspects of post-audit and project control for the projects implemented. This paper examines the area of project control and proposes a method that incorporates post-audit information as an active element in the decision to maintain or terminate an initiated project. Project selection is primarily based on anticipated performance, as determined from the most accurate information available. However, in a sequential decision environment, information that is accurate at one point in time may become inaccurate at another. This paper will show how the Dirichlet distribution can be utilized to formulate appropriately weighted prior probability beliefs, and how these initial beliefs can be updated as we receive post-audit information. To do this, we incorporate categorized cash flow data in a unique Bayesian-based framework. To illustrate the use of the Dirichlet distribution, we present a case study of an actual automation decision for a flexible manufacturing system. This case study also demonstrates how decision strategies can be improved by using post-audit information, when compared with conventional methods.

ISSN:0013-791X    

DOI:10.1080/00137919008903022

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1990

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

A thorough understanding of the concept of duration is essential to sophisticated fixed—income security management and is useful in many capital budgeting applications. This paper uses principles from physics to provide intuition into the duration statistic.

ISSN:0013-791X    

DOI:10.1080/00137919008903023

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1990

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

Stochastic sensitivity analysis explicitly considers the uncertainty common in engineering economy. Like simulation, the variables probability distributions are the input. The output, like deterministic sensitivity analyses, relates changing variables to changes in the model's outcome (present worth). However, the x —axis is now probabilistic so that break-even probabilities are r-axis distances. Areas represent conditional expected values and expected values of perfect information. This solid intuitive basis contrasts with a uniform pdf assumption that underlies typical sensitivity graphs. The probability metric permits relative sensitivity analysis of variables that are measured in different units. Spreadsheets easily support this method.

ISSN:0013-791X    

DOI:10.1080/00137919008903024

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1990

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

The present worth (PW) and future worth (FW) decision criteria are to be found in virtually all current engineering economy textbooks. Although the relationships between the internal rate of return (IRR) criterion and PW has been widely discussed in the literature, there remains some misunderstanding as to similar relationships between PW and FW. Of particular importance is the interest rates at which PW and FW are maximized. It is shown here that the maximizing rates are not necessarily equal. This leads to the seemingly peculiar result that a change in the discount rate may decrease the PW while at the same time increasing the FW, or vice versa. Numerical, mathematical and intuitive arguments are presented.

ISSN:0013-791X    

DOI:10.1080/00137919008903025

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1990

数据来源: Taylor

ISSN:0013-791X    

DOI:10.1080/00137919008927994

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1990

数据来源: Taylor

ISSN:0013-791X    

DOI:10.1080/00137919008927995

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1990

数据来源: Taylor

ISSN:0013-791X    

DOI:10.1080/00137919008927997

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1990

数据来源: Taylor

ISSN:0013-791X    

DOI:10.1080/00137919008927998

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1990

数据来源: Taylor

ISSN:0013-791X    

DOI:10.1080/00137919008927999

出版商:Taylor & Francis Group    

年代:1990

数据来源: Taylor