摘要:

AbstractThe concepts of feedback and systems analysis are compatible with a control system model of human behavior. Control theory can contribute a model of the individual for use in larger models of social systems, in which more general feedback phenomena can be found. A review of the properties of control systems shows that they act to make their own input match internal standards or reference signals.Competent control systems create illusions of stimulus‐response causality. While stimulus‐response theory can approximate the relationship between disturbance and action, it is unable to predict the consequences of behavior. Control theory shows how consequences are maintained despite disturbances.A control theory view of individual human behavior is applicable in all sciences that deal with social systems—not as a metaphor for social control systems but as a description of the properties of the individuals who generate social phen

ISSN:0883-7066    

DOI:10.1002/sdr.4260060102

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1990

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractDo better models lead to better decisions? This case study assesses three computer‐based models designed to examine the distributional effects of a single school finance reform in the state of New York. The three models—a tactical simulation model, an econometric model, and a system dynamics simulation model—differ from each other in terms of five classes of assumptions applied to the analysis. Within a political decision‐making environment, the simpler tactical simulation model (essentially a data base management system) produces the most useful results because it requires few assumptions on the part of analysts. However, this class of models also fails to analyze more complex interactions within the school finance system and hence tends to lock decision makers into a myopia defined by one‐year projections. The net effect of introducing computer‐based models into the decision‐making process is to make school finance decision making more myopic. For politically based decisions about distributional impacts, the availability of more sophisticated models does not appear to lead to more sophisticated decision‐m

ISSN:0883-7066    

DOI:10.1002/sdr.4260060103

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1990

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractFuel substitution in OECD‐European electricity production is described by a putty‐clay formulation. At the time of investment, fuel shares are determined according to a logit model. These fuel shares are maintained throughout the lifetime of the power plants. However, a significant share of capacity is assumed to be flexible. Short‐term fuel switching is described by a logit model. An attempt has been made to formulate the model such that all parameters have a real‐life interpetation. This enables the use of a priori data about all parameters. The model gives a very good fit to historical time series for oil, gas, and coal demand when fuel premiums are calibrated. The most striking finding is that there is a strong preference for the use of coal. Because of the a priori data, the model is not very sample‐dependent. Thus, it should be well suited for policy studies or for predictions. The model should be used with caution if very high fuel prices are

ISSN:0883-7066    

DOI:10.1002/sdr.4260060104

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1990

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractThis article describes a model of the life cycle of the petroleum resource in the United States. Expanding on prior system dynamic models of petroleum resources, the model endogenously generates the complete life cycle of the resource. It treats endogenously petroleum demand; the development of technology for, and investment in, exploration and recovery; discovery and production of petroleum; and the development of petroleum substitutes. With only two exogenous variables, GNP and the international petroleum price, the model portrays the evolution of the U.S. petroleum resource, and the associated industry, starting in 1870. The correspondence between simulated and actual data is examined through a variety of statistical measures. The model is used to show how the interaction between technological progress, depletion, imports, and the development of substitutes creates the life cycle by altering the dominance of the feedback processes in the system.

ISSN:0883-7066    

DOI:10.1002/sdr.4260060105

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1990

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractNotes and Insightsis a forum for discussion and debate about current issues in the philosophy and application of the system dynamics approach, and a marketplace for the exchange of information about current research, policy issues, and teaching experiences. Manuscripts treating material particularly suited to presentation in short form (less than 2,000 words) should be sent to Erich Zahn, Betriebswirtschaft‐liches Institut, Abt. IV, Universität Stuttgart, Keplerstr. 17, D‐7000 Stuttgart 1, F

ISSN:0883-7066    

DOI:10.1002/sdr.4260060106

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1990

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractIn this section theSystem Dynamics Reviewpresents problems having the potential to stimulate system dynamics research. Articles may address real‐world dynamic problems that could be approached fruitfully from the system dynamics perspective, or methodological problems affecting the field. A paper submitted to theResearch Problemssection should concisely motivate and define a problem and start a process of conceptualization or formulation that can open the way for further studies. Manuscripts not exceeding 2,000 words should be sent to George P. Richardson, Milne 308, Rockefeller College, S.U.N.Y., Albany, NY 12222, U.S.

ISSN:0883-7066    

DOI:10.1002/sdr.4260060107

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1990

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractThis section of theSystem Dynamics Reviewis an eclectic source of information on items of interest to the system dynamics community. Conferences, articles, books, dissertations, speeches, software and hardware products, and teaching materials will be mentioned in this space. The purpose of the section is to provide summaries to help the system dynamics community keep abreast of recent progress related to the field and to anticipate important future events. Submissions covering a wide range of areas and information of possible interest to system dynamicists are encouraged, and should be sent to R. Joel Rahn, Faculté des Sciences de l'Administration, Université Laval, Ste. Foy, Quebec, G1K 7P4, Canad

ISSN:0883-7066    

DOI:10.1002/sdr.4260060108

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1990

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0883-7066    

DOI:10.1002/sdr.4260060109

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1990

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0883-7066    

DOI:10.1002/sdr.4260060110

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1990

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0883-7066    

DOI:10.1002/sdr.4260060111

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1990

数据来源: WILEY