摘要:

AbstractThe Bonneville Power Administration uses system dynamics to assist in its analysis of conservation policies for the Pacific Northwest electric system. This article describes the system dynamics models—the Conservation Policy Analysis Models—and explains why they are useful. After briefly describing model design and assumptions, the article gives examples of model application. One example involves simulation studies of a hypothetical policy by contractors. The second example involves Bonneville's own study of policies under consideration in the 1986 resource strategy. Key features that have made the models useful at Bonneville are no

ISSN:0883-7066    

DOI:10.1002/sdr.4260050102

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1989

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractThis study uses a system dynamics model based on an integration of micro‐and macroeconomic theories to understand economic growth with a nonrenewable natural resource. The case of oil‐dependent Indonesia is used as an empirical reference for the study. Long‐run growth patterns resulting from various intuitively appealing development policies are analyzed, and an attempt is made to identify the best policy set for attaining a sustainable growth pattern. The study shows that influencing factor prices to facilitate adoption of capital‐intensive technologies accelerates development and is a key policy for sustaining growth in the l

ISSN:0883-7066    

DOI:10.1002/sdr.4260050103

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1989

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractSheep farmers in the Cape Midlands region of South Africa frequently sustain stock losses through predation by caracal lynx. Further losses are incurred because of hyrax competing with the sheep for pasture. As hyrax constitute the principal food of lynx, culling either hyrax or lynx has complex feedback effects.A system dynamics model of this system comprising sheep, hyrax, lynx, pasture, and revenue sectors has been formulated. The model is used to simulate the system under different culling strategies.By comparing stock positions and farming revenue generated over a number of years under different culling strategies, an optimal culling policy is determined using an optimization procedure. A parameter sensitivity analysis reveals that the policy recommendations are relatively insensitive to parameter uncertainty.

ISSN:0883-7066    

DOI:10.1002/sdr.4260050104

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1989

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractThe theory of model simplification is presented as a means of increasing model understanding. Simplification is based on a selection of the behavior modes defined by the linearized representation of the model and results in a smaller and more easily understood model. To allow understanding, the variables in the simplified model must be easy to interpret relative to those in the original model. This interpretation is complete in an exact simplification, a concept used to derive measures of the importance of different variables in generating selected behavior modes. These measures are used to select which variables to retain and which to omit in forming the simplified model. Issues in the application to nonlinear models are considered, and software that facilitates model simplification is discussed.

ISSN:0883-7066    

DOI:10.1002/sdr.4260050105

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1989

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractThe shared paradigms of society, the public discourse, the deepest assumptions about how the world works, these are the ultimate sources of system structure and the primary obstacles to structural change. The reigning paradigms of the western world are astonishingly unsystematic, and they give rise to badly structured, difficult‐to‐manage large‐scale social systems with persistent problems, such as pollution, poverty, and war. One way to contribute to the restructuring of those systems is to bring more clear, accurate, and inclusive systems concepts into the public discourse—to communicate systems insights regularly and powerfully through the press.Even the simplest ideas of system dynamics—stocks, flows, positive and negative feedback, the effect of delays, the importance of nonlinearity—can help to clarify public discussion and improve public policy. They must be communicated without jargon, without mathematics, without loop diagrams. That can be done, and the best partners in doing it are those who are already professionals in the art of public communication—the members

ISSN:0883-7066    

DOI:10.1002/sdr.4260050106

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1989

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractNotes and Insightsis a forum for discussion and debate about current issues in the philosophy and application of the system dynamics approach, and a marketplace for the exchange of information about current research, policy issues, and teaching experiences. Manuscripts treating material particularly suited to presentation in short form (less than 2,000 words) should be sent to Erich Zahn, Betriebswirtschaftliches Institut, Abt. IV, Universität Stuttgart, Keplerstr. 17, D‐7000 Stuttgart 1, F.R

ISSN:0883-7066    

DOI:10.1002/sdr.4260050107

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1989

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractThis section of theSystem Dynamics Reviewis an eclectic source of information on items of interest to the system dynamics community. Conferences, articles, books, dissertations, speeches, software and hardware products, and teaching materials will be mentioned in this space. The purpose of the section is to provide summaries to help the system dynamics community keep abreast of recent progress related to the field and to anticipate important future events. Submissions covering a wide range of areas and information of possible interest to system dynamicists are encouraged, and should be sent to R. Joel Rahn, Faculté des Sciences de l'Administration, Université Laval, Ste. Foy, Quebec, G1K 7P4, Canad

ISSN:0883-7066    

DOI:10.1002/sdr.4260050108

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1989

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0883-7066    

DOI:10.1002/sdr.4260050109

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1989

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0883-7066    

DOI:10.1002/sdr.4260050110

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1989

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0883-7066    

DOI:10.1002/sdr.4260050111

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1989

数据来源: WILEY