摘要:

Drawing upon the choice models developed in the multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) area, this paper proposes an architecture for designing an intelligent decision support system (DSS) that is intended to aid in making choices among multiple alternatives along multiple dimensions. It argues that effective support can be provided to the decision maker when the knowledge‐based DSS is capable of dynamically selecting choice models appropriate to the domain and context of a particular problem being specified by the decision maker, and of properly applying them to the problem solution. Development of a prototype intended to partially represent application of the architecture is described. The paper concludes with suggestions for research extension

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1991.tb01258.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1991

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

The development of reliable and valid measures of user‐information satisfaction is becoming increasingly important to both practitioners and researchers. Measures of reliability include internal consistency and stability. Recent research has raised concerns about the stability of user information satisfaction measures. Using the test‐retest correlation method, this article assesses short‐ and long‐range stability of a 12‐item scale for measuring end‐user computing satisfaction. It examines the stability of individual items and subscales as well as the 12‐item instrument. The results suggest that the instrument is internally consiste

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1991.tb01259.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1991

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

There have been many applications of the maximal covering location problem (MCLP). An underlying assumption of the MCLP is that demand not covered (i.e., not within a prespecified maximal distance of a facility) is not served. This may be an unrealistic assumption in many location planning scenarios, especially in the public sector. For example, in cases such as fire protection or ambulance service, calls not technically covered will still be serviced. The MCLP, however, does not consider the distances or travel times necessary to service such demand.This paper presents a bicriterion locational covering model which explicitly considers the travel distance or time necessary to service demand not within the maximal covering distance of a facility. The model may be used to generate noninferior (Pareto optimal) siting configurations which demonstrate the inherent trade‐offs between a siting scheme designed to maximize total coverage and one designed to minimize total travel time for uncovered demand to reach its nearest facility. In addition, it is shown that for any particular weighting scheme on the two objectives, the problem can be solved as ap‐median problem; a problem for which several efficient solution methods ex

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1991.tb01260.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1991

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

For convex and concave mathematical programs restrictive constraints (i.e., their deletion would change the optimum) will always be binding at the optimum, and vice versa. Less well‐known is the fact that this property does not hold more generally, even for problems with convex feasible sets. This paper demonstrates the latter fact using numerical illustrations of common classes of problems. It then discusses the implications for public policy analysis, econometric estimation, and solution algorithm

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1991.tb01261.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1991

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Subjective probability distributions constitute an important part of the input to decision analysis and other decision aids. The long list of persistent biases associated with human judgments under uncertainy [16] suggests, however, that these biases can be translated into the elicited probabilities which, in turn, may be reflected in the output of the decision aids, potentially leading to biased decisions.This experiment studies the effectiveness of three debiasing techniques in elicitation of subjective probability distributions. It is hypothesized that the Socratic procedure [18] and the devil's advocate approach [6][7] [31][32] [33][34] will increase subjective uncertainty and thus help assessors overcome a persistent bias called “overconfidence.” Mental encoding of the frequency of the observed instances into prespecified intervals, however, is expected to decrease subjective uncertainty and to help assessors better capture, mentally, the location and skewness of the observed distribution. The assessors' ratings of uncertainty confirm these hypotheses related to subjective uncertainty but three other measures based on the dispersion of the elicited subjective probability distributions do not. Possible explanations are discussed. An intriguing explanation is that debiasing may affect what some have called “second order” uncertainty. While uncertainty ratings may include this second component, the measures based on the elicited distributions relate only to “first order”

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1991.tb01262.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1991

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Accuracy of the Pearson‐Tukey three‐point approximation is measured in units of standard deviation and compared with that of Monte Carlo simulation. Using a variety of well‐known distributions, comparisons are made for the mean of a random variable and for common functions of one and two random variables. Comparisons are also made for the mean of an assortment of risk‐analysis (Monte Carlo) models drawn from the literature. The results suggest that the Pearson‐Tukey approximation is a useful alternative to simulation in risk‐analysis

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1991.tb01263.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1991

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

A probabilistic dealing strategy is proposed which allows all premium brands in an established market to earn nonnegative profits without cooperation. Following the strategy, brands take turns attracting deal‐responsive customers. Relative to a reactive competitive strategy, the proposed strategy improves the positions of all premium brands. With use of the strategy, average deal sizes are positively related to a brand's market share, the proportion of quality conscious customers, the proportion of informed customers, the span of regular prices in a market, and the range of customers' acceptable price

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1991.tb01264.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1991

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Strategic information systems planning (SISP) is the process whereby an organization establishes a long‐range plan of computer‐based applications in order to achieve its goals. A number of problems can potentially impede information systems planners as they carry out the process. A survey of 80 firms who completed the SISP process revealed that the problems constitute five factors: the organization, implementation, database, hardware, and cost. A discriminant analysis showed that three factors—the organization, implementation, and database—best distinguished satisfied from dissatisfied information systems planners. A research application of the five factors suggested that organizations with more sophisticated business planning endure significantly less severe hardware and implementation p

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1991.tb01265.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1991

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Management information systems (MIS) development is a process in which a user's vague, ambiguous, informal thoughts are translated into precise, nonambiguous, formal systems specifications required for implementation on a computer. A variety of MIS development methodologies have been developed, many designed to model a business‐oriented MIS in which either function modeling or data modeling predominates. Yet many of these techniques are inadequate for modeling time‐dependent behavior of the MIS, particularly when the MIS involves asynchronous, concurrent execution of cooperating processes. This paper proposes a tripartite approach to MIS development in which descriptions of “what” the MIS is to do, and “how” it is to do it are more closely related to the actual system implementation than with traditional development methodologies. The technique is based on three independent modeling tools used in conjunction: data flow diagrams, Petri nets, and production rules. The methodology in the context of computer integrated manufacturing systems is

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1991.tb01266.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1991

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Improvement on existing techniques for multilevel lot sizing in material requirements planning was sought by developing a theoretical and mathematical basis for the problem. Such a foundation was employed to design a heuristic which was superior in both cost performance and computational efficiency, and provided consistent results regardless of designated environmental factors. This represents a significant advantage over other algorithms tested here and within the literature, in that their performances are dependent upon various lot‐sizing environmental factors.The heuristic is based on the technique for order placement and sizing (TOPS), a single‐item technique, and utilizes a mechanism for linking interdependent lot‐sizing decisions. The inputs are applied in a sequential manner to constitute sequential TOPS with incremental look‐down (STIL). A two‐phase experimental design was employed to evaluate the performance of STIL against optimality and other heuristics. Results from the initial phase of simplified problems revealed practical indifference from optimality for the new algorithm. Phase 2 emphasized the relative strength and consistency of the proposed heuristic versus all other rules tested over more difficult examples. The final stage also indentified environments in which STIL performed particularly well. These were more descriptive of common industrial settings than were cases in which existing methods have been shown to be

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1991.tb01267.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1991

数据来源: WILEY