摘要:

ABSTRACTSimulation techniques are widely used for analyzing the policy decisions of managers. This paper presents a “higher‐level” use of simulation to analyze the modeling decisions of analysts, which models are, in turn, useful for policy analysis. Methodological systems simulation (MSS) is described in terms of a systems performance prediction problem. The MSS program is outlined and the two major uses of MSS‐evaluation of alternative models and simulation of the analyst–are described in terms of the results of simulation runs using the systems performance predictio

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1974.tb00589.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1974

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

ABSTRACTThis paper discusses the Stochastic Dominance (SD) approach to the evaluation of risky assets. Given a set of portfolios, the familiar EV procedure chooses a set of EV‐efficient portfolios while the SD procedures choose SD‐efficient sets that usually are quite similar to (but not identical with) the EV‐efficient set. The SD approach can be employed as a refinement of the EV model or as an alternative method of evaluating portfolios. The SD view has certain conceptual advantages in the screening of a set of portfolios, but the EV model has the important advantage of an optimizing algorithm that builds efficient portfolios. Also, the SD approach requires more data than the EV app

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1974.tb00590.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1974

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

ABSTRACTIn this paper a Monte Carlo sampling study consisting of four experiments is described. Two error distributions were employed, the normal and the Laplace; and two small sample sizes (20 and 40) were tested. The question of simultaneous‐equation bias called for two‐stage estimators. TheL1, norm was employed as a means of comparing the performance of theL1or least squares estimators. A relatively new algorithm for computing the direct least absolute (DLA) and two‐stage least absolute (TSLA) estimators was employed for the experiments. The results confirmed the hypotheses that for non‐normal error distributions such as the Laplace the least absolute estimators were

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1974.tb00591.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1974

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

ABSTRACTThe usual analysis of the deterministic economic order quantity problem seeks to minimize the average cost of inventory ordering and holding costs per unit time. An alternative approach described in this paper examines the present value of discounted costs over an infinite horizon. Differences in the solutions and implications of errors using the two methodologies are discussed.

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1974.tb00592.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1974

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1974.tb00593.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1974

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

ABSTRACTThis paper describes the results of a simulation study to examine the effects of different organizational structures on the performance of a dual‐constraint job shop production system. A hypothetical shop in which machines and workers are constraining resources is the setting of the study. The shop consists of divisions comprised of work centers which, in turn, contain machines to which workers are assigned. There are fewer workers than machines. Variations in organizational structure are achieved by different allocations of a fixed number of work centers to the divisions. Each structure is studied for three levels of labor flexibility. Mean flow‐time, flow‐time variance, and worker transfers between divisions and work centers are used as performance mea

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1974.tb00594.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1974

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

ABSTRACTMany hospitals have historically used a fixed staffing policy for allocating nursing personnel, in which the daily demand in each ward is met by nurses who arepermanentlyassigned to the specific wards. In recent years, the concept of variable staffing has been proposed as a means of increasing manpower efficiency. A variable staffing policy is one which provides for staffing adjustments to meet work load through the use of a common pool of cross‐trained nurses.In this paper, a model is formulated to evaluate the relative benefits of variable and fixed staffing policies. Results from a Monte Carlo evaluation of the model demonstrate how the hospital administrator can assess the sensitivity of savings to changes in policy and operating parameters. Several criteria which an administrator might adopt for equating levels of patient care under alternative staffing schemes are suggested and studied. The proposed method of analyzing benefits of alternative allocation procedures shows promise for evaluating policy choices in hospitals, as well as other service organizations with similar characteristic

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1974.tb00595.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1974

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

ABSTRACTThis paper applies discriminant analysis to a relatively large sample of residential mortgages‐some of which have defaulted or have been foreclosed and others of which have remained untroubled at least until the date of the last observation‐in an attempt to derive a function which would allow mortgage lenders to increase their accuracy of predicting mortgage difficulty.From the data available for testing, no improvement in predictability is obtained, because it is thought that the data may already have been badly biased by the screening process of the loan officers which had already taken place and by the post‐loan origination nature of the important variables in mortgage difficulty. The latter is confirmed by discriminant models of post‐origination variables which are successful. It is concluded that changes in home value, changes in mortgagor income, mortgage assumption, and regional economic considerations are the major explanations of mortgage dif

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1974.tb00596.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1974

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

ABSTRACTCity and regional planners exist in an environment where they must satisfy numerous contending pressure groups. This paper illustrates an application of utility and decision theory in one such situation: the selection of a “land‐use plan” for a large rural area in a southeastern state. The planning group was required to generate a utility matrix for a set of alternative plans consistent with their perceived hierarchy of needs for the region in question. Subsequently, expected value calculations were used to determine the optimal plan. The examination concludes with a discussion of the reliability and sensitivity of this approach, along with an exploration of areas for possible utilization and the problems attendent th

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1974.tb00597.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1974

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

ABSTRACTA decision‐making orientation to systems design has been suggested to overcome some of the current deficiencies of computer‐based information systems. This paper derives several hypotheses from a decision‐making framework proposed by Robert Anthony. These hypotheses are tested with empirical data from a sample of twenty major computer‐based information systems drawn from seven Bay Area manufacturing firms. The results indicate that present computer‐based information systems follow the descriptive aspects of the Anthony framework, but have had little effect on top management. There is little evidence of common guidelines for systems design which are accepted by the different companies. The data also indicate that users have a strong negative reaction to large numbers of computer‐produced reports. The implications of the results for systems design ar

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1974.tb00598.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1974

数据来源: WILEY