摘要:

AbstractThe problem of maintaining a balance between production output and demand growth during new product introductions is analyzed. In many cases, the introduction of a new product results in both rapid demand growth and significant changes in the production rate through‐out the startup period, during which productivity and product output increase significantly. It is demonstrated that, if these two phenomena are not estimated and used as a basis of closely coordinated planning between production and marketing, very large costs can be incurred – either lost sales and potential introduction failure related to stock out conditions caused by “underproduction” or excess inventory holding, obsolescence and opportunity costs when an over production imbalance occurs. Following a description of the problem examples are used to illustrate the benefits of increasing rigor in the joint planning of new product introductions. Finally, a general methodology based upon an heuristic pattern search algorithm is employed to provide an optimal solution to a multivariate planning

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1973.tb01700.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1973

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractThe problem of amalgamating individual preferences to form a group or social choice has been the subject of much discussion and controversy. This paper describes an approach to the problem which, it is argued, should be followed in certain situations. The argument in favor of the approach involves applying a theorem of Goodman and Markowitz [6] in a context somewhat different from theirs.

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1973.tb01701.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1973

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractSimple “yes or no” questions can be replaced in opinion surveys by equivalent questions involving k≥3 answer categories. Interpretation of these classifications as subjective probability levels leads to efficient survey designs, in the sense that high precision in the estimator of the population characteristic can be achieved with rather small sample sizes. Explicit formulae for bounds on sample size, obtained under several different philosophies, are given, together with illustra

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1973.tb01702.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1973

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1973.tb01703.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1973

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractIncreasing attention has focused in recent years on the use of spectral analytic techniques for the analysis of economic time series data. Sovereign, Nolan and Mandel [26] have recently outlined the basic concepts underlying such analysis and presented examples relating to the management science area including inventory demand, transportation simulation and stock market price behavior. The purpose of this paper is to supplement and extend their tutorial with a discussion of some of the problems involved with the application and interpretation of spectral statistics, emphasizing the problems of stationarity and detrending and data windows. Additionally, the scope of the examples is broadened to include applications in the area of monetary economics.The first part of this paper presents a brief discussion of the objectives of spectral analysis. Since this paper attempts to extend the work of Sovereign, Nolan and Mandel, only a heuristic discussion of spectral techniques of analysis is presented. This is followed by a more detailed description of the problem of stationarity and the effects of detrending upon the interpretation of spectral results. Then we consider the problem of estimating a continuous curve with finite information and the implications of both of these problems by presenting several applied examples in the area of monetary economics. The concluding section of this paper briefly summarizes some additional considerations in harmonic analysis of economic time series data and notes some potential directions for future research.

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1973.tb01704.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1973

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1973.tb01705.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1973

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractOrganizations are in constant interaction with their environment. This phenomenon has been termed in the literature as the environment‐organizational interface. An organization acquires information concerning changes in its environment via some scanning system. This paper presents the results of an empirical investigation of the scanning process. The relationships of scanning to different environmental states is discussed and various propositions advanced. Different environmental states (stable versus dynamic) are moderated by the determinants of hierarchical levels and functional specialties in the fir

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1973.tb01706.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1973

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractRecurrent decision making by a lower‐level manager can be viewed as a sequential decision process in which time and uncertainty are limiting factors. Under these conditions, the manager must determine how to best utilize his decision making time consistent with his own particular set of decision values. A dynamic programming model was devised to determine the optimal (consistent) allocation of decision time among five different types of problems for a sequence of simulated recurrent decision situations. Fifty‐one lower‐level managers were interviewed about their use of decision time and decision procedures. The model was validated by comparing model assumptions and results with the findings from the interviews. The model was used to determine the effects of variations in the levels of time available and uncertainty upon the optimal allocation of decision

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1973.tb01707.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1973

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractStudies concerning innovative behavior have applied many predictor variables, to the point where a purge to reduce redundancy now appears in order. Factor analysis with orthogonal varimax rotation was applied to product perception and demographic, socioeconomic, and predispositional variables in order to reduce their numbers without a significant loss of information. The derived rotated factors were then related by way of factor scores obtained from respondent data to a surrogate measure of innovative behavior using multiple regression equations. The resulting coefficients of determination, while smaller than those originally derived using all of the perceptual and predispositional variables individually, were not reduced by any massive amounts. Thus, the gain from reducing the number of predictor variables through the use of factor analysis seems to more than off‐set the modest reduction in explained variance. Moreover, the resulting factors and their item loadings suggest possible alternative predictor variables to those that have commonly been used in past studies concerning the diffusion of innovation

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1973.tb01708.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1973

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractIt is a rather widely held view that a large majority of purchases ofputandcalloptions are unprofitable, and that the profit to be made is in writing the options. A number of authors have suggested that selling options can be a profitable adjunct to institutional portfolio management. The results of an analysis of variance factorial design of a random selection of options in various market trends, shows that only a slim majority of the options purchased would have been unprofitable. In addition, if one is able to forecast the market trend, a random selection of the proper type of options would yield a high return.

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1973.tb01709.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1973

数据来源: WILEY