摘要:

ABSTRACTThis paper addresses the issue of uncertainty in planning the long‐term development of facility systems. In certain instances, the high variance of a single future forecast can be reduced by using a set of alternative future scenarios. By carefully selecting facility configurations, the planner can delay the selection of a future set of facility sites at little or no sacrifice while additional information is gathered and uncertainty reduced. This allows the planner to maintain flexibility in adapting to a complex and dynamic environment.Several models are presented for different planning contexts. Examples for each, as well as a robust bicriterion solution heuristic, are also provide

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1982.tb00126.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1982

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

ABSTRACTIncreasingly, business firms will be disclosing management forecasts in financial reports to investors. Single estimates based on a consensus view (e.g., Delphi estimates) may be used. It seems logical, however, to consider methods that seek formally to derive internally consistent subjective views regarding the sensitivity of assumptions and interacting events on forecasts.The major purpose of this paper is to extend micro‐level cross‐impact analysis to a macro‐level eigenvalue analysis approach that elicits views of the effects of assumptions and interaction events on entire scenarios. Both methods are illustrated and contrasted. They are complementary rather than alternative methods. In particular, each method offers some potential in the development of operational guidelines for elicitation and reporting of management forecasts. In addition, the eigenvalue analysis offers several key advantages that make it potentially useful in preparing entire scenario fore

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1982.tb00127.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1982

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

ABSTRACTTop‐level decision making in business organizations is characterized by high degrees of uncertainty, incomplete information, and conflicting objectives. To support top‐level decision making effectively, decision support systems (DSSs) have been proposed. Information supplied by a DSS must be selective in that not all possible information sets may be feasibly or economically represented in the data base. This study suggests that discovery of perceptual complexity (dimensionality) of information items, and the subsequent categorization of decision makers having the same perceptions of those information items, is a first step in the ultimate design of an effective DSS. Through the use of multidimensional scaling in a field setting, this study shows the feasibility of creating relatively homogeneous groups of decision makers according to the content and number of dimensions associated with various information items. Further results of the research suggest that information can be tailored to classes of users, which has cost‐benefit implications as well as the potential to improve the quality of the resultant deci

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1982.tb00128.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1982

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

ABSTRACTThe work of Doehlert has involved an investigation of automobile‐color preferences and their relationship to color perceptions. For the most part, Doehlert's work has pointed to congruency. Other work, dealing with formal congruency testing between unfolded preferences and perceptions, has proven somewhat disappointing. Since the nature of the stimulus set may play a role in a resulting congruency, this study will attempt to replicate and extend the work of Doehlert. Given replication, a framework for stimulus set uniqueness may be obtained. Either way, keynote implications for marketing decision making are to be develope

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1982.tb00129.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1982

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

ABSTRACTBecause the eight largest bank failures in United States history have occurred since 1973 [24], the development of early‐warning problem‐bank identification models is an important undertaking. It has been shown previously [3][5] thatM‐estimator robust regression provides such a model. The present paper develops a similar model for the multivariate case using both a robustified Mahalanobis distance analysis [21] and principal components analysis [10]. In addition to providing a successful presumptive problem‐bank identification model, combining the use of theM‐estimator robust regression procedure and the robust Mahalanobis distance procedure with principal components analysis is also demonstrated to be a general method of outlier detection. The results from using these procedures are compared to some previously suggested procedures, and general conclusions

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1982.tb00130.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1982

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

ABSTRACTSmall business loan applications have not been evaluated successfully by traditional methods. This paper explores the possibility of using three types of nonfinancial ratio variables (owner, firm, and loan characteristics) to predict whether a small business will pay off or default its loan. The owner and loan variables were better predictors of loan success than the firm variables.

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1982.tb00131.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1982

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

ABSTRACTSeveral analysts have advocated the TIC criterion for the selection of bids in the tax‐free bond market. The proponents, however, have overlooked the bias introduced by the TIC method. An analysis is developed which shows that use of TIC can result in economically incorrect rankings for the issuer. We prove, under conditions of certainty, that given any Bid A, it is possible to construct Bid B with coupon rates arbitrarily close to Bid A such that the TIC criterion leads to acceptance of the bid with the higher present value of interest cost

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1982.tb00132.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1982

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

ABSTRACTOften, order quantity decisions are made by purchasers facing a price schedule of quantity discounts. Traditional solution procedures have consisted of the evaluation of total cost at numerous price‐break points in search of the lowest total cost. This approach is tedious and not particularly informative, especially when one is faced with lengthy schedules.This paper presents a total setup lot‐sizing model that reduces the computations required to find the least‐total‐cost quantity, given parameters from a supplier's price schedule.The parameters are first obtained by simple regression (graphical or computer) and in themselves can provide valuable insight for the purchaser's decision making. A total setup lot‐sizing model is next developed to define a “critical interval” that contains the solution. The model and algorithm are tested under a variety of conditions. Their application offers the decision maker a convenient alternative to determine the best quantity to order from a tendered p

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1982.tb00133.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1982

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

ABSTRACTThis paper presents a modification of the dynamic lot‐size algorithm of Wagner and Whitin for rolling horizon environments. The computational results show that the modified algorithm gives better cost performance than the Wagner‐Whitin algorithm and the Silver‐Meal heuristic. The improvements over the Wagner‐Whitin algorithm require very few additional compu

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1982.tb00134.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1982

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

ABSTRACTThe calculation of reorder points when the distribution of lead‐time demand is normal is quite complex, primarily because of having to bound it away from negative demand values. A number of researchers have sought feasible alternative forms of lead‐time demand which can be calculated without undue difficulty. It is proposed here to assume a Poisson (daily) demand and an exponential lead time (days). If they are assumed independent their convolution is geometric, which is itself asymptotically exponential. This has a number of advantages: (1) The exponential lead time is appropriate where the lead time is often short (i.e., local source), occasionally longer (when the local sources stock out), and, infrequently, quite long. (2) The geometric lead‐time demand is independent of changes of time scale. (3) Reorder points and lot sizes appear in simple closed form. (4) The exponential asymptote is sufficiently close that this further simplification is usually warr

ISSN:0011-7315    

DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1982.tb00135.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1982

数据来源: WILEY