ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1987.1

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1987

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractThis paper presents the preliminary findings of a survey carried out into modelling. The survey consisted of sending a questionnaire to all members of the Operational Research Society (42% response rate).The survey investigated the structure of the OR Society membership; the educational background of OR Society members; the functional involvement, skill requirements and time division of OR Society members; the frequency of use of modelling areas by OR Society members; the types of computers used by OR Society members, and their involvement with decision support systems and expert systems. Full details of the survey, questionnaires and results are given in the paper.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1987.2

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1987

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractIn many cases, a firm or agency needs a product that only one vendor can supply and for which the final cost is uncertain. An optimal risk-sharing arrangement is sought when the buyer and contractor agree on the probability distribution of cost but the buyer is uncertain of the contractor's risk-preferences. We find that when the buyer and contractor have exponential utilities, the optimal profit arrangement for the higher risk-averse contractor is no longer linear but concave in the costs. The degree of concavity is affected by the probabilistic beliefs on the contractor's risk-preferences. As the more risk-averse contractor becomes more likely, her chosen profit arrangement becomes less concave approaching the ideal, linear arrangement. The less risk-averse contractor is provided a profit arrangement with a certainty equivalent above her reservation price. This is the price the buyer must pay in order to entice a less risk-averse contractor into agreeing to accept a more risky profit arrangement.Another formulation is considered that assumes the buyer and contractor maximize approximations to their certainty equivalents in order to provide a more practical and possibly viable approach to sole-source contracting.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1987.3

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1987

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractThis paper examines the problem of urban solid-waste disposal by landfill. In such disposal, intermediate transfer stations are often used for processing before transport to the landfill. Located at the periphery of waste-generating areas, these transfer stations can compact or recover reusable materials, or merely transfer the waste to heavier and more efficient transporters for the longer, final leg of the trip to the disposal site. The model presented here optimizes disposal costs by trading off transportation costs against the capital and operating costs of introducing the transfer stations. A branch-and-bound procedure is used to obtain the optimum, and an imbedded simplex code serves to provide the solution at each branch.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1987.4

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1987

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractRule induction has been proposed as a way of speeding up the acquisition of knowledge for expert systems. Quinlan's ID3 algorithm has been used successfully but can only deal with determinate data. This paper explores extensions to deal with statistical data.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1987.5

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1987

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractThis paper formulates a Bayesian model to predict growth and eventual market saturation of a recently introduced (and possibly expensive) consumer-durable product. The mathematical model assumes that each new buyer buys only one item of the product, that the number of new buyers of the product in the next period of time is influenced by the current number of non-buyers and that the probability an individual will buy is the result of a diffusion of news among satisfied buyers. The solution of the prediction problem includes a two-stage Bayesian updating formula which first revises the prior distribution of market saturation based on the most recent number of new buyers and then, conditional on the saturation level, computes the predictive distribution of new buyers in future time-periods.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1987.6

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1987

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractThis paper discusses the equilibrium behaviour of the generalizedM/G/nblocking system with heterogeneous servers. The system is evolving in a random environment controlled by an irreducible, aperiodic,m-state Markov chainZ(t). This paper deals with the main characteristics, such as utilization, the average length of busy period of the system, the mean number of occupied servers and the probability of blocking. Finally, numerical examples illustrate the problem in question.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1987.7

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1987

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractBritish Rail's suggested measure of the quality of a passenger timetable is outlined and tested for its sensitivity to the choice of various parameters. The statistic is then modified to take account of the varying levels of demand at different times of the day. Finally, ways are suggested to incorporate the effects of possible delays to the advertised service to reflect the actual quality provided.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1987.8

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1987

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractThis paper examines the interactions between the demand forecasting and reordering subsystems in inventory management. Simulation is used to study the average discrepancy between a desired customer service level and that actually achieved, and the increase in average annual inventory cost resulting from fluctuations in the forecast demand parameters of several lumpy demand patterns.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1987.9

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1987

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractThe problem of determining the economic order quantity under conditions of permissible delay has been recently analysed. This note analyses the same problem under assumptions of the‘classical’economic order quantity model, obtaining different results.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1987.10

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1987

数据来源: Taylor