摘要:

AbstractQuantitative forecasting techniques are not much used in organizations. Instead, organizations rely on the judgement of managers working close to the product market. Increasingly however, developments at the interface between marketing and operations require more accurate forecasting. Quantitative marketing models have that potential. Drawing on theories from the‘diffusion of innovation’literature and results on‘the barriers to effective implementation’, this paper first considers those factors that should be included in any complete evaluation of market forecasting. Using this framework and based on detailed survey work in a multi-divisional organization, the paper then describes how this company produces its market forecasts, and the perceptions of its managers as to inadequacies in the procedures. Reasons are proposed as to why quantitative forecasting techniques are not effectively used. The paper concludes with a discussion of the causes behind the organization's mismanagement of their forecasting activity and how these activities might best be improved.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1994.1

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1994

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractThis note describes two phases in the development of an expert system that translates European-wide directives into individual flight orders. This expert system was built for a military computer simulation, but parts of the logic can apply—and many of the illustrations in the text have been tailored—to creating and organizing commercial flights. The first phase of the development—a proof of principle expert system—emulated the logical deductions of an air traffic control supervisor or a flight planner. The second phase of development led to a working prototype decision support system that employed more mathematical comparisons of aircraft attributes than logical deductions.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1994.2

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1994

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractAn experimentally derived formula has implications for (i) the measurement of a runner's workrate; (ii) choice of gradient in running uphill; and (iii) the use of Naismith's rule in deriving schedules for fell runners.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1994.3

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1994

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractThe study presents the results of a mail survey on the utilization of Operational Research (OR) techniques in tackling complex operational problems in the private sector in Nigeria. The survey was mailed to OR practitioners in nearly 1000 companies and was aimed at determining the familiarity with, and usage of, OR techniques, background of OR personnel, degree of computer usage, application areas, implementation and contributions of OR, problems attendant in using OR techniques, and future prospects for OR usage.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1994.4

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1994

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractA dynamic programming (DP) algorithm is proposed for a class of non-point source pollution control problems. The formulation deals with the selection of a spatial distribution of management practices in such a way as to meet a control agency's sediment pollution target. The inherently combinatorial nature of these problems—stemming from the discrete nature of the decision variables, which are production, conservation and mechanical control practices—gives them a special integer programming structure. This paper focuses on the DP formulation and the computer implementation of this algorithm. The approach is shown to be informative, robust and relatively efficient. Furthermore, the paper demonstrates that dynamic programming can be used to generate sensitivity analysis information for multiple-choice knapsack problems.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1994.5

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1994

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractThis paper demonstrates how a multicriteria decision model (MCDM) using an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) can overcome the difficulties arising from the complexity, subjectivity and lack of group consensus in the evaluation of advertising agency selection criteria. The model was applied to a publishing house reviewing their selection procedures, providing a list of prioritized values of agency criteria, which ultimately influence agency selection. It was discovered how the level of potential decision making influence, or power, affects the overall group priorities and rankings of criteria by comparing three computer simulations for allocating power amongst the group using Expert Choice Software. The findings suggested that dominant power may not always be critical in affecting group rankings. Any critical level of dominance was subsequently identified using sensitivity analysis. By encouraging reflection and revision, the technique has much potential for improving contributions amongst the group, and restraining critical levels of dominance.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1994.6

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1994

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractThis paper describes a two-step algorithm for solving the layout problem while assuming the departments can have varying areas. The first step solves a quadratic assignment problem formulation of the problem using a heuristic cutting plane routine. The second step solves a mixed-integer linear programming prob- lem to find the desired block diagram layout. The algorithm incorporates two concepts to make the solu- tions more practical. First, rearrangement costs are simultaneously considered along with flow costs in solving a dynamic layout problem involving multiple time periods. It is the only algorithm to solve a general dynamic layout problem with varying department areas. Second, regular department shapes are maintained by requiring all departments to be rectangular. Its formulation for doing this is more efficient than previous algorithms.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1994.7

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1994

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractThe economic goals and the resulting locational objectives of a franchisor and its individual franchisees are frequently in conflict. For example, one goal of the franchisor is to maximize system-wide market coverage, while the corresponding goal of the franchisee is to maximize his or her individual market share. Consequently, the optimal facility siting scheme from one perspective may be suboptimal from the other. That is, the facility siting scheme which maximizes system-wide coverage will not necessarily maximize the market shares of the individual franchises which make up the system. In this paper we introduce a multiobjective integer programming model to design franchise networks. The model selects franchise locations and identifies individual franchise market areas. Constraints in the formulation guarantee that all franchise locations are assigned at least a minimal threshold market area with sufficient demand to ensure economic survival. An underlying assumption of the model is that a rationing mechanism exists to assign demand to various franchise locations. Consequently, the model is most appropriate for service delivery franchises in which the franchisor can define and enforce exclusive franchise territories for the various franchise outlets. The purpose of this model is to generate alternative siting configurations which demonstrate the inherent trade-offs between the objectives of the franchisor and the individual franchisees. Given these various location alternatives, it is expected that the franchisor will then evaluate them in terms of other criteria such as the likelihood of the individual franchisee's success, pricing strategies for the various sites, total costs, total profit, and the effects of the response of competitors. Consequently, the proposed model should be viewed as an aid for one aspect of the decision process, i.e. the generation of alternative courses of action.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1994.8

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1994

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractThis paper presents a modification of one variant of Karmarkar's interior-point linear programming algorithm to Multiobjective Linear Programming (MOLP) problems. We show that by taking the variant known as the affine-scaling primal algorithm, generating locally-relevant scaling coefficients and applying them to the projected gradients produced by it, we can define what we refer to as anchoring points that then define cones in which we search for an optimal solution through interaction with the decision maker. Currently existing MOLP algorithms are simplex-based and make their progress toward the optimal solution by following the vertices of the constraints polytope. Since the proposed algorithm makes its progress through the interior of the constraints polytope, there is no need for vertex information and, therefore, the search for an optimal solution may prove less sensitive to problem size. We refer to the class of MOLP algorithms resulting from this variant as Affine-Scaling Interior Multiobjective Linear Programming (ASIMOLP) algorithms.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1994.9

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1994

数据来源: Taylor

摘要:

AbstractThis paper discusses the problem of locating a single obnoxious or undesirable facility so as to maximize its rectilinear distance from a given set of existing facilities. An outline of published linear programming methods is given. Based on these ideas we present an algorithm which exploits known properties of the optimal solution and does not use linear programming at all.

ISSN:0160-5682    

DOI:10.1057/jors.1994.10

出版商:Taylor&Francis    

年代:1994

数据来源: Taylor