摘要:

This paper analyses acreage response of major crops in Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta and in the prairies as a whole during the period 1958 to 1969 and forecasts crop acreages in each province. Four recurrent programming models, one for each province and one for the prairies as a whole, were developed. Major crops included in the model are wheat, oats, barley, rye flaxseed, rapeseed and summerfallow.The recursive programming models explained the land utilization pattern in all the provinces and the prairies with reasonable accuracy. The acreage forecasts for 1971 were close to the observed acreages for wheat, oats, rye and summerfallow, but were different for barley, flaxseed and rapeseed.Price, stocks, exports, precipitation and the preceding year's crop acreage were found to be significant variables affecting prairie land utilization patterns. In response to an agricultural policy designed for changing land use, prairie farmers can substantially change their crop acreages even in a year's time. Responses to a policy may also vary by crops. This study also suggests that interrelationsliips among crops should be considered for developing agricultural land use policy. Returns from alternative crops should be examined for ascertaining the effectiveness of the policy.Ce document analyse la réaction mix conditions exislantes des acres de principales récoltes du Manitoba, de la Saskatchewan, de ľAlberta et de ľensemble des Prairies durant la période de 1958, a 1969, et prédit les superficies qui seront cttltivées en 1971 dans chaque province. Quatre modèles de programmes, récurrents tin pour ľensemble des Prairies et tin pour chacun des provinces, out été préparés. Les principales récoltes comprises dans le modèle sont le blé, ľavoine, ľorge, le seigle, le tin, le colza et la jachère.Les modèles des programmes récurrents expliqucnt ďune facon plus ou moins exacte la mode ďutilisation des terres dans toutes les provinces. Les prédictions se rapportent aux superficies en acres pour 1971 se rapproclient des superficies qui out été cultivées àľégard du blé. de ľavoine, due seigle el de la jachére, mais files différaient quant a ľorge le tin et le colza.Le prix, les stocks en main, les exportations, les précipitations et les superficies cultivées de ľannée précédente sont des variables importantes influant le mode ďutilisation des terres dans les Prairies. En résponse à un programme agricole destinéà changer ľutilisation des terres, les agriculeurs des Prairies peuvent change les superficies de leurs récoltes dans ľespace ďun an. La reaction à un programme peat attssi varicr scion la récolte. Cette étude estiine en outre que ľon devrait considérer la corrélation entre les récoltes pour élaborer un programme ďutilisation des terres agricoles. Les recettes tirées de diverses récoltes de

ISSN:0008-3976    

DOI:10.1111/j.1744-7976.1975.tb00939.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1975

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Canada's agricultural potential during the 1980's will be constrained by the availability and prices of productive agricultural land, water, energy, labour, and technology. Resources for further expansion of agricultural production are becoming increasingly scarce. Past expansions were made possible largely by the substitution of cheap fossil energy for expensive labour. Further expansion will necessitate new technology that is both energy saving and labour saving. A multifaceted program involving government, farmers, and other components of the food system is needed to achieve Canada's agricultural potentials. Agricultural expansions in the 1990's will depend first upon the success of the programs designed for the 1980's and second upon new scientific knowledge and technological adaptations. Without a massive and well coordinated effort to meet the needs of agriculture, Canada could become a food deficit nation before the end of this century.Le potentiel de ľAgriculture du Canada durant les 1980's va être contraint par la disponibilité et le pri.x de la terre, ľeau, ľenergie, le travail et la technologie productive. Les ressources pour ľavancement de la production agricoie deviennent de plus en plus rare. Les expansions du passé ont été possible par la substitution de ľénergie fossile pour le travail dispendieux.Un autre anvancement va nécessiter une nouvelle technologie qui sauvera ľenergie et le travail.Un programme qui comprend le gouvernement les fermiers et touts les autres constituents du système alimentaire est nécessaire si le Canada va achever son potential agricoie. Les expansions agricoles des 1990's vont depéndre premièrement du succès des programmes developpés pour les 1980's et deuxièment de nouvelles connaissances scientifique et de nouvelles adaptations technologigues. Sans un effort massif et sans un grand effort coordonné dans le domaine de ľagriculture, le Canada peut devenir un pays qui manque de la nourriture a

ISSN:0008-3976    

DOI:10.1111/j.1744-7976.1975.tb00940.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1975

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

This article deals with the use of a heuristic learner in a simulation model. Simulation modes do not lend themselves to optimizing algorithms thus the use of search procedures are very important when employing a similation model. This paper brings together the concepts of probability and entropy in the use of a learner for simulation models. The learner in this study uses past information as its source upon which to base the next economic decision. Once the decision is made then the outcome of that decision is used to direct the learner for the next decision. This type of learning is consistent and useful for experimental design such as simulation.Cette article concemc ľusage de ľassimilation intellectuelle heuristique dans une modèle de simulation. Les modèles de simulation ne se prêtent pas a ľoptimation des algorithmes, mais ľusage des mèthodes de recherche sont très importante quand il s'agit ďntiliser des modèles. Ce document rassemble les concepts de probabilité et ďintropée dans ľusage de ľassimilation intellectuelle pour des modèles de simulation. Dans cette étude ľassimilation intellectuelle utilise les informations antécédentes comme référence, et on y base les décisions economiques ulterieurs. Ces décisions prises, les résultats serviront à orienter ľassimilation intellectuelle lors des prochaines décisions. Ce type ďassimilation intellectuelle est logique et utile au model expérimenta

ISSN:0008-3976    

DOI:10.1111/j.1744-7976.1975.tb00941.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1975

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

SUMMARYTracing the income patterns of individual farm operators whose major source of income is generally derived from farming indicates that off‐farm income is becoming an increasingly important income component. The relative importance of off‐farm income has nearly quadrupled during the last 20 years, rising from about 10 percent of total income to about 37 percent of total income. Most of this off‐farm income can be traced to wages and salaries. These fractions are heavily dependent upon relative income levels. In 1970, very low income farmers posted an aggregate net farm loss whereas the $15,000 ‐ $20,000 class secured about three‐quarters of their total income from farm sources. In this same year, wages and salaries were generally the prime off‐farm income source for farmers with an assessed income of less than $20,000. Dividends and interest were more important to farmers with an income in excess of $20,000. These differences are faithfully reflected in the regional compilations. As a percent of total income, off‐farm income ranged from 41 percent in Ontario to about 29 percent in Quebec. The composition of off‐farm sources also varies considerably between regions.In 1970 the income position of taxable unincorporated farm operators (who relied on the farm for their major source of income) remained relatively unfavorable. These farmers still had one of the lowest average incomes of any major occupational class in Canada, with an income distribution which was relatively equally distributed between income classes and not unlike that of the national average. These assessed income statistics, of course, are not necessarily indicative of thewelfareposition of the respective occupational classes. The calculations conducted are simply illustrative of how income tax statistics can be utilized to facilitate our understanding of the income structure in primary agriculture today. The exercise simply underlines the observation that:The fact that there are conceptual differences between income tax data and other data sources should not detract from the usefulness of the income tax data …. Income tax statistics can stand as an independent data source for the analysis of a variety of issues [13].For many purposes the tax definition of a farm operator may be more operational than the concept of a farmer as defined in theCensus of Agriculture. We might profit considerably from further analyses which attempt to disaggregate Census farms into more homogeneous farm‐types using the tax s

ISSN:0008-3976    

DOI:10.1111/j.1744-7976.1975.tb00942.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1975

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0008-3976    

DOI:10.1111/j.1744-7976.1975.tb00943.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1975

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

SUMMARYIn this study an attempt was made to determine and evaluate the factors affecting an individuaľs probability of milk use in terms of a multivariate probit model. Cross‐sectional survey data obtained through telephone interviews of individuals in three New York State Markets were used in the analysis. Various economic, demographic and socio‐economic variables were hypothesized as being influential in determining an individual's likelihood of using fluid milk. Accordingly, the respondent's age was found to be highly influential in determining probability of milk use. Specifically, milk use probabilities were found to decrease as the age of the respondent increased. Moreover, the probability of milk use was found to be significantly greater for male respondents than for females. Also, if an individual was a consumer of beer or coffee, his probability of milk use was significantly reduced. Milk use probabilities were also reduced if the respondent was a consumer of soft drinks; however, they increased if he was a consumer of fruit juices or drinks. The level of household income was not found to be significant in affecting the respondent's probability of milk use. In general, if an individual could recognize the milk promotion themeandidentify it with milk, his likelihood of milk use was greater than for his peer who was unaware of the promotion t

ISSN:0008-3976    

DOI:10.1111/j.1744-7976.1975.tb00944.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1975

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0008-3976    

DOI:10.1111/j.1744-7976.1975.tb00945.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1975

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0008-3976    

DOI:10.1111/j.1744-7976.1975.tb00946.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1975

数据来源: WILEY