摘要:

The objective of this paper is to estimate the costs and effects of federal and provincial government programs designed to stabilize the incomes of B.C. hog producers. Simulation was used to provide these estimates. This involved building a mathematical model of the B.C. hog industry, including important supplyldemand relationships and the operating characteristics of alternative stabilization schemes. Successive runs of the model were made, each assuming operation of a different stabilization scheme. Results are presented for the current Agricultural Stabilization Act and a guaranteed margin approach (federal) and the B.C. Swine Producers' Income Assurance Program (provincial).L'Objectif de cet article est d'bvaluer les couts et les effets des programmes provinciaw et fkdtraux destints il stabdiser les revenus des producteurs porcins de la Colombie Britanique. Ces evaluations one ttt obtenues par simulation. Ceci a nktssitt la construction d'un modMe mathtmatique du secteur du porc de la Colombie Britanique, comprenant d'une part des relations d'offre/demand et d'autre part les caracttristiques operationnelles des divers plans de stabilisation. En supposant A chaque fois I'application d'une plan difftrent de stabilisation, des simulaitons successives one Ctt entreprises pour I'actuel plan ftdtral de Stabilisation (Agricultural Stabilization Act), le plan fedtral de marge guarantie. et le programme provincial actuellement utilist en Colombie Britanique (B.C. Swine Producers Income Assurance Program).

ISSN:0008-3976    

DOI:10.1111/j.1744-7976.1980.tb01928.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1980

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

The complex nature of cattle production and its multi‐year production process confronts policy makers with a difficult problem of evaluating proposals relating to the cattle subsector. A mathematical programming sector model is developed to assist policy makers in objectively analyzing alternative proposals. The model explicitly incorporates individual producer behaviour and accounts for the dynamic nature of cattle production through a multi‐year formulation and endogenous valuation of ending inventory. To account for transitional adjustment more fully, a recursive quadratic programming model is employed.The model s specified for Guyana, South America. New production alternatives for Guyanese cattle producers are simulated. The results indicate that two new alternatives are viable and also demonstrate the usefulness of the model as a tool to evaluate such proposals.La nature complexe et le caractère pluri‐annual du processus de production bovine confronte les planificateurs à un difficile problème d'évaluation des projets liès à ce secteur. Un modèle sectoriel de programmation mathématique a été développé pour aider les planificateurs à analyser objec‐tivement les différents projets envisagés. Le modèle incorpore explicitement le comportement in‐dividuel du producteur et prend en ligne de compte la nature dynamique de la production bovine à travers une formulation pluri‐annuelle en une évaluation endogène des stocks de fin de periode. Afin de prendre entierément en consideration les adjustements transitionnels, on a employé un programme quadratique récursif.Le Modèle a été spécifié pour la Guyana située en Amerique du Sud. De nouvelles alternatives de production proposées aux éleveurs guyanais ont été téstée et simulée avec ce modèle. Les résultats obtenus indiquent que deux de ces alternatives son viables. Ils démontrent également l'utilité d'un

ISSN:0008-3976    

DOI:10.1111/j.1744-7976.1980.tb01929.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1980

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0008-3976    

DOI:10.1111/j.1744-7976.1980.tb01930.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1980

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0008-3976    

DOI:10.1111/j.1744-7976.1980.tb01931.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1980

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

In a classical article in 1959, Ragnar Frisch [8] developed a procedure, which, under the assumption of want independence1and given commodity budget shares, income elasticities, and one own‐price elasticity, allows one to calculate a complete matrix of own and cross price elasticities. Between broad commodity groups such an assumption (want independence) has becme increasingly accepted and in fact under the label of separability has formed the basis for a family of demand models that are increasingly used to estimate demand elasticities for broad commodity groups (the linear expenditure system, the Rotterdam model, etc.). At the individual commodity level however, the assumption of want independence seems less viable, e.g., the utility one derives from pork is in general not considered independent from one's consumption of beef. However, it has become increasingly common (and apparently acceptable) to find the Frisch methodology utilized to develop demand price elasticity estimates for individual agricultural commodities [4, 7, 17

ISSN:0008-3976    

DOI:10.1111/j.1744-7976.1980.tb01932.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1980

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Very little research has been done in evaluating the basic principles and assumptions of the actuarial structure for premium ratemaking in crop insurance programs. Therefore, the objectives of this study are: (a) to examine the Pearson probability distribution of actual crop yields as compared with an application of normal‐curve theory to crop yields as compared with an application of normal‐curve theory to crop yield distributions and in turn to crop insurance ratemaking which was suggested by Botts and Boles in 1958 [1]; (b) to evaluate the pure premium rates derived from estimated Pearson probability distributions for wheat yields in 14 crop districts of the province of Manitoba; and to establish an experience rating system for the crop insurance program based upon the estimated Pearson distribution of actual crop yields on the individual f

ISSN:0008-3976    

DOI:10.1111/j.1744-7976.1980.tb01933.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1980

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Spectral analysis has been applied many times in agricultural economics in determining harmonic characteristics of observed time series. However, spectral techniques have rarely been applied in conjunction with models which stress economic relationships. But two such empirical approaches are possible. One can use either frequency‐domain regression of times series, i.e., general distributed lag estimation, in which time series of all important economic variables are considered [4, 5, 11], or one can use ordinary econometric estimation methods and then study frequency content of estimated disturbances with spectral techniques [1, Chapter 10]. The application of spectral analysis in this paper corresponds to the latter case. Ordinary time‐domain (rather than frequency‐domain) regression methods are used because the general lag relationship estimated here is not a case included in the general frequency‐domain regression model. First, nonlinear regression techniques are used to explain the usual economic content of acreage supply response. Then estimated disturbances are investigated using spectral analysis to determine the importance of cyclic behavior in aggregate supply response. Specifically, this paper demonstrates how a cross section of time series may be pooled to obtain statisticaly significant findings when time series are short. These methods are demonstrated in an investigation of harmonic content in regression disturbances apparently due to crop r

ISSN:0008-3976    

DOI:10.1111/j.1744-7976.1980.tb01934.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1980

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Woodet al[4] have criticized Kevan's [1]analyses of blueberry production in New Brunswick as related to insecticide applications. Their criticisms have elements of validity, but do not refute in general Kevan's conclusions. That is not to say Kevan's original analyses were not overly simple. However, we present here further arguments which lend strong credence to the essential validity of Kevan's position [1, 2] that blueberry production in New Brunswick has suffered since 1970 because of applications of fenitrothion directed at spruce‐budworm infestations in the forest, but which also have adversely affected native pollinating bees of the blueberry lands. The crucial feature of the criticism is Kevan's choice of the co‐variate, Nova Scotia, with which to compare New Brunswick. Woodet alobject to the choice of Nova Scotia because of the presence of positive trend in blueberry production. In order to clarify this objection it is necessary to point out that Kevan used the time period 1960‐75, wheras Woodet aluse 1951‐77. The trend coefficients and their significance levels for 1960‐75 for New Brunswick and Nova Scotia were —0.017 (p = .849) and 0.251 (p= .047), respectively. These estimates support Woodet al. However, Woodet algo on to argue that Kevan should have used Maine as the comparison; their correct logic up to this point is now us

ISSN:0008-3976    

DOI:10.1111/j.1744-7976.1980.tb01935.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1980

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Book reviewed in this article:Caqueza: Living Rural Development by Herbert Zandstra, Kenneth Swanberg, Carlos Zulberti, and Berry Nestel, International Development Research CentreApplied Economics: Resource Allocation in Rural Americaby Rueben A. Buse and Daniel W. Bromley, Iowa State University Press

ISSN:0008-3976    

DOI:10.1111/j.1744-7976.1980.tb01936.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1980

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0008-3976    

DOI:10.1111/j.1744-7976.1980.tb01937.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1980

数据来源: WILEY