ISSN:0033-6807    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-9310.1972.tb00097.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1972

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Abstract. The use of Research Planning Diagrams as an aid for project planning and evaluation is described. A computerized simulation technique for the analysis of the probabilities associated with a diagram is illustrated by means of a worked example.

ISSN:0033-6807    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-9310.1972.tb00098.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1972

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Abstract. Numerous ranking formulae have been proposed in the literature for use in the evaluation and selection of R&D projects, but their rate of adoption has been relatively slow. This situation appears to be changing in the U.K. and a considerable amount of effort is being expended to improve the methods of obtaining estimates for the variables which appear in the formulae. This paper argues that the most commonly quoted formulae do not adequately represent the practical situation and are likely to introduce bias into the system as well as tending to make estimating more difficult. A modified ranking index derived from a decision tree type of analysis is suggested as a more useful estimate of the worth of a project, but it is concluded that any such formulae will always have serious limitations because they must inevitably ignore important characteristics of the research process.

ISSN:0033-6807    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-9310.1972.tb00099.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1972

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Abstract. Recent, essentially mathematical, studies of the rate of diffusion of innovation have gone far towards providing a methodology of quantitative prediction once an innovation is well under way. For many purposes, however, possibilities must be assessed and decisions taken at a much earlier stage. This is not easy and the author feels that in concentrating attention on the fully quantifiable factors we are tending to neglect other equally important factors which do not lend themselves to quantification.In this paper* the major determinants of rate of diffusion are discussed qualitatively in relation to a number of case studies of textile innovations made at the Shirley Institute.

ISSN:0033-6807    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-9310.1972.tb00100.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1972

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Abstract. The criterion according to which the plans of a research organization can be optimized with respect to modelling R&D management consists in maximizing such profits as the envisaged results of research investigations may practically achieve throughout their application. The constraints are the available time and financial resources of the research organization, any investment outlays to be made by the beneficiaries and the time and money expenditures required for the solution of each individual theme competing for inclusion in the investigation plan. Mathematically it is a linear programming problem with bivalent variables. Because of the reduced size of the system a dynamic programming approach is also possible.

ISSN:0033-6807    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-9310.1972.tb00101.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1972

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Abstract. This is a description of the development of a comprehensive training exercise for R&D managers entitled DEVEX. It is an accelerated ‘off‐the‐job’ learning exercise aimed at middle to senior industrial R&D managers and with the broad general goal of improving their grasp of the relationship between business/market strategy and R&D s

ISSN:0033-6807    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-9310.1972.tb00102.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1972

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Abstract. Any realistic assessment of research projects must allow for possible failures. Scaling down the Potential gain from each project by its probability of achievement ignores the expenditure on unsuccessful projects and is therefore misleading. The method proposed here is more sound: it uses a concept termed the Survival Probability Function, which is simplytheprobability that a Project will still exist at various times in the future. This function can be derived from estimates for the survival factors and durations of project stages. The function can then be used to calculate the statistics of project successes and failures, and can be employed in a standard Risk Analysis. More simply, if can be used as a weighting function for cash flow patterns. This leads to a comparison method for projects with different risks and different potential returns, and thus to project portfolio selection.

ISSN:0033-6807    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-9310.1972.tb00103.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1972

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0033-6807    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-9310.1972.tb00104.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1972

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0033-6807    

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-9310.1972.tb00105.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1972

数据来源: WILEY