摘要:

The reliability of the quarterly national income and product (NIP) accounts of the United States is examined from several standpoints. First, possible sources of error in the quarterly NIP accounts are explored, the most important being the lack of appropriate data, seasonal adjustment errors, sampling errors and biases, and the nature of the U.S. statistical system. Next, four ways of assessing the reliability of the accounts are considered. The most weight is given to measures of revisions in early estimates of the quarterly NIP aggregates. Results of previous studies of revisions are reviewed, and a summary of a major study of revisions for the period 1947–71 is given. The other ways of assessing reliability which are examined are the effect of errors on economic policy making, analysis of the statistical discrepancy, and expert judgment on sources and methodology.The degree of accuracy is judged to be generally sufficient for the policy decisions for which the NIP estimates are used. The early estimates of a quarter's change in GNP almost always distinguish whether the ultimate estimate will be large or small and will usually distinguish whether the ultimate estimate will be larger or smaller than the preceding quarter. While the accuracy of the estimates has generally been sufficient, the accuracy for 1965 was judged insufficient by policymakers. There is some evidence that errors have been reduced over tim

ISSN:0034-6586    

DOI:10.1111/j.1475-4991.1974.tb00905.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1974

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Most developing countries have compiled national accounts on a regular basis only for the last few years. It has not yet been possible for them to collect many of the statistics necessary to obtain good coverage of their economic activities by methods which would generally be accepted as reliable. Consequently the checks on reliability imposed by the framework of the national accounts are often absent, and the accounts prepared contain many estimates of doubtful quality. These doubts can usually only be removed as statistics collected by better methods become available. This is proving to be a slow process, partly because of the shortage of trained statistical staff and the competing demands of social and demographic statistics and partly because of the inherent difficulties in collecting good statistics from small businesses and traditional households. The need to define traditional households as producers as well as consumers leads to our demanding extra information from this difficult sector. In addition it is often difficult for the national accounts statistician, and even more so for the user, to find out in the time available exactly how some of the statistics with which he is presented were obtained. When this cannot be done it is impossible to assess their reliability. Thus assessing the overall reliability of national accounts in developing countries for even a limited range of uses is at present largely a matter of personal judgment. The information necessary to make more objective assessments rarely exists and hence the problems which developed countries face in using such information are not yet within the experience of most developing countries.

ISSN:0034-6586    

DOI:10.1111/j.1475-4991.1974.tb00906.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1974

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

The basic theme of Mr. Webster's practical and uncontentious paper is that unreliability undermines credibility. In the following comment specific issues he mentions will be considered in more detail to illustrate some of the principal general points made in his paper.

ISSN:0034-6586    

DOI:10.1111/j.1475-4991.1974.tb00907.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1974

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Economic realities can be described in national accounting only by certain approximative means and presumptions; therefore they cannot be measured with absolute accuracy. However, because of their great importance these investigations must fulfil as far as possible the reliability required for the economic control and planning of the national economy, in accordance with predetermined concepts and methods.The reliability of national accounting is favourable in Hungary, as they are based mostly (92 percent) on the bookkeeping data of enterprises, cooperatives and institutions. The bookkeeping system is uniform in all economic organizations, in conformity with central regulations, and it takes into account the demand of computations for national accounting.Despite these favourable conditions lesser or greater contradictions can be found in the national accounts every year. The absolute measure of the differences is not significant; however, if compared to the annual increase it results in uncertainty of 15 percent. The uncertainty is reduced by the fact that the sign of differences is the same every year.The author classifies the causes of uncertainty in national accounts into four groups: 1. problems of the time shift of the connected economic processes and of their accounting; 2. effect of the enterprise interests; 3. inadequacy of methodological regulation; 4. inaccuracy of data surveys and processing. The study deals with the special factors of inaccuracy occurring in constant price accounting. Inaccuracy of the most important aggregates, for instance that of the volume index of the national income, comes to 0.5‐0.7 percent which results, in the case of a yearly 5 percent “real” increase in the index, in reliability limits of 10 to 15 percent.In the concluding part of the study the author points out that in Hungary the unexplored contradictions are not shown as “statistical discrepancy” but they are included in the various aggregates on the basis of considerations discussed in

ISSN:0034-6586    

DOI:10.1111/j.1475-4991.1974.tb00908.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1974

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

The author addresses himself first to the problem that summary measures of wage income inequality, computed for Kinshasa, the main urban area in Zaire, tend to overstate the degree of total labor income inequality among sharing units of comparable size. It is argued that this is true for two main reasons: (1) earnings from female commercial activity are not recorded in the available statistics; and (2) the 1960 UN definition of household upon which the measures of inequality are based understates the size of the actual sharing unit. Data taken from the 1967 Socio‐Demographic Survey of Kinshasa and the 1970 household budget study are used to test these hypotheses regarding short‐run income inequality.The policy observation is made that, while modernization of the commodity distribution system may provide a disincentive for sharing and a reduction in opportunities for female employment, investment in non‐service sectors may equalize the secular income distribution for a given migration cohort. Evidence of unskilled migrants moving from service to non‐service sector employment in response to increased labor demand is presented. This is accomplished by supplementing sample survey data with time series on aggregate employment by sector for K

ISSN:0034-6586    

DOI:10.1111/j.1475-4991.1974.tb00909.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1974

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Man may work from sun to sun, But woman's work is never done. Anon.It has become almost a cliché that measured growth in the U.S. is being overstated. The classic on the subject is by Mishan [5], who argues persuasively that the (uncounted) externalities from production in industrialized economies are overtaking the production which these economies are counting. But externalities are not the only problems in measuring economic activity and economic growth. Two other problems of equal importance, but more amenable to measurement, are the distinction between final and intermediate production, and the quantification of nonmarket productive behavior. In this paper, we concentrate on one aspect of the measurement of nonmarket behavior—the value of production at home by housewives.1Specifically, we will present estimates of the value of home based nonmarket production by housewives. These estimates will then be used to supplement various national product aggregates in order to calculate more accurate growth rates for the U.S. economy. We find that the value of nonmarket production by married women during the 1960's has averaged approximately thirty percent of the GNP and close to 40 percent of the national income. The inclusion of the nonmarket work of housewives in GNP would reduce the measured rate of growth of real GNP per potential worker by about ten percent, the exact amount depending on how the value of nonmarket work is estimated. Our estimates indicate a reduction in the absolute rate of growth of almost 0.25 perce

ISSN:0034-6586    

DOI:10.1111/j.1475-4991.1974.tb00910.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1974

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

This paper examines the wealth position of blacks relative to whites, on the basis of data in the Survey of Economic Opportunity. The analysis indicates that at the same levels of both income and wealth blacks consistently invest more in consumer durables, especially housing, than do whites. The paper then explores possible explanations for this finding, suggesting that these investment differences are not solely due to the income and wealth position of blacks, but may be due to a smaller set of investment opportunities institutionally fostered by discriminatory forces.

ISSN:0034-6586    

DOI:10.1111/j.1475-4991.1974.tb00911.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1974

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0034-6586    

DOI:10.1111/j.1475-4991.1974.tb00912.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1974

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0034-6586    

DOI:10.1111/j.1475-4991.1974.tb00913.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1974

数据来源: WILEY