摘要:

To know the size and development of the hidden or underground economy is important for policy making, mainly because the measures undertaken may be misdirected if they are based on biased official statistics. The hidden economy can be measured by considering indicators. The direct methods are based on voluntary surveys and on tax auditing and other compliance methods. The indirect estimation methods rely on the identification of residuals with respect to income and expenditures, as well as in the labor and money markets. The strengths and weaknesses of each of these measurement approaches are discussed and the resulting estimates of the size of the hidden economy are compared. A different approach to measurement is to look at the determinants leading to the existence and growth of the hidden economy. Finally, the method of “unobserved variables” allows the combination of the two approaches by simultaneously considering the determinants and indicators of the under‐ ground economy. The results show a considerable range of sizes for a given country and year. Though there is a broad range of size estimates, there is general agreement that the hidden economy's size has been growing for all countries over recent decades. Further progress in quantitative knowledge about the hidden economy requires the development of a theoretical model which analyses the interdependencies between the official private sector, the hidden economy, and the public s

ISSN:0034-6586    

DOI:10.1111/j.1475-4991.1984.tb00474.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1984

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Index number accuracy is affected by formula specification and sampling error. The authors argue that an index formula should be “ideal” and “exact” (with reference to the range of economically plausible aggregator functions) to be economically justified. These indices are invariant in the homothetic case, as well as in certain non‐homothetic scenarios. Empirically, based on foreign trade data for Egypt from 1885‐1961, the set of economically justified indices are virtually identical, supporting the theoretical argument that “instrumental error” or “formula variance” should be a negligible factor contributing to index number error. In a discussion of sampling error, on the other hand, the authors criticize earlier work and propose an upper and lower bound. Using the same data, these limits imply that sampling error may be a serious probl

ISSN:0034-6586    

DOI:10.1111/j.1475-4991.1984.tb00475.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1984

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Lack of a conceptual basis for measuring human capital investment in health has hampered efforts to expand national accounting systems to include human capital investment. This paper presents a conceptual basis for developing estimates of this health investment, an estimation methodology consistent with the conceptual basis, and preliminary estimates for the United States for 1952‐78.While much work remains to be done before comprehensive estimates of investment in health are achieved, it is clear that previous estimates based on answers to the question, “What improves health?” have included some inappropriate expenditures while excluding others that should be included.The conceptual basis presented here leads to a methodology for separating health care costs (not the costs of illness) into maintenance and gross investment. Gross investment can be further separated into net investment and the sum of damages and depreciation but empirical implementation of this step is not attempted

ISSN:0034-6586    

DOI:10.1111/j.1475-4991.1984.tb00476.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1984

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

The calculation of purchasing power parities and quantity comparisons for a given year provides interesting information about the relative importance of countries. However, it is necessary to make these estimates annually in order to enable users to apply these parities for international comparison of annual data expressed in national currency. The paper deals with the problems related to merging spatial comparisons and temporal volume and price movements for the countries of the European Community. For these countries full information was collected in 1975 and in 1980, whereas in the intermediate years some price data were collected and price indices at a detailed level have also been collected. First the theoretical problems of consistency between the spatial results and temporal indices are discussed. Because no immediate consistency can be obtained, several methods are proposed to achieve consistency, by estimating one unique set of spatial and temporal indices. The available information for the period 1975‐80 has been used in order to test the numerical differences between two sets of parities and price indices over time. Besides theoretical reasons for inconsistency, it is also necessary to take into account errors in the price observations or in the price indices. The results presented in the paper should be considered as provisional and further work will be undertaken to obtain better insights into the inconsistency between these sets of dat

ISSN:0034-6586    

DOI:10.1111/j.1475-4991.1984.tb00477.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1984

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

This paper describes the construction of an accounting matrix for the world economy in 1977, cast along similar lines to SNA National Accounts, but one in which trade flows replace inter‐industry flows as intermediate demand. The matrix distinguishes ten regions. Institutional accounts are presented for three of these, the European Community, North America and Japan. This matrix is used to provide the basis of a linear model in which average propensities to import and consume are replaced by estimated marginal propensities. Use is made of standard estimates of the income effects of terms of trade changes in order to distinguish substitution from income effects in the model, and a means is suggested for separating the full as well as the impact effects of a terms of trade change into income and substitution effects. The estimated import equations are used to derive estimates of regional growth rates compatible with external balance in each region. Multiplier matrices are calculated from the model showing regional interdependence of the world economy reflecting the pattern of trade which is identified in the marginal propensities to import.The effects of various aid policies are calculated using the model. It is shown that the cost of aid to any region is radically altered by taking into account the feedback effects of changes in demand. A policy of tied aid pursued by EEC, North America and Japan can actually lead to an improvement in Japan's balance of payments position. Finally the effects of movements in relative prices are illustrated by means of two example

ISSN:0034-6586    

DOI:10.1111/j.1475-4991.1984.tb00478.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1984

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0034-6586    

DOI:10.1111/j.1475-4991.1984.tb00479.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1984

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0034-6586    

DOI:10.1111/j.1475-4991.1984.tb00480.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1984

数据来源: WILEY