摘要:

AbstractInformation for forecasting databases is often initially under the control of individuals who have no compelling reason to contribute, and who face various significant costs if they do. Such discretionary databases are subject to public goods problems, and are likely to be undersupplied, even when all participants agree that the overall benefits outweigh the overall costs. This paper explores the implications of this incentive structure for the existence, completeness and accuracy of forecasting databases. It also offers some hypotheses as to when the difficulties will be more and less severe, and outlines some directions for possible remedial strategies.

ISSN:0277-6693    

DOI:10.1002/for.3980090102

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1990

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractThe predictive performance of a large‐scale structural econometric model (SEM) of the Italian economy the Prometeia model is compared in this paper with a vector autoregressive (VAR) model estimated for a selection of six main variables of interest. The paper concentrates on the quarterlyex‐anteforecasts of GDP growth rate and the annual forecasts of GDP growth and inflation rate, over the period 1980‐85. It concludes that no forecaster is systematically better than the other. In particular, the VAR model outperforms the SEM in short‐run forecasts, suggesting that, for the latter, more careful attention should be addressed to questions of dynamic specification. On the other hand, for longer intervals, the SEM forecasts are more accurate than the VAR forecasts, in that they can benefit from the judgemental interventions of the model users and the model can pick up the non‐linearities of the economy which cannot be captured by the VAR. Given the different kinds of information that can be extracted from the two approaches, it seems more reasonable to consider them as complementary rather than alternative tools for modelling and forecasting. Therefore, rather than attempting to establish the superiority of one type of model over the other, this kind of comparisons should be seen as a useful diagnostic tool for detecting types of model misspec

ISSN:0277-6693    

DOI:10.1002/for.3980090103

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1990

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractTests for SETAR‐type non‐linearity in time series have recently been proposed by Petruccelli and Davies (1986), W. S. Chan and Tong (1986), Tsay (1987), Luukkonenet al.(1988), Petruccelli (1987) and Moeanaddin and Tong (1988). In this paper we consider the relative performance of thes: te

ISSN:0277-6693    

DOI:10.1002/for.3980090104

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1990

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractCan business planning be improved if more attention is paid to underlying political cycles? This paper compares practitioner and researcher perspectives on this issue. While practioners stand to gain useful insights from a careful examination of past political cycles, these insights may be disconfirmed by rigorous tests carried out by researchers. In this paper we isolate and examine five hypotheses from the literature on the political‐economic cycl

ISSN:0277-6693    

DOI:10.1002/for.3980090105

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1990

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractA standard approach to the combination of probabilistic opinions involves taking a weighted linear average of the individuals distributions. This paper reviews some of the possible interpretations that have been proposed for these weights in the literature on expert use. Several paradigms for selecting weights are also considered. Special attention is devoted to the Bayesian mechanism used for updating expert weights in the face of new information. An asymptotic result is proved which highlights the importance of choosing the initial weights carefully.

ISSN:0277-6693    

DOI:10.1002/for.3980090106

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1990

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractSome theoretical results concerning the nature of the relationship between the scientific quality and economic value of imperfect weather forecasts are obtained. A prototype multistage decision‐making model is considered, involving only two possible actions and two possible states of weather. This particular form of model is motivated by a real‐world application known as the fruit‐frost problem. For an infinite‐horizon, discounted version of this model it is shown that economic value remains zero below a forecast quality threshold and then rises monotonically but nonlinearly above this threshold. In particular, the relative sensitivity of economic value to changes in the quality of forecasts increases as perfect information is approached. This curve is compared with quality/value relationships that have been obtained for other versions of the model; namely, a single‐stage model and a multistage, finite‐ho

ISSN:0277-6693    

DOI:10.1002/for.3980090107

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1990

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0277-6693    

DOI:10.1002/for.3980090101

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1990

数据来源: WILEY