摘要:

AbstractCareful forecasts, as accurate as possible, are central to the successful implementation of policy. There are fundamental reasons why policy makers cannot ‘play by ear’, adjusting policy quickly to each unexpected deviation in economic outcomes. Specific incidents are described where economic policy went awry because of faulty forecasts. The policy process is described in detail to show precisely where the forecast enters. Forecasting as a validation tool for establishing credibility in policy formation is analysed and discussed. Some estimated measure of forecast accuracy is presented, together with commentary on the necessary degrees of precision for successful implementation of pol

ISSN:0277-6693    

DOI:10.1002/for.3980030102

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1984

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractThis paper reports on the accuracy of quarterly multiperiod predictions of inflation, real growth, unemployment and percentage changes in nominal GNP and two of its more volatile components. The survey data are highly differentiated; they cover 79 professional forecasters (mostly economists, analysts and corporate executives). Combining corresponding predictions from different sources can result in significant gains; thus the group mean forecasts are on the average over time more accurate than most of the corresponding sets of individual forecasts. But there is also a moderate degree of consistency in the relative performance of a sufficient number of the survey members, as evidenced in positive rank correlations among ratios of the individual to group root mean square errors.

ISSN:0277-6693    

DOI:10.1002/for.3980030103

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1984

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractThis article presents the results of a survey to determine the degree of familiarity and usage, accuracy obtained, and evaluation of different forecasting techniques. It was found that regression analysis, subjective techniques, exponential smoothing, and moving average were well known and used for specific situations. Accuracy was relatively high for aggregate short range forecasts, but decreased for longer range and product level forecasts.

ISSN:0277-6693    

DOI:10.1002/for.3980030104

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1984

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractThe paper summarizes results of a mail survey of the use of formal forecasting techniques in British manufacturing companies. It appraises the state of awareness of particular techniques and the extent to which they are used in various functional applications. The extent to which the forecasts generated by the techniques influence company action is assessed; and the reasons for the non‐use of particular techniques examined. The paper concludes that although an increasing number of companies appreciate the importance of forecasting, the methods used are predominantly naïve and few companies are taking steps to improve the situation through using alternative techniques or through computerizing established techniqu

ISSN:0277-6693    

DOI:10.1002/for.3980030105

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1984

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractThe use of forecasting models can help managers make better decisions, a fact that motivates this study. Findings from research on the implementation of operations research/management science are generalized to include forecasting models. The similarity between forecasting and other models allows conclusions to be drawn about managing forecasting model implementation: these include better management support, closer links to management performance, improved user–preparer relationships, more goal congruence, minimized perception of change and an appropriate configuration of the forecasting system to user needs, style, resources and environmen

ISSN:0277-6693    

DOI:10.1002/for.3980030106

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1984

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractIn this paper we discuss procedures for overcoming some of the problems involved in fitting autoregressive integrated moving average forecasting models to time series data, when the possibility of incorporating an instantaneous power transformation of the data into the analysis is contemplated. The procedures are illustrated using series of quarterly observations on corporate earnings per share.

ISSN:0277-6693    

DOI:10.1002/for.3980030107

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1984

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractThe objectives of this paper are: first, to show empirically the relevance of using adaptive estimation techniques over more traditional estimation approaches when economic systems are believed to be structurally unstable over time; and secondly, to compare in an empirical framework two adaptive estimation techniques: Kalman filtering and the Carbone–Longini filter. For that purpose, an econometric model for the U.S. pulp and paper market is examined under the assumption of structural instability and, hence, constitutes the basis for comparing forecasting performances and estimation accuracy achieved by each technique. A version of Kalman filtering, modified in line with the basic idea of ‘tracking’ characterizing the Carbone–Longini filter, is also presented and applied. The analysis of the results shows that it may be worth using adapative estimation methods to estimate structurally unstable models, even if there is no prior knowledge about the patterns of variation of the parameters. Also, it shows the Carbone–Longini filter and Kalman filtering as being complementary estimation techniques. An estimation/forecasting methodology involving a sequential application mode of these two techniques is

ISSN:0277-6693    

DOI:10.1002/for.3980030108

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1984

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractIt is shown that the traditional choice for the initial smoothed statistics in general exponential smoothing leads to the same forecasts as the equivalent ARIMA model, provided that one uses zero starting values for the initial shocks. In addition, an initialization which uses ‘backforecasts’ as initial smoothed statistics is considered, and its relationship to unconditional least squares is explo

ISSN:0277-6693    

DOI:10.1002/for.3980030109

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1984

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

AbstractThe authors demonstrate that indexing a time series with an ARMA representation using the Consumer Price Index does not materially alter the ARMA form of the model. They further demonstrate that the forecasting error of the indexed series and of the product of the forecasts of the index and the time series are, for practical purpose, the same. Simulation results are reported for five model classes.

ISSN:0277-6693    

DOI:10.1002/for.3980030110

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1984

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0277-6693    

DOI:10.1002/for.3980030111

出版商:John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.    

年代:1984

数据来源: WILEY