ISSN:1074-3529    

DOI:10.1111/j.1465-7287.1992.tb00208.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1992

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Over the next century, the impact of the AIDS epidemic on the supply of and returns to factors of production may be significant. Public policies might offset some of the long run impacts, especially if initiated early in the epidemic. History suggests the types of economic effects that can occur in the long run and the limits of public policies' effectiveness in controlling diseases of this type. The models developed here to show possible long run time paths for the epidemic also imply a long‐run equilibrium, a concept not appreciated in most disciplines. Because data defciencies make long run numerical forecasting highly controversial, this paper uses history and modeling to emphasize qualitative understanding of the epidemi

ISSN:1074-3529    

DOI:10.1111/j.1465-7287.1992.tb00209.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1992

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Economists' debate over the public utility “regulatory contract” has increasingly focused on three issues created by sunk costs: (i) Protection of sunk capital, (ii) Division of “windfalls” in a world of uncertainty, and (Hi) Mechanisms to control the regulator who administers long‐term agreements. This article uses these three criteria to evaluate regulatory alternatives in the natural gas industry. Facing similar problems under criteria 1 and 2 are: government regulation of pipelines as integrated gas merchants, government regulation of pipelines as gas transporters, and private regulation through competitive contracting. Private contracting, however, offers superior control over the contract administrator, because it removes the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission's monopoly on contract admin

ISSN:1074-3529    

DOI:10.1111/j.1465-7287.1992.tb00210.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1992

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Policymakers are proposing child support reform as a way of reducing “welfare dependency” and countering the “feminization of poverty” while increasing the well‐being of children living in single‐parent households. The federal government and some states have begun to change laws regarding establishment of child support awards and collection of payments. The 1988 Family Support Act mandates routine income withholding of child support payments—i.e., collecting child support directly from the payer's paycheck. This article assesses the effects on post‐divorce income by using data from a demonstration of routine withholding in ten Wisconsin counties. Unfortunately, these data conclude that routine income withholding has little effect on post‐divorce income, at least in the year following divorce. The authors suggest three requirements for substantially increasing post‐divorce income, as well as child support: (i) More family court cases must establish awards, (ii) The amount of those awards must be greater. (Hi) The collection rate for those who have

ISSN:1074-3529    

DOI:10.1111/j.1465-7287.1992.tb00211.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1992

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

This paper examines the pattern of corporate leverage in the United States during the 1980s. Firms in other countries increased their debt during this period. However, the United States was the only major industrialized country in which firms experienced increases in both leverage and interest burden. Previous studies analyzing the distribution of corporate debt across sectors in the United States concluded that to the extent a pattern is discernible, highly indebted firms are concentrated in the stable sectors. This study confirms this earlier finding but shows that the U.S. firms that have been increasing their leverage most rapidly have been concentrated in cyclical sectors.

ISSN:1074-3529    

DOI:10.1111/j.1465-7287.1992.tb00212.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1992

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

The dollar's strength during the 1980s appears to many—particularly as reported in the financial press—to have been directly linked to the decade's large budget deficits and the subsequent increase in the stock of federal debt outstanding. The popular argument is that the budget deficit and the growth of federal government credit market demand caused U.S. interest rates to rise over that period, inducing large capital inflows from abroad to finance the deficit. According to the argument, the capital inflows caused the dollar to appreciate. Despite the argument's popularity, the empirical literature does not strongly support it. Evidence on the relationship between the federal deficit and the dollar is at best mixed.This article reconsiders the effects of federal budget deficits on the exchange rate. The analysis involves estimating a vector autoregressive (VAR) model of exchange rates that includes monetary, fiscal, and price level variables. Within the VAR framework, impulse analysis traces the dynamic response of exchange rates to various budget deficit measures.The analysis finds that deficits do not directly Granger cause exchange rates, but it also finds evidence of an indirect effect working through the money supply and price level. Moreover, the analysis reveals some evidence that foreign exchange markets are forward looking and react to expected budget deficits. The innovations accounting and impulse analysis also suggest a forward‐looking dynamic relationship between deficits and exchange rates, but the relationship is sensitive to the ordering of the vari

ISSN:1074-3529    

DOI:10.1111/j.1465-7287.1992.tb00213.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1992

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

The war on drugs has placed new pressures on the criminal justice system. In recent years, arrests for drug violations have been growing more rapidly than arrests for the FBI index crimes in both the United States as a whole and California. By the year 1988, in California, the ratio of adult felony drug arrests to adult felony arrests for all seven major offenses in the FBI index had grown to 0.65.The analysis in this article concerns the impact that the war on crime and the war on drugs has had on the corrections system in California. Part of this analysis is descriptive. It details the rising proportion of felons newly entering prison after drug law convictions. In addition to swelling the volume of prisoners and changing their composition by offense, the war on drugs has changed the nature of flows between felons on parole and felons in prison. By 1988, for the first time, the number of felons returned to prison for parole violation exceeded the number of felons newly entering prison after court convictions. The analysis develops how the behavior of parole officers and the special significance of drug offenders contribute to this phenomenon. The result has been to circulate more felons between parole and prison, thus reducing discharges as a proportion of total felons on parole and unnecessarily increasing the stock of prisoners.

ISSN:1074-3529    

DOI:10.1111/j.1465-7287.1992.tb00214.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1992

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:1074-3529    

DOI:10.1111/j.1465-7287.1992.tb00215.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1992

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:1074-3529    

DOI:10.1111/j.1465-7287.1992.tb00216.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1992

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

In a 1989 Contemporary Policy Issues article Miller and Russek published findings of a causal relation between the fiscal deficit and the trade deficit. However, they found no overwhelming support for reverse causation between the twin deficits. The authors of the analysis here gathered annual data on U.S. federal budget deficits and net exports for 1950–1988 and deflated the nominal values by the GDP deflators to examine the causal relation based on real values. They made a distinction between structural and actual budget deficits. Instead of an arbitrary choice of lag structure, they used Hsiao (1979, 1981) minimum final prediction error criterion to determine the optimum lag lengths of the explanatory variables. The analysis reveals a unidirectional causal relation running from structural budget deficits to net exports, confirming some of Miller and Russek's findings. Contrary to Miller and Russek's conclusions, however, findings here indicate a bi‐directional causal relation between actual budget deficits and net exports. These findings suggest important policy implicati

ISSN:1074-3529    

DOI:10.1111/j.1465-7287.1992.tb00217.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1992

数据来源: WILEY