ISSN:1074-3529    

DOI:10.1111/j.1465-7287.1991.tb00862.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1991

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

The recent interstate bank merger phenomenon has received little attention in the literature. Specifically, existing studies fail to explain sufficiently the variation of premiums paid and fail to investigate adequately the bank merger wave in terms of its interstate banking context.This study employs models with substantial overall explanatory levels. The interstate banking context proves to be very significant. First, the study considers and finds significant the effective date of a state's interstate statute in relation to a deal's announcement date. This contrasts sharply with other studies. Second, the study uses and also finds significant a binary variable distinguishing intrastate deals from interstate deals. The premiums paid for interstate market entry, on average, exceeded those paid for intrastate transactions. Third, including regional binary variables reveals a pattern of variation in pricing throughout the country. The Southeast, the study's base of comparison, exhibited the highest premium level.Other significant determinants of premiums paid include profitability as measured by returns on equity, growth proxied by state deposit growth and future expected population growth, and charge‐offs to total loans as an indicator of loan qualit

ISSN:1074-3529    

DOI:10.1111/j.1465-7287.1991.tb00309.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1991

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

The biggest financial disaster in modern history struck the savings and loan industry during the 1980s. This paper argues that the unifying cause of this debacle was the way in which the federal deposit insurance system is structured. The fundamental cause was not fraud and deregulation, as is commonly argued. The government not only permitted reportedly insolvent institutions to continue to operate, it permitted many such institutions to grow by offering relatively high rates on their deposits. Unfortunately, the Financial Institutions Reform, Recovery, and Enforcement Act (FIRREA) of 1989 may not prevent a similar situation from ever recurring. Therefore, one must understand exactly what happened, what the FIRREA does and does not do, and the proposals for reforming the entire structure of the federal deposit insurance system.

ISSN:1074-3529    

DOI:10.1111/j.1465-7287.1991.tb00310.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1991

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

This study asks whether the Federal Reserve has actively made monetary policy so as to aid the president's reelection. Using Shiller's smoothness “prior” to estimate the shape of cycles, the study finds a political business cycle in unemployment and a preelection increase in growth of the money supply. But the timing of these two cycles is inconsistent. Furthermore, little evidence exists of a cycle in the instruments of monetary policy. Thus, the Fed is not actively creating a political business cycle. Apparently, movements in real money that are not caused—but are not offset—by the Fed are an important cause of the political business cycle.Elections influence Fed behavior. Monetary tightness occurs early in a presidential term, before reelection incentives become critical. This is due to the Fed's political weakness. Thus, the Fed's independence only partly insulates it from electoral pr

ISSN:1074-3529    

DOI:10.1111/j.1465-7287.1991.tb00311.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1991

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

This paper describes how the government has largely ignored economics in its recent attempts to deal with the deterioration of federally insured depository institutions. The most recent example was the Financial Institutions Recovery, Reform, and Enforcement Act (FIRREA) of 1989. Well documented and widely distributed studies have pointed out the decline of commercial banks. However, the FIRREA completely ignored commercial banks. The paper discusses the pervasive regulatory laxity and forbearance that existed toward banks during the 1980s despite the consequences of similar regulatory behavior toward savings and loans. The paper also shows how the FIRREA's major provisions regarding savings and loans ignore economic analyses. The paper discusses the implications of economic analysis for more appropriate government responses to the continuing deterioration of depositories.

ISSN:1074-3529    

DOI:10.1111/j.1465-7287.1991.tb00312.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1991

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

One can easily identify four general models of political business cycles: office‐motivated models (both forward and backward looking) and partisan models (again, both forward and backward looking). Each model makes different assumptions about the direction and timing of causal links between the economy and polity. This paper uses Granger causality tests to investigate the causal links between presidential popularity and different measures of aggregate economic performance and aggregate economic policy. The paper's aim is to investigate whether any existing theories receive substantive support and, if not, to suggest the properties that any new theories should display. The results indicate no overwhelming support for any existing theories, though partisan models receive more support than do office‐motivated models. The data appear to be most consistent with Ellis and Thoma's reputational partisan mo

ISSN:1074-3529    

DOI:10.1111/j.1465-7287.1991.tb00313.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1991

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Projections from many macroeconometric models have suggested that the improving trend in U.S. external balance since 1987 would peter out by the end of 1990. Because the 1980s decade was a turbulent period in the international environment, one might question the reliability of these projections since the economic relationships underlying the models could have changed. This review finds insufficient evidence of structural change or of sufficiently important omitted variables to justify seriously questioning the projections. However, this study also considers model and parameter uncertainty and concludes that continued improvement in U.S. external balance is within the realm of statistical probability—but, then, so is substantial worsenin

ISSN:1074-3529    

DOI:10.1111/j.1465-7287.1991.tb00314.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1991

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

A major “bootstraps” challenge lies ahead for Latin America: finding enough savings capacity at home to finance needed increases in investment during the 1990s. The banking system throughout the region cannot carry out its role in this process, however, due to a ruinous process of internal debt accumulation and corporate bankruptcy—the domestic analog of the external debt crisis of the 1980s.This paper briefly reviews recent financial liberalization experiences in Latin America. It identifies three factors as contributing to the undermining of the banking system and the failure of liberalization in the region: (i) foreign exchange risks that the banking system has assumed, (ii) unsound lending and borrowing practices, and (Hi) inadequate regulatory and supervisory frameworks. A case study of Chile illustrates the dynamics of frustrated reform and privatization in the financial markets.The paper concludes that Latin America has no real choice but to pursue liberalization and to rely more on the private sector in the financial markets. The path to deeper financial markets is extremely complex, however, and Latin America must continue seeking the proper balance between state sector supervision and intervention and an increased role for the private sector. An agenda for research points to some thorny issues awaiting empirical investig

ISSN:1074-3529    

DOI:10.1111/j.1465-7287.1991.tb00315.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1991

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

This study is unique in several respects. First, it reviews the characteristics of the top 10 industries targeted for foreign direct investment (FDI) activity in the United States between 1979 and 1987. It analyzes both overall FDI activity and new plant and expansion FDI activity. The study summarizes and tests alternative hypotheses regarding the determinants of FDI in the United States by all countries, by the United Kingdom, by the European Community, by Japan, and by Canada.Large and growing product markets in an expanding economy have attracted FDI in the United States. Exchange rate movements have prompted opportunistic decisions to invest in U.S. production facilities. Investors' superior management skills appear to have prompted takeovers, while efforts to realize technological advantages of new physical capital and of relatively large operating plants have fostered plant and expansion investments.Evidence exists that a desire to circumvent current—but not potential—trade restrictions has motivated foreign direct investment. FDI activities are not associated with concentrated or heavily unionized industries. Highly protected industries have attracted heavier equity FDI by Japan and heavier new plant FDI by all sources and Canada. No evidence exists that FDI in the United States by Japan or anyone else is targeted to undercut union‐dominated firms or to arrest the spread of protectionist trade pol

ISSN:1074-3529    

DOI:10.1111/j.1465-7287.1991.tb00316.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1991

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Recent history has lent casual support to three popular theories about U.S. oil demand: (i) U.S. oil consumption is very insensitive to changing oil prices, (ii) non‐price conservation has reduced U.S. oil demand, and (Hi) U.S. oil consumption falls more when oil prices rise than it rises when oil prices fall. Together, these theories suggest that one could hold oil consumption constant without much economic sacrifice. The authors' econometric evidence does not support these theories. This evidence indicates that U.S. oil consumption is fairly responsive to price changes over the long run, but with a considerable lag. Sharp oil price increases—or an equivalent policy action—would be needed to hold oil consumption constant during the

ISSN:1074-3529    

DOI:10.1111/j.1465-7287.1991.tb00317.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1991

数据来源: WILEY