摘要:

This paper analyzes countertrade as a special case of a customs union in which the countertrade agreement gives rise (as in customs union theory) to both trade‐creating and trade‐diverting effects. The net effects on welfare are ambiguous. A detailed case study from Egypt and brief examples from other countries illustrate the relevance of this interpretat

ISSN:1074-3529    

DOI:10.1111/j.1465-7287.1994.tb00407.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1994

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

This study empirically estimates and evaluates the economic benefits of the U.S. and Canadian Free Trade Agreement (FTA). Most past studies rely on aggregate data. The analysis here emphasizes the trade effects of removing tariff and nontariff barriers on each commodity group classified by the Standard International Trade Classification. Estimating the amount of trade expansion under FTA for both countries involves using the import demand elasticities from a dynamic demand model. Results show that U.S. imports from Canada are more sensitive to domestic, import, and world prices than are Canadian imports from the United States. U.S. imports from Canada would increase roughly £3.257 billion compared to the £2.432 billion increase for Canadian imports from the United State

ISSN:1074-3529    

DOI:10.1111/j.1465-7287.1994.tb00408.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1994

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Antitrust concern about keiretsu shareholding ties is misplaced and at odds with economic reasoning and with empirical investigation. Holding stock in a trading partner slants the bargaining over product market variables in favor of the trading partner. Divesting such a stock interest accomplishes the reverse. The firm holding shares in a trading partner can credibly threaten to divest should the trading partner behave opportunistically. Divesting withdraws the bargaining advantage that the equity position had conferred. Therefore, a firm may establish a partial equity position in a trading partner to deter opportunism. Additionally, Japanese banks' shareholding in the companies to which they lend resolves agency problems and lowers borrowing costs. Organizing firms into cross‐shareholding groups magnifies these favorable effects by assuring that direct shareholding by banks gives rise to indirect shareholding as well. Keiretsu shareholding ties impede U.S. exports to Japan because they lower the keiretsu members' costs of transacting with one another and not because they raise rivals' cost

ISSN:1074-3529    

DOI:10.1111/j.1465-7287.1994.tb00409.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1994

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Economists have extensively analyzed the interactions between economic‐demographic factors and saving. Fertility rates and the dependency ratio have received considerable attention, but the effect of life expectancy improvements have not been analyzed explicitly. This paper provides an added dimension to the existing literature by empirically examining the role of life expectancy as a determinant of saving. Recent data demonstrate that life expectancy is a statistically significant and quantitatively important factor affecting less developed countries' saving performance. One must consider human capital investments when assessing population growth's impact on saving. The analysis here is one of few that incorporate human capital in defining saving. The overall results are sensitive to level of development and regional diversit

ISSN:1074-3529    

DOI:10.1111/j.1465-7287.1994.tb00410.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1994

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

This paper reports on a program that begun in 1985 to research political and private pressures on monetary policy. The program developed a number of measures of outside pressures on monetary policy, identified the time periods and circumstances under which the Federal Reserve was responsive to these measures, and indicated how different classes of Fed officials responded to certain of these pressures. Initial findings appear in a number of journal articles from 1987 to 1992. Havrilesky (1993) extends and refines these findings by employing new and larger data sets. Subsequent articles amplify the findings by estimating monetary policy reaction functions that specifically introduce outside influences together with state‐of‐the‐economy measures as explanatory vari

ISSN:1074-3529    

DOI:10.1111/j.1465-7287.1994.tb00411.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1994

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

This paper assesses the real‐time performance of the Commerce Department's composite index of leading indicators. The authors find that the composite leading index has failed to provide reliable advance warning of cyclical turning points. One reason for this failure is that the leading index's transition from expansion to contraction generally is not very sharp. Consequently, discerning real‐time cyclical peaks in the index is difficult. Transitions from contraction to expansion on average are sharp. However, cyclical troughs in the leading index often precede cyclical troughs in the economy by only a few months. Thus, even timely recognition of troughs in the leading index fails to provide advance warning of turnarounds in the general level of economic activ

ISSN:1074-3529    

DOI:10.1111/j.1465-7287.1994.tb00412.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1994

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Trade data from 1977 and 1985 suggest that, on average, service industries with the greatest trade‐related employment gains tend to be more skill‐intensive and that such industries employ relatively more women and minorities than do service industries experiencing the least trade‐related employment gains. Three important qualifiers temper these findings: (i) Compared to whites, minorities—particularly blacks—have lower probability of increased employment in trade‐enhanced service industries. (ii) Unlike whites or Hispanics, skilled black workers are more likely to be employed in service industries experiencing the least trade‐related employment gains. (iii) On an industry by industry basis, no consistent relationship appears to exist between skill intensity and level of trade‐related employment. The latter finding supports the view that service industry comparative advantage is in

ISSN:1074-3529    

DOI:10.1111/j.1465-7287.1994.tb00413.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1994

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

This paper analyzes new data on job qualifications and training. Between 1983 and 1991, the share of workers reporting skill‐improvement training on their jobs increased as did the wage premium for this training. Even in 1991, however, 58 percent of all workers reported no training on their jobs, and 44 percent reported needing no special qualifications to obtain their jobs. Training rates are especially low for young and less‐educated workers. Skill demands appear to have shifted toward general and cognitive skills—best taught in formal training programs and schools—and away from specific and manual skills acquired through informal on‐the‐j

ISSN:1074-3529    

DOI:10.1111/j.1465-7287.1994.tb00414.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1994

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

A welfare reform demonstration program designed to reduce Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) recidivism through increased employment and training services resulted in significantly higher short‐term caseload growth. Demonstration sites attracted proportionally more households onto assistance early in the demonstration than did comparison sites. These entrants tended to have more extensive previous employment histories. This result suggests that the demonstration attracted individuals who previously qualified for AFDC but did not apply for benefits and/or individuals who reduced their employment to qualify for AFDC. Exits from AFDC also were delayed under the demonstration, suggesting that the more intensive services provided through the demonstration required more time to complete. Finally, certain groups—nonwhites and those with language problems, for example—apparently avoided the demonstration by not migrating into demonstration sites or by migrating out of demonstration sites. These results have important implications for the likely costs of state welfare reform efforts under the Family Support Act of

ISSN:1074-3529    

DOI:10.1111/j.1465-7287.1994.tb00415.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1994

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

This paper examines the link between passage of the Plant Variety Protection Act (PVPA), private R&D, public R&D, and genetic diversity in farmers' fields. PVPA did have a limited positive impact on private wheat breeding but did not lead to a decrease in public wheat research. Instead, public wheat research increased rapidly after PVPA passed. The trends in wheat diversity over time for the entire United States suggest that private research has undergone minor increases in diversity. Regression analysis of genetic diversity in Kansas, Nebraska, and Montana indicates that public sector research has increased diversity in farmers' wheat fields and that PVPA has had a small positive impact on diversity.

ISSN:1074-3529    

DOI:10.1111/j.1465-7287.1994.tb00416.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1994

数据来源: WILEY