ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1983.tb00098.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1983

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1983.tb00099.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1983

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1983.tb00100.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1983

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1983.tb00101.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1983

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Discussions of technological risks and their management by corporations and society are ubiquitous and often acrimonious. Equally ubiquitous are several important misconceptions of key risk questions. This paper (i) argues that serious epistemological confusion pervades much of the scientific basis for risk assessment, especially confusion among objective, subjective, and perceived risk, and between facts and ethical values; and (ii) asserts that this confusion combines with psychological aspects of risk perception to produce a confused risk debate, a societal management of risks often based on diffuse or contradictory objectives, and consequently mismanagement of resource allocation to risk reduction.

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1983.tb00102.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1983

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

The U.S. Office of Science and Technology Policy describes toxic substance regulation as composed of two stages. Stage I (facts) uses empirical data and scientific judgment to characterize human exposure and risk. Stage II (values) uses social and political judgment to decide regulatory action based on significance of the risk, benefits of the agent, and costs of its control. This paper argues that such a view represents an unrealistic and unattainable goal. We present examples showing how values enter virtually every part of risk analysis, and we review work on the vagaries in human judgment concerning both facts and values. These issues indicate that U.S. regulatory policy needs reconsideration.

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1983.tb00103.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1983

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

In this paper we propose a framework for conducting a decision analysis for a societal problem such as earthquake safety. The application deals with the formulation and evaluation of alternative policies for the seismic safety problem faced by the city of Los Angeles with regard to its old masonry buildings. A social decision analysis compares the costs and benefits of the alternative policies from the viewpoints of the impacted constituents. The emphasis is on identifying acceptable policy that considers the interests of the impacted constituents and provides incentives for their cooperation. Alternatives ranging from strict regulation to free market are examined. In order to evaluate the trade‐offs between additional cost and savings in lives, a direct willingness‐to‐pay and an economic approach, based on property value differential, are used. Recommendations range from strict regulation for the residential and critical buildings (schools, hospitals, fire stations, etc.) to simply informing the occupants (in the case of commercial and industrial buildings) of the risks inv

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1983.tb00104.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1983

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

In this paper we extend the work reported in prior studies. The conclusion drawn from the aggregate of those studies was that the limitation on liability imposed by the Price–Anderson Act for a catastrophic accident at a nuclear power plant ($560 million) is comparable to de facto limitations on recovery following catastrophic events in many other industries. The analysis in those reports was at a high level of abstraction, comparing almost exclusively the potential loss from high consequence accidents with the current assets of major firms in relevant industries. We found that potential loss exceeded asset

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1983.tb00105.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1983

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Measures to tighten homes to conserve energy, as are being encouraged and subsidized by federal and state governments, may reduce air infiltration by 20% or more. Standard prudent risk‐assessment methodologies predict that, due to increased levels of indoor radon caused by this reduction in ventilation, the added lifetime lung cancer risk to members of the public is of order 200/million people exposed. In situations where the radon source term is unusually high, or extreme reductions in ventilation are made, the added risk can be more than an order of magnitude greater. While these imputed risks are far outside the range that is normally tolerated, no systematic efforts are in progress to mitigate or limit the risk in any way. Furthermore, efforts to determine better the variations in radon source term and the health effects of indoor radon are being deemphasized. The technical background is presented in some detail, and implications with regard to management of risks to the public are discusse

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1983.tb00106.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1983

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Book Reviewed in this article:Risk Analysis of Six Potentially Hazardous Industrial Objects in the Rijnmond Area, A Pilot Study

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1983.tb00107.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1983

数据来源: WILEY