ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1995.tb00085.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1995

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1995.tb00086.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1995

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1995.tb00087.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1995

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

The grounds for official policy claims that environmental tobacco smoke is a major health risk remain speculative. In scientific terms, the evidence is compatible with either a slight increase or a decrease of risks, but is impotent to certify either conclusion. Official advocacy of unproven hypotheses presented as valid scientific conclusions raises serious ethical questions, and threatens the credibility of risk assessment as a legitimate policy instrument.

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1995.tb00088.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1995

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Research and experience have shown that it can be difficult to get citizens to pay attention to risk messages and preparedness information in the absence of an actual emergency. As the use computerized systems that alert the public to hazards by automatically ringing their home phones increases, we thought it important to ask if tests of these “call down” systems can also be used to convey preemergency information. We worked with a local government to add instructions on how to shelter‐in‐place to the message on a routine test of a call down system. We then surveyed a test group and a control group before and after the test call and a second control group on after the call. The results indicate that the test call raised awareness of the emergency notification system without generating undue concern about the possibility of a chemical accident. Those who received the test call demonstrated significant improvements in their knowledge of how to shelter‐in‐place while no such improvement was observed in those who did not get the call. While the nature of the sample used in this study limits generalizability, we feel this outcome is positive enough to warrant further exploration of this method of disseminating risk information and preparedness i

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1995.tb00089.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1995

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Developmental anomalies induced by toxic chemicals may be identified using laboratory experiments with rats, mice or rabbits. Multinomial responses of fetuses from the same mother are often positively correlated, resulting in overdispersion relative to multinomial variation. In this article, a simple data transformation based on the concept of generalized design effects due to Rao‐Scott is proposed for dose‐response modeling of developmental toxicity. After scaling the original multinomial data using the average design effect, standard methods for analysis of uncorrected multinomial data can be applied. Benchmark doses derived using this approach are comparable to those obtained using generalized estimating equations with an extended Dirichlet‐trinomial covariance function to describe the dispersion of the original data. This empirical agreement, coupled with a large sample theoretical justification of the Rao‐Scott transformation, confirms the applicability of the statistical methods proposed in this article for developmental toxicity risk ass

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1995.tb00090.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1995

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

A unified approach for calculating the core melt frequency of a specific reactor caused by both internal and external accident initiators is demonstrated. Two classes of internal initiators are examined: transients, of which turbine trip is the chosen example, and loss‐of‐coolant events of various sizes. The concepts of hazard and fragility analysis first proposed for seismic risk analysis are linked to the frequencies of internal initiating events, and to the plant response as a function of the event intensity. Uncertainties are propagated using discrete probability distribution (DPD) arithmetic. Advantages of this approach include mathematical and conceptual consistency, and an improved uncertainty analysis, which are important considerations if risk studies are to be utilized in decision‐making based on quantitative safety

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1995.tb00091.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1995

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

We investigate fair processes for societal decisions that involve different risks and benefits to different groups. A fair decision‐making process is particularly important for decisions such as siting hazardous facilities. We experimentally evaluate the impact of alternative decision processes on the final choice of hypothetical facility sites and the resulting benefit and risk distribution to groups. The experimental task required choice among many alternative sites for a hazardous facility. Sites differ by the distribution of risks and benefits to each of two communities, and in the attractiveness of the sites to each community. Subjects were divided into three groups: individuals who judged the best site in the role of arbitrators, pairs of negotiators with one person representing each of the two communities, and trios who identified the best site in the role of a siting jury. We found the choices of negotiating and siting jury groups tended to emphasize the communities’preferences compared to the individual arbitrators who tended to focus on balancing the distribution of risks and benefits. Also, undergraduate psychology students, regardless of the dispute resolution mechanism, tended to display more emphasis on the risks and benefits, and graduate business students tended to focus more on the communities’prefer

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1995.tb00092.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1995

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Recent legislative and regulatory activities at the federal level have focused attention on the highway routing of hazardous materials. The question is whether routes that minimize the risk of release accidents (i.e., the expected number of persons impacted by releases of hazardous materials) should be used in lieu of the routes that have the lowest operating costs. This policy issue is addressed for interstate shipments by using a national network model to determine the practical route and minimum risk route between each of 100 different origin‐destination pairs (state capitals). The resulting cost‐risk tradeoffs are then used to estimate the average cost of rerouting per fatality averted, the value of which turns out to be within the range of values for a number of familiar existing regulati

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1995.tb00093.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1995

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Despite much scientific progress over many decades, the nature of global climate change remains highly uncertain, and the possibility of global climate catastrophe is one of the main concerns in public debates about global climate change. In this paper, we present a model which incorporates the risk of climate catastrophe in an analysis of greenhouse gas abatement strategy. In this model, the timing and severity of climate catastrophe are treated probabilistically. The impacts of key uncertainties on optimal policy are analyzed, and the expected values of additional information that reduces the uncertainty associated with the world economy, carbon cycle, climate change, and climate damage are estimated.

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1995.tb00094.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1995

数据来源: WILEY