ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1985.tb00144.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1985

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1985.tb00145.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1985

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1985.tb00146.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1985

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Relatively high doses of chemicals generally are employed in animal bioassays to detect potential carcinogens with relatively small numbers of animals. The problem investigated here is the development of experimental designs which are effective for high to low dose extrapolation for tumor incidence as well as for screening (detecting) carcinogens. Several experimental designs are compared over a wide range of different dose response curves. Linear extrapolation is used below the experimental data range to establish an upper bound on carcinogenic risk at low doses. The goal is to find experimental designs which minimize the upper bound on low dose risk estimates (i.e., maximize the allowable dose for a given level of risk). The maximum tolerated dose (MTD) is employed for screening purposes. Among the designs investigated, experiments with doses at the MTD, 1/2 MTD, 1/4 MTD, and controls generally provide relatively good data for low dose extrapolation with relatively good power for detecting carcinogens. For this design, equal numbers of animals per dose level perform as well as unequal allocations.

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1985.tb00147.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1985

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Ideas from a USA‐FRG conference on risk management are presented. In general, the difficulties confronted by risk management authorities in the two countries are similar, from discovering important risks at an early stage to setting acceptable goals. Government regulation is overburdened and somewhat inefficient in both countries, leading to greater search for alternatives. The many differences in approach between the two countries can inform both. German risk management is done largely through negotiations among the affected parties; when this does not resolve a dispute, a specialized administrative court takes charge. In both countries nonregulatory methods of managing risk should be enhanced and given a larger role. A matrix of risk management method versus criteria proved stimulating in comparing and ranking approaches. The conceptual differences between managing discrete events (auto crashes, boiler explosions, etc.) and chronic exposures have not been appreciated. Although uncertainty and probability are involved in both, there are qualitative differences in both analysis and management. Public perceptions of risk and the role these should play have been characterized by “objectivist” and “subjectivist” positions. In the former view, risks are subject to analysis, are calculable, and the public must be educated to accept the conclusions of experts. In the latter view what people perceive is what is most important, both psychologically and politically, and the risk experts must understand public fears and desires. These are important opportunities for cross cultura

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1985.tb00148.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1985

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Previously reported observed data on risky everyday driving are brought together and reanalyzed in order to focus on the relation between risky driving and the size of the car being driven, as indicated by car mass. The measures of risky driving include separation between vehicles in heavy freeway traffic and speed on a two lane road. Observed seat belt use provides a third measure of driver risk. Confounding effects arising from the observed association between car mass and driver age are taken into account by segmenting the data into three driver age groups. Driver risk taking is found to increase with increasing car mass for each of these three aspects of everyday driving. The implications of these results with respect to driver fatality rates are discussed in terms of a simple model relating observed risky driving to the likelihood of involvement in a severe crash.

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1985.tb00149.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1985

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

A methodology to quantify the risk from fires in nuclear power plants is described. This methodology combines engineering judgment, statistical evidence, fire phenomenology, and plant system analysis. It can be divided into two major parts: (1) fire scenario identification and quantification, and (2) analysis of the impact on plant safety. This article primarily concentrates on the first part. Statistical analysis of fire occurrence data is used to establish the likelihood of ignition. The temporal behaviors of the two competing phenomena, fire propagation and fire detection and suppression, are studied and their characteristic times are compared. Severity measures are used to further specialize the frequency of the fire scenario. The methodology is applied to a switchgear room of a nuclear power plant.

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1985.tb00150.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1985

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

This study tries to assess the risk of deaths and injuries from motor vehicle accidents associated with an evacuation of population groups in case of nuclear plant accidents. The risk per person–km is evaluated using: (a) data from previous evacuation: information from Soufriere evacuation (Guadeloupe Island 1976) and Mississauga (1979), added to Hans and Sell's data: no road accident occurred for a sample of 1,500,000 persons; (b) national recording system for motor vehicle accident: the rates of 2.2 10‐8deaths per person–km and 32 10‐8injuries per person–km is calculated as an average. These last rates in France overestimate the number of casualties. A reasonable hypothesis is to assume that the probability of road accident occurrence follows a Poisson distribution, as these events are independent and unfrequent, as no accident was observed in a sample of 1,500,000 persons the probability is between 0 and an upper value of 0.24 10‐8deaths per person‐km and 3.29 10‐8injuries per person–km. The average and maximum population involved within different radii around French and U.S. Nuclear power sites are taken as a sample size in order to study the total risk of deaths and injuries in the hypothesis of an evacuation being necessary to protec

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1985.tb00151.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1985

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

The management of health risk in the welding industry is considered based on a discussion of the major sources of harm to welders arising from their employment (e.g., accidents and inhalation of fumes and gases). It is shown that present methods neither enable the assessment of the societal and human costs involved, nor permit the specific association of delayed health effects to occupational fume exposures. Reported accidents usually occur early in the working experience and contribute to a large number of working days lost, while fume exposures may contribute to a reduction in life quality which is poorly defined. It is concluded that risk management can only be attempted after much more information is made available concerning the origin, nature, and duration of health effects, especially as related to individual welding technologies and applications.SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONSThe reduction of risk in the welding industry requires the development of an approach to risk management. Although it is difficult to demonstrate that welders on the average suffer excess risk when compared to similar skilled manual occupations, there is some evidence of possible high risk associated with certain welding operations: currently available information is extremely limited.It is extremely difficult to rank various types of potential risk. On the other hand it is possible to try to identify certain situations, individuals, combinations of circumstances which lead to excess occupational health risk.A complete picture of the risk infrastructure can be obtained by a proper survey of each enterprise. Steps can immediately be taken for the elimination of unnecessary risk, especially from accidents. The problems with respect to delayed health effects, especially cancer, are less tractable. In particular much effort must be placed in the strategies for the management of small excess risks of delayed health effects and large variations in inter‐individual risk susceptibilitie

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1985.tb00152.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1985

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

This article demonstrates a methodology that allows individuals to reach a personal decision on the use of products which carry very small risks to health and life but also offer considerable benefits. A combination of the principles of dominance, extended dominance, and various methods of direct risk–benefit tradeoffs are shown to reduce the number of possible decisions regarding product use to the one optimal for the value structure of a particular individual. An historical examination of toxic‐shock syndrome identifies tampons as a product with risks too small to warrant public intervention but too sizeable to be ignored. The methodology described here can be applied for all such produ

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1985.tb00153.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1985

数据来源: WILEY