ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1981.tb01347.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1981

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1981.tb01348.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1981

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1981.tb01349.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1981

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

A quantitative definition of risk is suggested in terms of the idea of a “set of triplets”. The definition is extended to include uncertainty and completeness, and the use of Bayes' theorem is described in this connection. The definition is used to discuss the notions of “relative risk”, “relativity of risk”, and “acceptabi

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1981.tb01350.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1981

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

The controversy over energy‐production risks is in part due to uncertainties and disagreements over the specification of these systems and their characteristics and in part due to the lack of a solid conceptual framework for comparisons between qualitatively different types of risks. The difficulties in specifying energy risks arise primarily from the necessity of using oversimplified descriptions of energy systems and their effects. The major simplifications include the use of marginal analysis (even when inappropriate), the omission of indirect risks, and the incorrect specification of the systems to be analyzed. Comparisons between qualitatively different risks are hampered by the lack of a solid basis for treating occupational risks relative to public risks, catastrophic risks versus chronic risks, and risks distributed differently in time. The difficult problems encountered when social values relating to risk change rapidly lead to delay and indecision. The choice of analytical simplifications and the specification of values systems for energy analysis are best made by considering the context and application of the analysi

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1981.tb01351.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1981

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1981.tb01352.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1981

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1981.tb01353.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1981

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1981.tb01354.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1981

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

We propose a procedure, suitable for regulatory use, for estimating individual and societal risks of carcinogenic materials by using information on interspecies comparisons of carcinogenic potency. The consistent treatment of uncertainties allows evaluation of confidence limits and hence regulatory measures of risk which incorporate safety factors and incentives for better information. Numerical examples are given, together with discussion of the treatment of undetected carcinogens. Applications of the procedure to setting priorities for carcinogenicity testing and to product substitution are mentioned.

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1981.tb01355.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1981

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1981.tb01356.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1981

数据来源: WILEY