ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1987.tb00962.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1987

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

This paper consists of an argument and a pilot study. First is a general, perhaps philosophical, argument against the National Academy's viewpoint(1)that dealing with risk is a two‐stage process consisting of (a) assessment of facts, and (b) evaluation of facts in sociopolitical context. We argue that societal risk intrinsically revolves around social relations as much as around evaluations of probability. Second, we outline one particular approach to analyzing societal risk management styles. We call this thefairness hypothesis.Rather than focusing on probabilities and magnitudes of undesired events, this approach emphasizes societal preferences for principles of achieving consent to a technology, distributing liabilities, and investing trust in institutions. Conflict rather than probability is the chief focus of this approach to societal risk management. This view is illustrated by a recent empirical pilot study that explored the fairness hypothesis in the context of new nuclear technologie

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1987.tb00963.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1987

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1987.tb00964.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1987

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

A “vertical” condensation scheme for discrete probability distribution (DPD) calculations is presented as an alternative to the earlier “horizontal” scheme, an example of which was presented recently by Kurth and Cox. When applied to DPDs over a space of curves, the vertical condensation results in a “regularization” of the “spaghetti” of curves that results from combination operatio

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1987.tb00965.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1987

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

System unavailabilities for large complex systems such as nuclear power plants are often evaluated through use of fault tree analysis. The system unavailability is obtained from a Boolean representation of a system fault tree. Even after truncation of higher order terms these expressions can be quite large, involving thousands of terms. A general matrix notation is proposed for the representation of Boolean expressions which facilitates uncertainty and sensitivity analysis calculations.

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1987.tb00966.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1987

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

A quantitative probabilistic/systems analysis model is described which is useful for allocating resources to safeguard valuable documents or materials in either a fixed‐site facility or a moving convoy against an overt terrorist attack. The model is also useful for ranking the sensitive areas at a site according to their survivability of a given hypothesized terrorist attempt. To compare various defense strategies and security configurations, the probability of a successful terrorist activity is computed based on event tree models of the site/security configuration. This calculation incorporates a realistic engagement model (in the event a guard force engages the terrorists prior to completion of their objective) and information on barrier penetration times (for example, distribution of the time to defeat a chain link fence or vault door, traverse an open area, and so forth). Two security analyses are described to illustrate the methodology. One example considers a terrorist attack on a convoy transporting a missile from a storage to a launch facility. The second example involves an attack on a munitions storage facilit

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1987.tb00967.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1987

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Fatality reductions from increases in safety belt use are estimated taking into account that drivers who change from being nonusers to being users have lower accident involvement rates than the remaining nonusers, a process referred to as “selective recruitment.” Analytical functions are derived which express expected fatality reductions in terms of changes in safety belt use rates from an initial rate. The function parameters are determined by requiring that computed average crash rates for nonusers be 53% higher than the rates for users, a recently determined empirical value. These functions show that, depending on the initial use rate and use rate increase, selective recruitment mayincreaseordecreaseexpected fatality reductions. However, effects are relatively small, in no case exceeding ±

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1987.tb00968.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1987

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

The potentially huge financial liability due to asbestos product suits and the resulting filings for reorganization in bankruptcy by Manville, UNR Industries, Inc., and Amatex, has become a major public policy concern. In response to the problem several bills have been introduced in the Congress to provide compensation for asbestos (and other occupational disease) victims. This paper estimates the cost of compensating asbestos victims under the provisions of the “Occupational Disease Compensation Act of 1983,” introduced by Congressman George Miller. Utilizing fatality projections from studies by Enterline, Selikoff, and Walker, and assumptions regarding likely claims filing and success rates, duration and degree of disability, and medical expenses, first year costs for this legislation are estimated to range from a low of $131 million to a high of $1.9 billion. Present value cost estimates at a 2% real discount rate range from $3 billion to $56 billion.The paper also estimates the impact of possible modifications to the compensation provisions of the legislation. Reducing medical payments by the amount received from medicare would lower costs by 3–4%. Providing survivors with a 3‐year lump sum benefit rather than a 5‐year lump sum payment would save 20–25% as would offsetting the 5‐year lump sum by expected social security old age and disability benefits. Combining all of these changes would reduce costs

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1987.tb00969.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1987

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Congress is currently considering adopting a mathematical formula to assign shares in cancer causation to specific doses of radiation, for use in establishing liability and compensation awards. The proposed formula, if it were sound, would allow difficult problems in tort law and public policy to be resolved by reference to tabulated “probabilities of causation.” This article examines the statistical and conceptual bases for the proposed methodology. We find that the proposed formula is incorrect as an expression for “probability and causation,” that it implies hidden, debatable policy judgments in its treatment of factor interactions and uncertainties, and that it can not in general be quantified with sufficient precision to be useful. Three generic sources of statistical uncertainty are identified—sampling variability, population heterogeneity, and error propagation—that prevent accurate quantification of “assigned shares.” These uncertainties arise whenever aggregate epidemiological or risk data are used to draw causal inferences about i

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1987.tb00970.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1987

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Calculations of attributable risks have attracted increasing interest recently. However, these efforts have been limited to mostly one agent, radiation, and no interactions with effects of other toxic agents have been taken into account. This paper outlines a generic approach to the calculation of attributable risks for an exposure to several toxic agents and interaction effects associated with them. In this calculation, the partition of interaction terms between the agents responsible is of particular importance. At present, there are no rules on how to assign equitable shares, so one methodology will be proposed and others discussed briefly. For one example of an assignment, the standard errors of the attributable risks are determined in terms of the uncertainties of the input parameters, thus setting the stage for a comparison of the different shares of responsibility.

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1987.tb00971.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1987

数据来源: WILEY