ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1989.tb01209.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1989

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1989.tb01210.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1989

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1989.tb01211.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1989

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1989.tb01212.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1989

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1989.tb01213.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1989

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1989.tb01214.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1989

数据来源: WILEY

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1989.tb01215.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1989

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

Bayesian methods can be very useful in modeling applications used in risk assessments. For example, a Bayesian analysis can be used to provide a probabilistic comparison of different probability models relative to a set of data, as well as to provide uncertainty bounds on the predictions from the various models. For more complex models or composite models, the Bayesian methods easily adapt to include the uncertainty on the weights associated with each of the models that comprise the composite model. Industry data representing the time to recovery of loss of off‐site power at nuclear power plants are used within this paper to demonstrate these aspects of Bayesian analysis.SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONSThe Bayesian based method presented in Section 3 for the calculation of posterior odds provides the analyst with a way of quantifying the adequacy of different probability models for a set of data, and thus replaces the subjectivity with an objective criterion. The methods presented in Sections 4 and 5 provide a basis for constructing uncertainty bounds for recovery/probability curves. These uncertainty bounds are useful in risk assessments. The bounds capture parametric uncertainties and uncertainties about relative frequencies of various initiators of events. The methods presented in Section 6 demonstrate how to modify a model to incorporate specific information about the site under stud

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1989.tb01216.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1989

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

The following situation has been considered: during an accident sequence, a crew has to do a proper set of actions within a finite time window in order to achieve a specific goal. The operator actions are considered independent, they are lined up in series, and a single failure leads to mission failure. This paper proposes a general methodology for assessing the crew response (or success) probability, through a convolution integral formulation. This method is general and can be applied to any response probability model; an application to the Human Cognitive Reliability model is given.

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1989.tb01217.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1989

数据来源: WILEY

摘要:

In this article quantitative analyses of CANDU nuclear generating stations are evaluated using an explicit set of criteria derived from a decision‐analytic framework. A systematic search was made for relevant analyses, including both risk assessments and economic analyses. Only a small number of scientifically sound quantitative analyses that are being used to make decisions about specific safety measures or projects were located. The availability of scientifically sound quantitative data for making major energy policy decisions is even more limited, and what is available has major shortcomings. The province of Ontario is now heavily dependent on nuclear energy. Given the uncertainties surrounding the health, environmental, economic, and social consequences of nuclear energy, there is a need to assemble the information that is available within a comprehensive decision‐making framework, and to decide future energy policies for the province in a public forum from a societal perspect

ISSN:0272-4332    

DOI:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1989.tb01218.x

出版商:Blackwell Publishing Ltd    

年代:1989

数据来源: WILEY